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Got offered 0.0143 on HL to sell my holding
The RNS states;
"The Company does not foresee that another offer to purchase Kun-Manie would be forthcoming in the event that the current offer is rejected"
Now lets put our buyer hat on for a second. If, like you have suggested Svidlov will wait until AMC is bust if this is rejected and there will be no other offers from other parties. Why would he make the offer in the first place, surely the smartest move for him would be to just wait it out? He'll get a better deal.
This is now his second offer. He improved the payment terms after we rejected the first offer and heavily discounted the offer price. Is it conceivable he is looking to buy this on the cheap due to current circumstances and has offered RY a nice golden parachute to walk off into the sunset with post this deal being accepted? is it conceivable he will make an improved offer if we reject on the principal that the offer price is ridiculous?
Everyone will make their own decision on these questions.
All IMO and based on my own circumstances.
Maestro,
No-one can disagree that the situation is currently dire. All of the companies you have stated who are moving out of russia are large international businesses that can move in and out of a county without materially damaging the overall business. Moving out of russia will not end Coca Cola, Mc Ds etc... Due to the situation in Russia presently it is best for these western companies to show they do not support Russia in their "special military operation" and rightly so.
Look how the world has changed in their view of russia in 6 months, no-one knows what the world will look like in another 6 or 12 months. Yes, it could be worse than today, but it could also be better. What your view is on this will ultimately decide whether you believe this is a good deal or not.
I do not believe we should be selling at the worst time and at the heavily discounted price presented to us. I think after this winter, the West and mother Russia will feel enough hurt and a deal will be struck to end it all. Purely based on the theory that it will cost both sides too much money to continue.
I'm happier to reject and wait for an improved offer.
Again, purely my own opinion, and entirely based on my own circumstances.
I think there is general consensus on the board that RY has never shown that shareholder value is his number 1 priority. There was general agreement that the last deal was structured in such a way that he would continue to be bank rolled for 10-15 years whilst the shareholder dividends of the deal on the table were not able to be specifically identified in that period.
As CEO, he is our representative on our side of the table for any negotiations with a potential buyer (in that case it was Mr Vladislav Sviblov of Stanmix Holding Ltd), so he will have had some input, directly or indirectly into how that deal was structured and presented to shareholders.
RY and the Board recommended shareholders vote in favour of this deal (See RNS dated 9th May).
That deal was rightly rejected.
I do not believe the rhetoric being spouted now about this being the last chance saloon and the imminent nationalisation (which he admits in Proactive interview (7:30), that there are news articles he's read that show a list of about 40 companies that DOES NOT include AMC that state these companies COULD lose their assets through nationalisation).
I am not convinced that RY when sitting across the same table with the SAME potential buyer (Mr. Vladislav Sviblov of Bering Metals LLC) has our best interests at the fore front of his mind when having conversations about how to present this to shareholders.
Just my tuppence worth.
Again, all in my opinion and based on my circumstances.
Maestro
I've spelled out very clearly why i voted no and that it is solely based on my own personal circumstance, so declaring what % of loss i am on makes no difference. Everyone will have their own opinion based on their own circumstances.
Your comment;
"Lets say by a miracle a new offer comes even though svidlov has said its his last offer."
Why is it such a miracle? Svidlov wouldn't be the best business man nor negotiator if he proposed a deal that left it open to the suggestion he will make a further improved offer if rejected...of course he has insisted this low ball offer is the final deal on the table!
I am interested to know more around this as it is something i may have missed;
"The russian govt wont allow it to go through, the 35m offer represents 25% value of the project. Russia will allow it but any higher i dont think so.. at the moment the russia are anti west.."
Can you point to any publication or statement that supports 25% of the value is a benchmark for acceptance? How is the "value" in this statement calculated? That would make sense why this offer has been made if you can show me something to support that statement.
@Gazz - I have an overarching fundamental view that this war / sanctions will sort itself out sooner rather than later. The west cannot sustain energy prices like we are seeing for much longer and if mother russia is feeling the pinch due to lower exports etc... a deal will be done to bring this all to an end where both sides will save face. My view is - lets ride this out for a while instead of selling at the bottom.
Again - this is all my own opinion and based on my own circumstances.
Voted no this morning, main reasons for doing so are;
1. I can't accept the price offered
2. Turning this offer down does not automatically mean we will not receive a better offer in future
3. Nobody knows what the world will look like in 6 to 12 months
4. I understand and can accept receiving no return is a possibility
5. I have written off this investment long ago and so I'm happier "gambling" for a better offer than accepting a low ball offer.
Dont forget, first offer was higher but was rejected due to the payments over 10 years. 3 to 4 months later we get another offer heavily discounted but with immediate dividend. Who is to say a rejection this time does not lead to a an improved offer with immediate dividend?
All IMO and based solely on my own personal circumstances.
Geng,
My view on any AIM share is that it is not an investment for long term "stable" growth. There are other investment vehicles more suited for that. Any investment i have in any AIM company, is, rightly or wrongly for the purpose of a potential larger return on my investment. More risk = more reward, so in that sense, yes this particular investment is more a "gamble" than the those i have in funds etc...
I never stated I'd rather lose everything than take some cash as that is not the option in front of us. I said im comfortable rejecting the deal with a view that a bigger return could be further down the line and i'm comfortable with the consequences if that view proves wrong.
Part of me completely agrees with the sentiment here about asset in Russia, we wont get a better deal etc...
Another part of me is thinking, im on a chunky loss here at 1.8p and it is a bargain price for the potential of the asset. Nobody knows what the world will look like in 6-12 months, rejecting the offer and sitting tight for a while could payout. I know that could result in a total loss of my investment but I (and I assume everyone who invests in AIM), have only invested what i can afford to lose. There is more potential upside than downside by rolling the dice. If I had to vote today, I'd reject the deal. Just my opinion on my own situation!!
Good afternoon Hairy Futtret,
Thanks for the sound advice. Whilst I share your opinion on the potential upside this company possesses, I think there's a good bit more reading / watching to go through before I put my chips on the table.
Have a good weekend,
bmcm
Hi V&G, thanks for the reply and advice. My original post was more about the opinion of others on the fundamentals of the company and "red flags" that i am missing that would stop me investing, as IMO it appears to be a good investment. I understand the fundamentals of investing and risks involved (i.e. losing every penny invest). Any opinion (based on fundamentals of the company) on why i should / shouldn't be snapping up shares at this SP is most welcome. bmcm
Speaking as novice investor, i've been (sporadically) following this share for a while from the sidelines and nearly pushed the buy button this morning. A lot to like about this company IMO. Well diversified portfolio of projects including various metals in various countries at various stages of exploration. The CEO is the largest shareholder (i think i heard in a recent video), so he's heavily invested and the market communication is great. I'll admit i haven't read through every RNS or understand a lot of the mining detail (novice investor still learning), but what are the red flags here or whats the opinion on why this is not attractive at current SP levels? Thanks bmcmc
Thanks all for the responses. More patience required by the looks of it. I nearly wished the fundamentals of this project were worse as id'd have cut my losses long ago. I still cling onto the view that this will come good, or maybe it's the fear that within a week of hitting sell an RNS will appear that changes everything.
Best of luck all.
Hi all, relatively long term holder in AMC (5years). I share the general resentment towards the BOD and the lack of any communication. Not good enough really. I want to believe (ever the optimist) in some of the theories around takeover discussions etc... Query i have is, if these were taking place and the reason for the silence was due to some sort of NDA in place, does this not need to be communicated to the market? Apologies if i've missed something or this has been discussed recently as i sporadically check into the board.
bmcm