Member Info for bluerill

Goodness me, a little knowledge can certainly be a dangerous thing, although 'little' may be generous in relation to your 'insights', Mr Junkie (as for what it says about you, My Brother(7), who would cynically 'thank' the Junkie for those 'insights', I really couldn't say at this point. Not sure my normal rankings don't go that low).
In a nutshell, Mr Junkie's comments on all matters accounting and debt are stuff and nonsense. Though it is mostly Sid-level gobbledygook, his main accusation is dangerously phony. The corporate structure in which San Leon maintains its economic interest in OML18 is not particularly simple, but nor is it worthy of an advanced degree, and is certainly not there to allow anyone involved to try and deceive auditors or regulators. The loan that has been taken to temporarily make Eroton/Midwestern's now obligatory 19m quarterly payments (of which all 4 for the past year have bang on time) to SLE has been taken out by Jite Okuloku, Eroton's head, and is strictly his and Eroton's obligation alone. The terms of that loan do not appear anywhere in San Leon's results because, you know, like, because IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH SAN LEON. Not, unbelievably as Mr Junkie implies, because somehow, somewhere Oisin and Co have pulled the wool over some gullible auditor's eyes. Every single mention of the total amounts owed to SLE, in every financial document yet published, show the total to be the original principal loaned PLUS 17% per annum on that amount over the assumed roughly 2 1/2 years needed to repay it. Furthermore, Jite/Eroton are able to borrow the monies necessary in the first place, clearly, because as Friday's results, and many previous RNSs have articulated, the fund meant to pay SLE in the first place - ie., one that accrues cash from actual oil production - has substantial funds in it already (If memory serves, that total is something like 40m; less than hoped due to production disruption, etc, but still substantial). But as even those of us don't manage the kind of micro-analysis of our Junkie friend employs, that pool of cash cannot be used yet by Eroton to pay us because of the restrictions Eroton itself have on their other Reserve Based Lending (ie., the requirement that the Nigeria government get current with their arrears payments to Eroton first, a condition not yet, but an issue well understood by now by SLE shareholders).
That's it. Nothing more and nothing sinister. Come Monday, San Leon will have some 1/4 of its market cap in the one thing that all genuine financial analysts agree is both what is most difficult to fake and is therefore prized above all - CASH. And there is (much) more on the way.
[Quick note on Junkie's rubbish on the re-valuation of the OML asset in the 2016 results: either you understand that SLE bought their 10% stake in OML18 for near-nothing in 2015 when oil was crashing, which would then require a significant reval in the next year's results, or you live under a bridge

I can't be bothered reading all the under-bridge dwellers who power their vacuous observations with bile from their own investment mistakes that they are unable or unwilling to face up to. Reminds of bitter old men shouting at the neighbourhood kids to 'Get off my property'! lol indeed

That's not correct. What this portion is conveying is that because Midwestern/Eroton have been current now with 4 consecutive quarterly payments (Help me out here, Sid. Since I'm sure that you have doomsday-ed non-payment multiple times in the past, how does that fit into to your perfect prediction record narrative in your imagination?), even if payments stop from here, the company will NOT be a going concern risk. This is not only because the company will enjoy a net cash position of around 30m, with no material cash requirements, but also because the auditors recognize that should MLPL become non-compliant at any point, San Leon's collateral claims against Eroton are legally airtight and would represent value far in excess of the funds owed them.
As for Suntrust, not only does this section not refer to their 'claim' against the company, but that 'claim' is not mentioned anywhere in today's release that I could see. This effectively means the auditors have deemed this 'risk\ to be a nothing burger. No matter how ridiculous the claim on its face, the auditors would have been compelled to research its merits thoroughly, and had they deemed it to have any merit at all, they may well have been compelled to include one of those blanket 'going concern' warnings, an always possibility Mr Sid so helpfully provided worried shareholders recently in his usual spirit of selfless prognostication. No doubt he was hurt that no one bothered to thank him at the time, but if it's not too late: Way to go fella!

I think you'll get an RNS mon/tues confirming the company have received the full amount on time and the cash on hand has then risen to nearer 30mm

OK, Hands up. You got me, Brother. I'm a double-posting double agent working from the shadows, engaged in a pernicious effort to spread accurate information and reasoned analysis for San Leon shareholders. And in that effort, I find myself responding to a near-actionable bit of mis-information proffered by another poster containing objectively false and misleading information, which he then generously uses to draw a completely bogus conclusion. But I guess that kind of craven, self-serving behaviour is ok with you as long as the writer doesn't call people names and posts a lot.

I hope I don't have to post the link in order to try and project financial compaetence, so I'll just direct you to the company's response(s) on its website. The government 'letter' you linked is a boilerplate response that any party such as Suntrust can request. It has no standing legally and in fact, because the transfer was an economic one and not an equity one, SLE's and Eroton's lawyers are clear that no such government approval was required. However, even if it were, permission can be sought and granted as point 5. in your 'letter' articulates. As for the the most egregious part of your original post, the 'null and void' declaration, that remains a figment of your overactive imagination of course. If that little ditty were even close to the truth in fact, then the shares would have collapsed already, no questions asked. Instead, the market is waiting pretty patiently for yet another awkward bump in the road for SLE (I certainly never claimed they run a tight ship. This is very annoying, but nowhere near the fiction you're promoting) to be traversed. How's that?? You've been schooled (again) without any insults. Ah, what the heck....you're a keyboard muppet and you should stick to barking at the moon. Sorry. Couldn't help myself

My goodness junkie, that may be the most corrupt mix of ignorant drool and malignant fake news I've ever read. I'll cover the accounting drool sometime later on when I, but for now let's dispense with the outright falsehood: the Nigerian government has made absolutely no declaration whatsoever about the legality or otherwise of the share transaction and therefore certainly not judged it 'null and void'!!! How can you dare write such objectively mendacious nonsense? Suntrust haven't even filed the necessary paperwork fully with the court and thus the 2nd 'charge' remains so in an online newspaper only, as SLE moves to have the whole silly thing thrown out altogether. Very, very bad, Mr Junkie. You should more careful in future before mixing malice and ignorance.

why, thankyou much. On reflection, I fancy my Brother7 plays a very advanced version of nyah, nyah, ne, nyah, nyah

oooh, I see what you did there. 'blue rinse' is like a clever conversion of 'bluerill' meant to indicate your disdain for me by implying I'm an old lady. yeah, good one. Meantime, think about what a thoroughly pointless exercise you are 'looking forward to...'; namely, waiting for disappointing news of some sort so you can 'refute' my analysis, sorry 'jam tomorrow posts'. Rich life.

Christ man, is this some sort of fetish where you type some random nonsense and then wait for me to correct you? Would you like me to tell you to go sit on the naughty step until you're able to make a relevant point? Does that do it for you? Better you step away from the keyboard and read a newspaper. Come back when you have something remotely coherent to say......

I don't know about 8 years ago, but I do know how easy it is for humans to let the disappointment over past losses to poison their reasoning ability. This is especially common for small investors who are essentially amateurs when it comes to understanding equity valuation and the stock market generally. What I don't understand is how, as with the remaining nabobs like this B7 and blackswan, they not only continue to marinate in that disappointment and reject honest analysis that might help them avoid mistakes in the future. And then, to compound that mistake, they take up Trumpian-inspired positions as noble Cassandras who are here to tell you that somehow the share's lousy history is more relevant than math. A healthy dose of skepticism is always useful. But what you guys just can't get through your concrete melons is that the market is way ahead of you. With the shares trading well below cash + highly credible future cash payments, EVERYTHING you keep banging on about is ALREADY IN THE SHARE PRICE. At best therefore, your constant history lessons + sixth form finance comments are utterly redundant.

Well frus, you're right about one thing; you are pretty stupid. The problem is, you don't seem to want to become less so. Instead, you seem to want to split your time between sharing financial information gleaned, I'm guessing, from the back of a cereal box, to playing message board detective. I have a life, so I post on a few names, very occasionally. But when I do, I make sure I know what I'm writing about and what I write is relevant and as accurate as I can make it. You might try it some time.

My goodness, you're an ignorant little terrier, aren't you? The appointment of a heavyweight like Cantors as joint broker and NOMAD is an undeniable positive progression for the company. Show me how many other �150m O&G companies that Cantors have taken up coverage of, instead of devolving immediately into spitting poison? Rather, this is much more accurately seen as Cantor's endorsement of sle's path to reaching the sort of size that would make taking on such an appointment worthwhile for them (ie., a market cap in excess of �500m). Otherwise, as has been documented in multiple media outlets over the past few years, the FCA hassles and myriad costs of servicing struggling small caps - particularly in the resource space - are simply not worth the couple hundred grand a year in fees for broker-dealers like Cantors and they are in fact DROPPING such clients in record numbers currently rather than accepting them.

Wow, brothers7, you really don't let ignorance stand in the way of sharing bilious little opinions, do you? You know less than nothing about the current RTO negotiations, as they are correctly conducted in complete secrecy (note the lack of updates on this deal in the few RNSs - all of them highly positive by the way - we've had in the past few months. While frustrating, that is completely in line with AIM rules and a perhaps an overly diligent NOMAD engaged to enforce them). This deal is locked down, with no leaks, and in short, that is good for shareholders on the balance of probabilities. Specifically, since we know for a fact that San Leon's main negotiating partner is now 3 consecutive quarterly payments into remaining compliant on the repayment of the outstanding loan, and those payments have clearly served to put sle into its strongest ever financial position, one can reasonably assume that the talks drag on at least in part because our reps are in a position to push for a better deal, or at least be more prepared to walk away from a lesser deal than they might have been had all this cash not come in on time. Terms of the current deal? Will it be deemed an RTO? Who is set to run any enlarged group? How will assets developed or acquired after any deal, such as the proposed pipeline, be divided among the parties should there be a deal? Why would some bitter wag post '...Won�t be anytime soon for a number of reasons .GL...' without having the slightest idea what's going on? I don't know the answer to any of that, nor multiple other important issues. What I do know - aside from the economics of San Leon and a fair bit about takeovers - is what I don't know, and that will always distinguish me from bad actors like (oh brother)7.

thx so much for the kind words, QF, though i suspect that spirit may not always prevail on this board as I continue to fire back at some of the nonsense I've been reading these past few months

Mr Book-Worm-while I'm sure IIs here love your enthusiasm, and I certainly agree with posters like you that understand that - based on the current evidence that Avabone have been paid off, Eroton are current with their payments, OML18 production is rising again, and the NNPC are making arrears payments - our share price will re-open materially higher, I don't think you understand how a reverse takeover actually works. Right now the negotiations taking place between SLE/Tosca and Jite Okuloku's group, and possibly others, involves the EXCHANGE of assets by SLE - principally the near-$200m in principal and interest still owed to it - for hard assets such as a greater permanent stake in OML18 as well as other highly prospective acreage, of (much) greater value, and hopefully, some cash as well. The result will be a company that is currently valued at �100m (a fall from �200m remember which was entirely precipitated by the market's wild overreaction to the Avabone threat, which of course was eliminated while the shares were suspended) emerging from suspension with no debts, cash on hand of anywhere from �20m upwards, and producing and prospective assets (remember SLE starts with its 9.75% economic interest in OML18) valued at significant more than the $200m bond they've foregone (though speculating on the precise value of those assets received is somewhat tricky until we see an RNS of course). I'll discuss how I think the shares will be valued in a later post (inevitably the market will put a discount on even the most conservative valuations, at least early on), but the obvious conclusion is A LOT HIGHER, though not in the �2-�3 range I'm afraid - at least not right away! The result of all this however, is that SLE ends up receiving assets of cash and acreage far in excess to what it gives up, thus the deal gets deemed a REVERSE takeover. Among the very many things that the bears on this board either refuse or truly don't seem to understand (the value of SLE's 4.5% NPI after the Barryroe farmout anyone?) is that Tosca/SLE are in the driver's seat here, and that Jite's Eroton group not only need this deal (paying SLE E19m/Q for the next 2 1/2 years cannot be an exciting prospect when growth opps are everywhere and cash is king), but may also want it. One big reason for this is something you have already mentioned, Mr Book-Worm: namely that the combined company after the RTO will be a midcap producer the size of a Genel, inevitably listed on the LSE's main board, with a combined Nigerian and western BOD. This can mean greater access to western capital markets and thereby a real avenue to growth for local entrepreneurs like Okuloku, since as we all know, some of the world's most prolific acreage surrounds fields like OML18. Partly as a result of such a strong negotiating position, its my contention that this deal will result in creating substantial shareholder value. More later including why our 62% shareho