Member Info for bluerill

Don't be a wise guy. I absolutely was not apologising

Excellent replies everyone; unfortunately this isn't some kind of socialist idyll where seniority (ie., if you've posted lots and lots of times so you must know what you're talking about) or being really, really angry, protects you from simple corrections. Or worse. The basic problem here is you guys don't understand the basics, ie., how a board assesses takeover approaches, what's required to be announced and what can be withheld, etc. There is so much ignorant ranting that goes on on boards like this just on the subject of Boards of Directors and how far their responsibilities extend and more importantly, don't, that it often isn't worth correcting all the long-standing misinformation. So of course I'm a shareholder, but I'm choosy as to when to suffer fools. Specifically, on the re-listing rants: I did think the Company had already 'clarified' its relationship with Citic in another RNS, but I see that they haven't. That obviously has to come out before they can or will re-list. So yes, I concede it may not be tomorrow morning to the minute, but as I assume this is relatively routine, I would expect it to delay it for only a very short time. That does not change my basic position however: none of the other reasons the fever dream crowd has sighted is or will delay the re-listing, nor will there be any knock-out bid for the company during suspension, without establishing a market price FIRST. Just not the way these things work. Just the humble, old citic RNS and then we're good to go, and tomorrow morning remains more likely than not. And when they do start to trade again, the shares will probably trade materially higher, particularly bc i agree that there probably are a few decent short positions desperate to cover. Then they'll find a level from where they will move either higher or lower based on some really dull things (the FTSE, the PD price, etc) and/or some more exciting ones (rumours about who the interested parties are, interest from hedge funds possibly, etc). That's it though, fellas. There is nothing new under the sun, certainly not in stock markets, and certainly not in this case.

I get it. I'm mean. But try and think before you post and I won't have to be

Ginger - Patronising, no. Teaching, yes. Difference, very little I admit. Try and reason this one through. Nothing you wrote makes any sense in fairness. The FTSE is LWER than it was b4 the suspension and so is Pd as was mentioned; if there were a formal bid submitted already, rejected or otherwise, it would have, and in some cases MUST have, already been announced. There was none bc there is none, just a bid process which is being led by a major Investment Bank. EVERYONE involved, save a few on this board I guess, is waiting for the shares to re-list to see what 'value' the market puts on the company. Seriously. End of.

This is almost funny. Every time I try to answer the errors in 4-5 responses, 5-10 more popped up. First, I'm not trying to p*ss on anyone's fever dream, just trying to give anyone reading some insights. When the process is over, in my mind, the company could well be sold at a multiple of the current suspension price. There is valuation upside versus historical deals + multiple parties are always a welcome sign, etc. Next, I'm not expecting to make new any friends here but too many of the sharper respondents (read: angry, but not so clever) did not begin by actually reading what I wrote. I never came close to saying that any winning bid for this or any public company need end up anywhere near the undisturbed or early market levels after a bid is announced. What I wrote, and its both true and crucial, so cool the hate and try and learn something, is that the public share price pre-and-post announcement is a crucial, invaluable starting point for any and all potential bidders. It has always been thus from the beginning of markets. Period. End of. Absolutely nothing controversial in that. (In the case of private companies of course, the same role is played by the price paid in the most recent funding round, though the dynamics are completely different). As for ShareAnorak's comment on suspension, it is largely irrelevant to this situation. Sure the shares can and will suspend periodically AFTER they re-list as trading will doubtless be sloppy for a while, but it will settle down quickly. The only thing that matters is that there is now no longer any statutory reason for suspension to continue. In fact, a 'disorderly market' may be the reason the shares haven't re-listed already today, since the news of the offer period came out DURING market hours and the advisors et al may well have convinced the relevant oversight parties that re-quoting during the day after such a long suspension would prove unnecessarily 'disorderly'. In that event, they may have been allowed to remain suspended for the rest of today so that market participants - like on forums like this one! - can have a bit more time to reflect on and digest the news, so that there is a better hope for a more orderly re-opening the next morning.

just trying to help small shareholders better understand how market (and deals) works

My goodness, there's a lot of blue sky fever here. Couple of things: the shares aren't going to remain suspended until there's a 'bid'. First off, there's really no such thing as 'staying in suspension' in these circumstances. As has been said, the company has no statutory means to remain suspended any longer, so if it doesn't re-quote in the next hour or so, you can ably assume that it will be tomorrow morning. Second, the clearing share price in the public market - after all relevant permissible information has been released of course - no matter how chaotic and short-term imperfect it may be, is in fact the single most important metric available to any party involved in the offer process. it is effectively the starting point for negotiations. In other words, even sophisticated strategics (e.g., one of the relevant mining majors say) use a premium to the undisturbed price (ie., 7.5p) and then to the average price over a certain timeframe during the 'offer period' as critical inputs in working out where to ultimately pitch their bid range if , of course, they decide to. If that seems a bit primitive and frankly, ass-backwards, it is. Finally, my advice is don't order the Ferraris just yet. This is a post-covid world where even Pd is no longer as precious as it once was and more importantly, corporates are far more circumspect in making even strategic acquisitions. 'Multiple interested parties' is certainly music to any shareholders' ears, as you can't have price friction without competition, but its a not-so-brave new world and there are a whole bunch of shareholders who aren't on this board who may very not share the consensus blue-sky view here, especially after what must have seemed a lifetime of waiting for the shares to re-list.

sure. hope it works:

https://mcusercontent.com/a4493f9dc4a9381a0b85898b8/files/4342d14e-e55b-46ed-bb43-a1881cdb2b3b/Invinity_initiation_note_June_30th_2020.pdf

from VSA Capital, hot off the press: Recommendation and Target Price -
Our peer group analysis supporting a DCF valuation sets an indicative valuation
range of £180m-£200m which implies 255p-283p/sh. versus the current price
of 119p (£84.1m). If Invinity achieve our 2022 forecasts and therefore scale,
the future valuation could become substantially higher. We initiate coverage
with a Buy recommendation and Target Price of 269p/sh.

BS - how do you consistently manage to construct posts which are simultaneously soaringly banal and infuriatingly obnoxious? You're genetically incapable of ever posting about this company without including some snarky slur, usually directed at Oisin, so you share your greatest hit about him historically being well compensated, blah, blah, blah. Fine, if that's what cranks your chain. But what, in the name of jabba the nut, is that moronic riff about Oisin's 'laptop interview'? First of all, maybe you haven't noticed, but in the age of Covid, EVERY interview is done on a laptop. Second, that interview, in addition to being extremely informative and by extension, VERY professional, is evidently part of a larger marketing/PR effort at the company to promote the sle equity story more broadly to retail investors - after having been lobbied to do so for years by large shareholders by the way - and you know what?, it is clearly working. Oisin has now done multiple, detailed interviews with several of the best-followed financial bloggers, received significant endorsements from all of them, and the shares are starting to seriously outperform (now up 10% ytd with Friday's big move) in an otherwise continued dire environment for small oil and gas equities. Finally, what does 'with his recent massive increase in shareholding for which he was presumably given the nod and consent to purchase by Tosca' even mean? The CEO bought 1/3 of his largest institutional shareholder's controlling stake in the Company at the market price. End of. No one 'nodded' anything to anyone, except maybe a gesture of mutual appreciation for a transaction that suited both at that time and benefits all shareholders for the enormously positive message it sends about the Company's near- and long-term prospects.

Notice the comment early on re 'the loan principle having been repaid' early on and share it with jabba over on advfn:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZ8Q-7EGUBc&feature=youtu.be

As alaric writes on the other board, a conservative estimate now, assuming little or no leakage or theft, would be an almost immediate initiation of production dividends to SLE that would total near-£30m annually, before any more production increases. More soon

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/922729/san-leon-energy-highlights-strong-cash-position-eyes-market-for-opportunity-922729.html

No one really follows Barryroe here anymore because it is simply a free call within sle's ancillary asset base; ie., it is not valued in the share price at all and of course requires no financial obligations from sle. It is true that the market away from sle - namely the share prices of Providence and Lansdowne O&G - have recognised that the project is not yet dead as those 2 share prices have rallied considerably from their lows. However, the write-down of San Leon's 4.5% NPI was was predictable given the overall delays at Barryroe/concerns about funding, the general decline in oil and gas asset values generally (particularly prospective ones, rather than producing), and especially, due to the much more conservative accounting conventions used currently by auditors in most developed markets. As for your other question, sle's NPI is in fact very valuable should the field get into production as, I believe, it is top-line revenue driven; ie., we get paid first.

advfn version

Extraordinary. In the span of a single post where you try to once again to justify the unjustifiable - that you are any kind of reasonable or even useful in any way, critic of this company or the business in which it competes - and you manage to prove exactly the opposite. 'Mugged by Scotty', were you? Bless

I did indeed neglect to include Bushveld's innovative participation (an unusual if not entirely unique example of upstream/downstream cooperation within the AIM-commodity community) this time, though I did mention it multiple times in previous missives of course. I also left out the crucial backing Schroders however, the Group's largest institutional shareholder who followed their money. For what it's worth, their backing was even more important to making the reverse merger happen than BNM's.

If you want, please read my previous half dozen posts if you want an explanation of this move. Here's a summary of sorts: severe decline to equivalent of 50p in today's price based on (mistaken) belief that company couldn't raise more capital ==> encouraging response from various potential partners ==> shares suspended in July last year (this one is crucial. the assumption among trolls especially was that the shares were suspended for 'bad' reasons, ie., that the company had run out of dough/fraud/etc when the reality was much different) ==> Announced instead a value-enhancing deal, a merger with Avalon, a tech and geographically complementary competitor. Deal was deemed a reverse merger however, which immediately added months to the suspension period due to the massive regulatory requirements ==> finally satisfy the necessary regulations and then move on to organise capital raise while still suspended in order to fund working capital for the new entity while advancing the merged company structure and continuing to pursue new business and re-engage with existing order backlog ==> close the fundraise at a 60% premium to the suspension price (82.5p equivalent), announce it, and then re-list, all during the worst of the C19-induced equity crash a few months ago ==> enjoy a well-deserved bounce from the 52.5p suspension price since the original fall to 50p was due to misguided assumptions in the market and the fundraise at a 60% proved that ==> see the bounce diminish on the back of continued miserable market conditions and a large, long-term institutional shareholder who emerged from the long suspension as a price-insensitive seller ('just get me out') and were almost solely responsible for driving the shares down to 35p ==> some price stabilisation on the back of intrepid buyers who saw the rest of the broader sector, which includes ITM, Ceres, and AFCEnergy in the UK, attracting very aggressive longer-term buying on the back of significant green fund commitments from governments in Europe and elsewhere ==> after some fitful trading, the shares begin to shake off the damage of a lot of irrational selling to almost triple from the lows as it starts to filter into the market the company is far from hostage to C19, etc and is in fact active in pursuing new business and bedding down the new merged structure ==> recent update and subsequent podcast with CEO and CTO confirms some genuine, though small, contract wins and generally delivers a positive, upbeat message from management about the company's near-term prospects for significant growth from this base ==> roadshow with institutions just this week would therefore seem to be going well in conveying that narrative as some significant buyers have emerged and are largely responsible for the rally from 80p. Or something like that...

Listen very carefully all and sundry-trolls. Some nice, newish stuff in there on the margin, particularly how the company is going to market itself and its strategy going forward to new investors.

I dare you. I double dare you with a scout on top.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/climate-change-iea-sets-out-3-trillion-recovery-plan-to-help-fix-economy.html