Member Info for BlueSky72

Great update!

2 more buys for me 91,177 and 31,493 so that takes my holdings to 1,127,398 and still accumulating at these bargain basement prices!

Atb

Blue

Not helped though by someone dropping 100k chunks on a regular basis.

Tomorrow is the last day to call the general meeting by the intended date of 30.4.26 per the RNS of 1.4.26

I understand there has been a 1 or 2 weeks of delays with all that is happening for Nick and co and no AIM submission doc is yet available so it’s unlikely to move to AIM this month again all IMO.

Hold tight!

Atb

Blue

AI reply to my questions;

Even if the conflict ended today and the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately, a global helium crisis would likely persist for several months due to severe infrastructure damage and logistical bottlenecks.

Impact of Immediate Reopening

Infrastructure Damage: QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan Industrial City (responsible for ~30–38% of global supply) has sustained direct damage from Iranian missile and drone strikes. Repairs are estimated to take weeks to months for full resumption, with some reports suggesting capacity for certain LNG lines could be sidelined for 3–5 years.

Logistical "Whiplash": Roughly 200 specialized ISO cryogenic containers are currently stranded in the region. Because these containers are rare (costing ~$1 million each), repositioning them to other global sources (like the U.S. or Russia) to bridge the gap would take at least 3 months.

Supply Chain "Tsunami": The disruption is described as a "tsunami" that is currently offshore; because major chipmakers operate on long-term contracts and existing inventories, the physical shortage will hit the production floor with a delay even after the war stops.

The 45-Day vs. 6-Month Storage Paradox

The apparent contradiction between the "45-day storage limit" and reports of "6-month stockpiles" at companies like Samsung or TSMC is explained by how helium is stored and measured:

The 45-Day Limit (Liquid Phase): Helium is most efficiently transported and used as a cryogenic liquid (-268.9°C). The 45-day limit refers to the duration a standard ISO container can maintain these temperatures before the liquid "boils off" into gas and must be vented for safety.

The 6-Month Stockpile (Strategic Buffer):

Gaseous Storage: Unlike liquid, helium in gas form can be stored indefinitely in high-pressure steel cylinders without boiling off. However, the volume stored this way is much smaller.

Recycling Systems: Modern "advanced fabs" in Taiwan and Korea have installed high-efficiency recycling systems that recover 90–95% of the helium used during etching and cooling. This "6-month supply" often refers to how long their on-site reserves plus recycled gas can sustain operations at reduced or prioritized capacity.

Diversified En Route Supply: Some of that "6 months" includes shipments that were already at sea and rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds about 10–14 days to delivery but preserves the liquid state for part of the journey.

AND YET HERE WE ARE, LANGUISHING AT A MERE £8.5M MCAP HAVING DROPPED A FEW PERCENT TODAY? HMMM

Atb

Blue

HANDLE……… ………………………………..SHARE HOLDINGS

Trek……………………………………………..800,000

RKB……………………………………………1,000,000

Barnsley.........................................................1,771,185

Supra3,....,..........................................................894365

Turnthecorner……………………………………798496

Bluesky72………………………………………..1004728

I’m in for 1,004,728 and still accumulating…and yes I need to do something about rounding that odd number!

Happy Easter all

Blue

Fort Dodge developments raking priority and rightly so. Build the offering and the sp will react accordingly. Timing is everything!

DYOR

ATB

Blue

Yep I grabbed 50k and 44822 top ups early doors. I plan to get more later. Helium prices surely expected to see a significant rise in the foreseeable so the RTO and the twin well can’t come soon enough!

Atb

Blue

At a £25 million market cap, your 3p shares would be worth approximately 10.35 pence each, representing a 245% gain. Even if the company performs a significant AIM fundraising, your position would likely remain over 100% in profit, provided the market cap holds at £25m.

Is this a fair assessment RK Beekeeper et all?

What mcap do you really expect MDH to RTO at and potentially reach in the near term post AIM listing also assuming for the minute that the twin well is successful? I personally believe that 10 pence is possible given the known information but many multiples of the current 3p price seem wildly optimistic to me at this point.

ATB all!

Blue

Part 3

So lets consider if there were to be a £25m market cap post RTO and AIM submission instead of say £15m as stated in part 2 (now that roughly represents a x 6.25 uplift from the current mcap…is that realistic? Maybe, maybe not);

If Mendell Helium (MDH) achieves a £25 million Market Cap upon AIM admission, then at this valuation, the company would move from being a "speculative shell" into a recognised junior producer.

Here is the impact on your holdings, including the £300k CLN conversion and the July 19th warrant exercises.

Share Price Calculation at £25m

Using our calculated "July 2026" enlarged share base of 241,601,552 shares:

£25m divided by 241,601,552 shares = 10.35p

Profit on a 3p average share cost lets say: +245% (a 3.45x return).

The "Mandatory Exercise" Factor

At a price of 10.35p, almost every outstanding warrant and option becomes profitable. Crucially, it triggers the mandatory exercise clauses mentioned in recent filings: The 4p Warrants: Holders must exercise if the price stays above 10p for 5 days. This injects cash into the company’s bank account but adds those shares to the market.The 6p Warrants: These are also "deep in the money."

The Effect: You would likely see a period of "churn" at this price level as early warrant holders (who paid 4p) sell to bank a 150% profit, creating a temporary ceiling. But there's nothing to suggest that the likes of Nick Tulloch for example deciding to sell that point so I am assuming that he won't.

Is a £25m Market Cap Justified?

To sustain a £25m valuation, the market is looking for more than just the current Rost well. Investors would be pricing in:

Revenue Growth: Successful execution of the "Twin Well" program to double or triple the current $1.4m annual revenue estimate.

Proven Reserves: A transition from "contingent resources" to "proven reserves" (P1/P2) via a Competent Person’s Report (CPR).

Peer Parity: Helium One (HE1) and Georgina Energy have historically fluctuated between £15m and £60m based on drilling news. A £25m cap would place Mendell firmly in the "serious contender" category on AIM.

Dilution Sensitivity (The "Hidden" Raise)

It is highly probable that Mendell will raise new capital at the point of AIM admission to fund the next phase of drilling.

Scenario Total Shares Price at £25m Cap

No New Raise 241.6m 10.35p

£2m Raise @ 5p (40m new shares) 281.6m 8.87p

£5m Raise @ 5p (100m new shares) 341.6m 7.31p

Even in the most dilutive "High Raise" scenario, a current 3p average remains in a very strong position with over 140% profit. Not saying that MDH will raise as the exercise of warrants as already outlined will provide a significant fresh capital injection, but they will in the minority if they don’t so the values here are only indicative to demonstrate the likely effe

Part 2 cont;

Warrant Overhang: While a 6.21p price is great for you (assuming an AIM day 1 market cap of £15m), it triggers the mandatory exercise of 4p and 6p warrants. This creates a "wall" of new paper that must be absorbed by the market before the price can climb much higher.

Part 2:

I have made some assumptions here about potential market cap uplifts upon AIM listing post RTO to gauge the effect of being a shareholder with an average cost of 3 pence as that is about the current market price;

First of all, lets consider the affect of dilution to the current shareholders assuming that the 4p and 6p warrants are exercised together with the CLN conversion (£300k at 3 pence prior to RTO) per what you and I believe RK Beekeeper;

If Mendell Helium (MDH) achieves a £15 million market capitalisation upon AIM admission for arguments sake (this is purely speculation), a 3p average for retail investors would be substantially "in the money."

Based on the expanded share structure—including the M3 Helium acquisition, the £300,000 CLN conversion, and the mandatory 4p/6p warrants due by July 19th—here is how that valuation would translate to share price;

The Post-RTO "July 2026" Share Count

Assuming all major near-term dilutive instruments are exercised or converted prior to the July deadline:

Current Shares: 148,990,000

M3 Acquisition: 57,611,552

CLN Conversion (at 3p): 10,000,000

Warrant/Adviser Exercises (Est): ~25,000,000

Total Enlarged Capital: ~241,601,552 shares

Share Price at a £15 Million Market Cap

Dividing a £15,000,000 valuation by the estimated 241.6 million shares results in a share price of:

Result: ~6.21 pence

At this level, your 3p average would have more than doubled (+107%).

Is a £15m Market Cap Realistic?

For a revenue-generating helium producer, £15m is often considered a "mid-tier" valuation on AIM.

Revenue Support: M3 Helium's Rost 1-26 well has shown flow rates capable of generating approximately $1.4 million (£1.1m) in annual revenue. A £15m market cap would represent a price-to-sales multiple of roughly 13.6x.

Peer Comparison: This is significantly lower than the historical peak valuations of peers like Helium One (HE1), which reached market caps of £100m+ on exploration speculation alone. Achieving £15m would likely depend on the "Twin Well" successfully increasing production volumes as planned.

The conversion of CLNs prior to the RTO at 3p effectively "locks in" a group of sophisticated investors at the same price point close to the current purchase price of around 3 pence per share as of Friday 27.2.26. While this increases the number of shares that can be sold, it also provides the company with the debt-free balance sheet required for AIM admission.

Key Risks to This Valuation

The "Admission Fundraise": RTOs on AIM almost always involve a fresh "Placing" to raise working capital (e.g., £2m–£5m). If Mendell issues another 100m shares at 2.5p to raise cash during admission, the total share count would jump to ~341m, dropping the share price at a £15m cap to ~4.4p. That may not be the case for a change with MDH so I am not saying that this will happen in this instance but still be open minded about that.

Part 1

Many thanks for taking the time to outline all of that useful information RK Beekeeper, which is much appreciated.

So one might wonder why there seems to be plenty of cornerstone investors that are willing to put even more money in looking at the recent fund raises.

Well, the individuals participating in Mendell’s fundraises prior to the RTO completion receive specific incentives designed to mitigate the risk of owning equity in a company that currently only holds debt and options aside from the potential upside post RTO and AIM listing:

Tax Relief (EIS): Mendell has received Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) advance assurance from HMRC. This provides UK investors with significant benefits, including 30% income tax relief, capital gains tax (CGT) exemption after three years, and loss relief. Not to be sniffed at!

Loan Asset Protection: Mendell has provided approximately US$1.5 million in loans to M3 Helium. If the RTO completes, these become intragroup loans; if it fails, Mendell remains a creditor of M3 Helium, which is now a revenue-generating producer (notably from the Rost well).

Lets also consider that the December 2025 CLN carries a 10% coupon rate, payable half yearly. Pretty reasonable.

3 pence appears to be the floor.

Thank you RK Beekeeper. Much appreciated :)

ATB all!

Blue

Mmm can hardly say I’m surprised at all and been saying that for a long time. If the extension is for 3 months again then we will be pretty much at 2 years, yes you read that right…2 years since the initial concept of an RTO was reported.

RK Beekeeper, from what you’ve said over time, perhaps you know Nick better than most having attended annual shareholder meetings and even intended to look at one of ECR’s mines, although you have not reported being an insider, so can I ask what your opinion is about the prospect of actually completing an RTO within the next 2 months maximum please. Much appreciated.

ATB

Blue

Fair assessment Punter1234

ATB

Blue

Hi Trek,

I hold Hex and MDH and there is a gulf between the mcap of both. However, the same could be said about the CEO of both companies. One definitely is more professional yet the other one comes across as a bit of a Del Boy with lots of money making ideas yet none have actually come to fruition yet. It will convert to AIM…one day Rodders ;)

I spoke to Barclays on Tuesday and I was reliably informed that they had suspended trading this share as it would appear that there were a large number of small volume trades placed ‘at best’ on the sell side and they were concerned about market manipulation. That halted trading.

Make of that what you will.

Usual caveats

Blue

Likewise. Careful of the de rampers appearing now. Of course it will retrace after a decent rise. Nothing wrong with those in at a lower price taking some profits.

Left holding at 2p lol.

Dyor of course. Read the back story and where this could go.

ATB

Blue

In at 5.869p …and in with a fair chunk at low 6’s. Cheers Charles Archer!

ATB

Blue

Thanks for that Bonker99. Helpful reminder of the reasons for being invested here…

Atb all!