RE: Guest appearance2 Jul 2018 13:27
Phew, I don't know where to start, Frus. I certainly don't 'mind' answering your question(s) in principle, but I have to admit it makes me cringe a bit that you would ask it in the first place. You do realise that I can lie, rendering anything I might write virtually meaningless? In addition, I sense you're not really interested in my answer as you 'asked' simply as a means to vent and effectively advance the same uneconomic, ultimately redundant, argument that the collection of yappy puppies I've been going back and forth with the past couple of days have: namely, that past poor performance by the Company is self evidently the best guide for measuring future outcomes. Essentially you are saying that because of a history of failed efforts in Poland, etc, by SLE one should discount completely or even ignore altogether, vetted financial information, cash in the bank, and perhaps most of all, a formal commitment to a credible dividend policy that would make a mockery of the current share price. Fair enough I guess, I just think that's uniquely self-defeating. For me, no matter when i first got involved, what my exposure may be, what the phase of the moon is, or yes, even what Oisin and Co's history of failure, that that is an objectively silly way to approach analysing a shareholding/potential investment. I've said before, but I'll point out again: everything your are legitimately but almost exclusively focused on, is profoundly evident to everyone; in other words, your insights are the most likely issues to already be fully discounted in the share price. It is in fact, the upside story, however - largely comprised of the issues I have tried to highlight - that comprises the majority of the outcomes that are much less likely to have been already discounted. That, in my view, is what makes this an attractive, asymmetrical opportunity.
For the record: I got involved on and after the original suspension and placement at 45p, attracted by 1. the deal itself which I felt was a huge value creator especially as they bought the asset with the oil price on its knees; 2. Martin Hughes- someone I have enormous respect for - and his full backing of the deal, management and the shares and 3. the 'special situation' nature of the new SLE's commitment to pay out a material amount of free cash to shareholders, which I believed at the time, and believe more so now, is the only way, broadly speaking, for AIM-sized commodity company's to approach having a publicly-listed share price, as traditional investment pools are increasingly shunning the sector. Take all that as you will....