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I particularly liked this phrase 😃

"The primary, supergiant accumulations of oil in both fields are found in ...."

With the obvious caveat that you shouldn't rely on AI, just for fun today I asked whether Tengiz and Airshagyl are geologically similar. The most interesting aspect of the answer, for me, and which I didn't previously know, is that the Tengiz oil reservoir is actually further below the salt layer than Airshagyl. I find this observation hopeful; if they can crack the technical challenges at Tengiz, surely it's not beyond the capabilities of the necessary expertise to do it at the slightly shallower Airshagyl? (Sub-contracted if necessary?). And presumably similar to the following also applies to the Yelemes Deeps, and to Block 8:

Geological Similarities

Location and Setting: Both fields are in the Precaspian Basin of western Kazakhstan, a region known for major subsalt hydrocarbon fields.

Subsalt Traps: The primary, supergiant accumulations of oil in both fields are found in reservoirs located below a thick layer of Permian Kungurian salt, which acts as a regional seal. The Airshagyl structure's salt layer is found at approximately 3,700-4,000 meters, while the main Tengiz reservoir is deeper, between 3,800 and 5,500 meters.

Hydrocarbon Source: Both fields are believed to share a common source of hydrocarbons migrating from deeper within the basin.

hTTps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tengiz_Field#History

Thanks Joe, makes sense.

So we would have been higher without these. Eventually we'll shake off these weak holders, then the fun really begins (assuming all else goes pretty much to plan, of course)

Nobody is saying this could go to zero - it's already trundling along at around asset value, arguably below it, so any downside from here is clearly limited.

As for why there aren't more buyers; that's been discussed ad nauseum on here, not least today already, but to re-iterate in a nutshell it's the 'heard it all before' weariness (ignoring what's changed in recent weeks), together with zero attempts to attract new investors via presentations, broker notes etc.

That's both a frustration for holders, and arguably a unique opportunity for reasons explained in previous posts today.

Plus 2 new wells on Airshagyl after the production licence.

Drill, baby drill! Gonna be a busy year or two ... and what valuation after that? Surely a 7-bagger from 3p is a credible possibility with the right drilling results, and 'heard it all before' is not in itself a conclusive rebuttal to that suggestion ...

Hear what you say, but the logical conclusion of that argument is 'they haven't delivered tangible results in previous years, therefore they can't this year'.

And it ignores two significant things that have changed:

1. More cash in the bank to use for the best equipment, in a timely manner, or the necessary contracted expertise, whatever is needed to finally crack the puzzle of getting production out of the deep oil fields and

2. The sheer breadth of opportunities and price drivers, both near term and medium term, that weren't on the table in previous years.

Interestingly, here's a counter view suggesting that for various reasons including natural depletion, short term nature of shale production etc, oil demand could remain much more buoyant than some analysts suggest:

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/surplus-oil-be-the-judge-of-that

Clive isn't to blame for the technical issues and the sheer bad luck they've had in the past; he's just a convenient scapegoat. If they had been more upfront on the communication and difficulties they've had, who knows - the shares might have tanked even more. He's just been dealt a poor hand to play, but they've now shifted the odds more in their favour by sensibly selling a mature asset and finally giving themselves the resources to deliver.

There's more reason to buy than simply going against the market, of course. Yes the market assumes the poor record on delivery will continue, hence the continued lows in comparison to asset value.

But the significant change now is that there company finally has the resources to deliver, with licensing agreements on the deeps tailored to facilitate this. In the AR report, the paragraph on 'going concern' emphasises that this is the first time in many years that they haven't been cash-strapped and therefore I believe they can now find creative solutions to the technical issues that have plagued them in the past.

The post by Getmeout sums up succinctly why MrBMW is entirely incorrect to assume "the news is in the price". The complete opposite applies.

The prevailing assumption by the market is that they won't deliver, it's been that way for many years. That's why the share price hasn't shifted from these lows. Which is one of the main reasons I've gone against the market and have been accumulating; knowing if they surprise the market for a change and start delivering tangible results, the hype will be off the scale and the same with the share price.

Agree about the 500k being a sale, with practically all the other trades being buys today we'd have been up on the bid without it. Shame but traders will be traders, making their small percentages. Maybe as NN has suggested on advfn, could be the guy that bought a million recently at 2.71 releasing half for a small gain.

Happy New Year all, and let's soon see those double figures on the sp, on the back of decent drilling news, with news to encourage the traders to hang on a bit rather than being too hasty, and more importantly bringing in new, long term investors. Bored with this low valuation now! 10p plus would look more aesthetically pleasing ....

A reminder of the 2019 Long Term Incentive Plan, which kicks in at $800m market cap (at current shares in issue and exchange rate, around 25.22p)

Cash Based Incentives

In May 2019, we introduced cash based long term incentive arrangements for the senior management team since 2012, Kuat Oraziman and Clive Carver.

Under these arrangements, provided the share price growth exceeds pre-set targets starting at 17.23p, then for every $500 million increase in the Group's market capitalisation above $300 million, as adjusted to take account of dividends paid, both Kuat Oraziman and Clive Carver, would receive payments of $3 million each.

The principal hurdles under these arrangements are set out in the table below.

Market cap threshold Share price target Pay-out rate (each) Pay-out amount (each)

$’ billion Pence per share % $’ million

0.8 17.23 0.6 3.0

1.3 20.67 0.6 3.0

1.8 24.81 0.6 3.0

2.3 29.77 0.6 3.0

2.8 35.72 0.6 3.0

The scheme continues beyond the numbers in the table such that with the threshold for market capitalisation increasing at the rate of $0.5 billion and the corresponding share price threshold increasing from the earlier threshold by a constant factor of 1.2.

Each threshold must be sustained for at least 30 consecutive days for the awards to be triggered. There may be only one pay-out for each market capitalisation threshold crossed no matter how many times it is crossed.

Nooooo, Use the money to drill, get some regular production and income and use some of THAT for the occasional special dividend.

Best of both worlds.

Couple of things:

There have been two share issues in recent weeks; one for bonus shares to non board members, the other was for the Tau-Cen Acquisition. Both were set at an assumed price of 5p. One can deduce from this, that the recipients were happy to receive these shares at 5p in lieu of cash, on which they would surely expect a decent return on that price; otherwise why not try to negotiate for more shares at a lower price?

I see that level as a benchmark and in the light of developments ongoing and into 2026, anything under 5p I see as practically a no-brainer for investors.

Secondly, note the following interesting wording in today's RNS:

"A requirement under the 25-year full production licence expected to be issued during the initial three-year period is for a minimum of two further deep wells on the Airshagyl structure to be drilled after the full production licence is issued."

Note the sequencing here. The Airshagyl wells are to come FOLLOWING the award of the full production licence. Note the inherent assumption built into that sequencing. This signifies that at least on Airshagyl, there's an expectation that production levels of oil WILL be achieved. What does this tell us about the imminent news on A6?

I like the renewed focus on the deeps, which after all is the main reason we're all here as shareholders. I want to see management showing that they've learnt from past technical issues, bring in outside expertise if necessary, don't skimp on sub-par equipment, and get that oil out which we know is there.

Exciting times!

Quick correction - apologies, it's the other way around on the new drilling:

2 further ones on Airshagyl, 3 further ones on Yelemes Deep

Boom! RNS ...

Tax concessions on the deeps. Re-issued Deeps licences. New drilling: requiring 3 more deep drills on Airshagyl, 2 more on Yelemes Deeps. With incentive of tax concessions:

"Specifically, the Ministry of Energy has confirmed that Alternative Subsoil Use Tax will apply to production from the BNG Contract Area in lieu of Historic Cost, mineral extraction tax and excess profits tax. Furthermore, a temporary exemption from export customs duties on crude oil has been granted"

Btw, why am I asking these questions, now?

It's because I want to understand the significance of Casp announcements in the coming days and weeks, (eg A5, A6, West Shalva, deep well 803 etc) in the context of what we already know. As shareholders, we have almost forgotten what it feels like to get good news from drilling activities. The most significant drilling news I remember was way back in January 2023, when deep well 802 struck oil above the targeted formation.

Since then, many shareholders have probably lost interest in the endless delays waiting for licence and acquisition approvals. The share price has drifted down, along with this disinterest and disappointment. It's why we stand at under 3p rather than at a higher value already, for our potentially world class assets. Many of us are no longer all up to speed with what's going on, and we need to be - to understand any new developments & RNS's with news from drilling activities, in the context of what it means for current and future earnings - and the implications for the company's valuation.

Maybe, finally, the shift to a more positive market sentiment towards Caspian will then begin ....

It's ok, I think I've found the answer. 18th June 2025 RNS says the Block 8 Sholkara licence was renewed in Q4 2024 (presumably a production licence?). I've noted elsewhere it runs to 2027.

While the 1.12.25 RNS said completion of the acquisition was dependent on approval of Kazazh Anti monopoly Authority.

Somm and/or DM - I'm confused about the current licence and approval situations with Block 8. Have CASP actually obtained licence approval for the Sholkara structure, which covers the two wells they've tested? And if so, is it appraisal or production?

Separately, on 31 October they said completion was dependent on approval of the Kazakh Anti monopoly Authority. So we don't yet have acquisition completion, but what's the licence situation? I know they've put Akkaduk on hold because of the court rulings there. But what's the licence situation for Sholkara please? Thanks...

My condensed version of DM's excellent summaries, but concentrating just on the deep structures of Airshagyl and Yelemes is as follows:

Yelemes Deep: On 3rd December 2025, Casp announced that the Kazakh authorities had extended the previous estimation (appraisal) licence for a further two years, "during which development may resume and a further submission may be made for a 25 year production licence". Current focus is on Deep Well 803, where oil has been discovered over a 60 meter interval, and where the "oil pressure has increased with oil of good quality seeping to the surface"

Airshagyl: In May 2025 a 25 year production licence was issued for an initial 3 year period. Current focus is on a planned sidetrack on A5, and Acid treatment on A6 (results imminent!)

DM, I think you may have been slightly mixed up with the licence situations for the above two structures. I believe the above is accurate, but please correct me if I'm wrong.