The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
While we're into idle musings given that's it for the stock market until after Christmas, does anyone want to indulge in some price targets for next year and beyond? Perhaps seems a tad premature given the dire newsflow in 2023 but nevertheless we know the oil's there in some quantity and that the fun starts if/when they start having some success with the drill bit - whether or not helped by outside expertise.
My own aim is to see double figures sometime in the first half of 2024 particularly if they have a deep success. Longer term I'd love to see at least 20p and maybe significantly more? It would be interesting to see how others think given sentiment is currently rock-bottom. Been in these just over a year now and disappointing just doesn't describe it adequately, but the geology of the area is reassuring with the proximity and similarly to Tengiz, the fact that we know the oil is there etc, so it still should be 'just' a matter of time.
Dividend per share should be x20 to equate to same payment as pre-consolidation, I make that 20x 0.04375 a quarter = 0.875 per quarter or 3.5 USD a year, about 2.77 GPB at current exchange rate. Share price should be around 12.88, therefore yield in a SIPP with no WHT is over 21%.
Somm's right.
In true Caspian style they've kept us waiting, but logic and probability suggest an operational update is imminent - if anything it's overdue. And because of the variety of wells being worked on (and the fact of at least knowing the oil is there), probability also suggests at least one of those sources of news will be positive.
I was beginning to think it was just me who was starting to get incredibly excited about the next couple of weeks. And yes I have been adding here and there.
We've been here before and 'disappointment fatigue' is clearly a factor, but this time surely the probabilities are finally moving in our favour?
Agreed, that's entirely possible. Just saying that the trade reporting isn't always as it appears - anyone seeing this morning's would see what looks like blanket sells until the 175k. We all know that isn't necessarily the case but today is a good example of how misleading the trade reporting can be.
Quite possibly, given the 94k was a buy, the only sell so far today was 400k at 2.6p and the quote has probably moved up since earlier. Buys might actually outnumber sells so far today by ratio of 2:1.
Not reflected at all in the sp, but I'm excited for developments over the coming weeks & months. Many false dawns over the years but hopefully soon a decent 'sunrise' for Caspian Sunrise.
Thanks adrianz.
Couple of quick questions please - what's your logic re mixing good & bad, no news yet therefore no bad? Just playing devil's advocate could they not be sitting on bad and waiting for good to mix with it? Secondly where do you find the info re flaring licences? Thanks
Uncertain
I don't dispute Quaytec's account of his trading activity but I just wish people would think twice before posting stuff like 'what do they know' about one PI selling just a few thousand pounds worth which is peanuts in the scheme of things.
Badgenator - good post, agree with every word.
What's 'ludicrous' is people posting nonsense without engaging their brain first.
Wisest words I heard some years ago, 'No rational person trashes their own investment'. And yes if a share is illiquid enough they'll drop the price on miniscule trading.
Agree with uncertain but I would go further that it's bordering on irresponsible of a poster here to suggest 'bad news incoming' on the basis of what looks like just one seller. And even if you assume all the trades so far are the same person, it adds up to around £9k which is frankly peanuts in the scheme of things.
To repeat what I said yesterday - the company needs to put out a 'no known reason for fall' statement.
What else is going to stop the snowball effect of stop losses being triggered?
Has anyone contacted the company to request this?
Without any doubt, needs a statement from the company to either say there's no known reason for the market reaction, or to explain what might be behind it.
Whether it's market irrationality or not, they need to make a statement.
Otherwise the snowball effect of stop losses continues.
No worries, will know in a few hours' time.
Thanks, where do you get 'forecast 12p' from, please?
anthony fox
september 8, 2023
7:26 am
diversified energy company plc (lon:dec) is the topic of conversation when tim hurst-brown, partner and oil & gas equity research analyst, at tennyson caught up with *************.
q1. what stood out in diversified energy’s h1 results?
a1. diversified energy reported a solid set of h1s last week, despite headwinds in us ng markets, underscoring the resilience of its business model through the cycle. the numbers were in-line with market expectations at the revenue & ebitda level and add confidence in the fy outlook.
dec reported h1 revenue of us$542m (hedged) and ebitda of us$283m (hedged), implying robust cash margins of 52%. average realised prices (us$3.56/mcfe) were some 25% above henry hub – reflecting the benefits of the hedging programme – whilst total cash costs came in at us$1.66/mcfe, down 10% on h2 2022 – in part reflecting receding inflationary pressures across the group. on the balance sheet front, h1 gearing stood at 2.4x ebitda (in line with 2.0-2.5x policy), with us$103m of group liquidity – approximately flat on end q1 (us$110m). a further us$16m cash inflow from non-core divestments post period end puts effective liquidity closer to us$120m.
in addition, 2023 has seen a notable increase in asset sales. asset divestments have raised us$62m (4p/shr) – more than doubling the tally since 2019.
q2. is a us listing for diversified energy still on the cards?
a2. in its h1 investor presentation, management noted that it continues to engage with prospective us investors around an adr listing and believes there is strong appetite for its stewardship model. in anticipation of a dual listing, dec emphasized it is keeping its sec filings fully up to date, awaiting the right asset transaction and equity market conditions.
q3. how is diversified energy’s share price performing relative to its us peers?
a3. us gas e&ps have enjoyed a strong run lately, in spite of the current weakness in spot prices. according to bloomberg consensus estimates, eqt corp, range resources & antero are up 15-30% over the last 3 months, outpacing dec (-6%) by some margin and opening up a substantial relative valuation gap.
q4. what’s your view on us ng markets?
a4. in our view, us ng markets are at an inflection point: macro indicators point to a marked tightening in ng markets moving into the winter. the gas rig count is down nearly 30% (47 rigs) since april 2023 and total us supply is now falling month/month. gas storage levels also indicate a market in deficit. it is clear that current low prices are insufficient to keep the drill bit spinning to satisfy domestic and export led demand. thus, once inventory levels normalise prices need to move higher.
looking ahead, we continue to view a recovery in us ng markets as a key near-term share price catalyst.