The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Think it was a combination of current year's contractual obligation plus wanting to prove areal extent of the North Yelemes deep reservoir. In a separate discussion, he made the point that potential bidders would probably only be interested if deep production was proved from now than one well, so it would obviously help satisfy that aim.
On the move without WiFi from now so won't be able to answer anything else, sorry.
An 'interesting' AGM.
Firstly, the thorny subject of poor comms. Clive was made very much aware what the strength of feeling was from PIs on the abysmal communications, particularly since the beginning of 2023. One shareholder, a youngish guy who had travelled down from Manchester, gave him both barrels, even mentioned the term 'Carverspeak'! Whether this gets taken on board remains to be seen, but the aim going forwards is to have as comprehensive updates as possible, quarterly at a bare minimum.
There was a fairly detailed operations presentation which should be on the company's website by Monday. Main priorities are 802, 803 and dealing with water ingress on 141/142. The question of why spares and consumables couldn't be sourced from Azerbaijan rather than China, was raised. Said the guys would almost certainly have looked into this already, but would pass on the feedback.
The accounts were pretty much ready, just held up on one 'non-commercial' issue and IF there was to be any suspension due to further delay then it would only be for a 'matter of days'. The CE monies are expected very soon, and the other party have been made aware there are other interested bidders - although the reason why the cash hasn't yet been received, appears legit. The other party are not part of the Concert Party or related in any way.
After the meeting, I raised the subject of the 17p bonus and Clive said 'his economic future depends on this coming good'. Can't remember the market cap required for his (and Kuat's) multi-million bonus, but it equates to around 17p. He said he and other directors had taken a voluntary 75% salary cut several years ago ('pre-Covid') and that this was still in place.
The Concert Party are committed and supportive. Main aim is to prove and quantify the deeps, conscious that he, Kuat and others are not getting any younger and want to see this to fruition.
Hanging on in there (obviously).
Broker note out from WH Ireland
Brief summary of today's RNS, concludes with this:
We believe the board has taken measures to preserve balance sheet
strength and the long-term potential of the company’s assets. We have a positive outlook for oil prices for 2H 2023, based on the supply demand fundamentals, and expect that to provide a considerably more supportive backdrop for the company than experienced in 1H 2023.
Arguably most (all?) of this is already priced in, given the massive drop from earlier in the year when 802 unexpectedly struck oil at a higher level. Market not always rational, though.
Want those CE monies coming in pronto, then they say dividends can resume.
My background is in Psychology, so I am interested in the psychology of investing, herd mentality, etc. Clearly, back in the first few months of 2023 the 'herd' was bullish, and that same herd (for obvious reasons) is now overwhelmingly negative and the share price has quickly halved since the highs of over 8p.
That is the background to the first detailed update the market is going to see in a long time. Fundamentally the company is the same, with the same promising resources, lack of debt and committed Concert Party of wealthy investors who are not going anywhere. A cash injection is due from 50% sale of CE.
The next couple of days should be interesting.
Oil price expected to jump Monday
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-wagner-prigozhin-putin/card/oil-prices-expected-to-jump-on-conflict-in-russia-pmaAsAiMTRCfO3FVgiDP
"then it forces them to buy back their shares at a lower price"
I think they might be quite happy with that? A bit too much over-thinking, imo. Surely you should buy if you think it'll go up in a timescale you're comfortable with, don't worry about what anyone else may or may not be doing.
I could be wrong, but I would find it surprising if the nomad (WH Ireland) had published the following comment in their note just 4 days ago, if they thought this was in any doubt at all:
'For reference, Caspian Sunrise's oil production in Kazakhstan is supporting a dividend payment of 0.5329 pence per share per annum - yielding a generous 9.7% yield'
Not sure I see the logic of asking people not to buy, given the 14 day RSI is on its knees at 10 and heavily in oversold territory. If investors want to add, surely now is as good a time as any? Agree that volumes are small but movements either way are exaggerated with the limited free float.
An odd RNS. Obviously a great positive that they have loads of cash to play with now from 50% sale of Caspian Explorer. Good to have enough to cover dividend and to develop further with 802, 803 etc. But as others have commented, the sparsity of detail is almost comical and makes you ask what on earth have they been doing since the great news on 802 way back in January.
Having said that, I'm puzzled by the market reaction today. Yes, still many questions obviously, but on balance - particularly the unexpected cash to play with - this extra unexpected cash has surely given an overall positive outlook and definitely not justifying a 8.2% fall on top of the massive depletion in value seen since January and the highs of 8p plus.
I guess it's the perceived uncertainty re the dividend, despite the coming cash windfall from CE part sale. But people will look back at this time, imo, in puzzlement at the negative market reaction.
Holding tight.
Agree.
For me, the new 803 well is definitely the most exciting development since January when they struck oil unexpectedly in 802 on the deep Yelemes. But we should not have had to find out via Bico tender site. This next operational update has to be the most eagerly anticipated in the company's history!
Indeed, perhaps another two weeks.
I don't know how many times it needs to be said, but some of you other guys really need to try to chill. Yes it's frustrating not being kept updated.
And yes, there might even be some slippage on the dividend but would that really be the end of the world? If those redirected funds finally enabled a sustainably flowing deep, I'd happily forego that one dividend payment. But it could still be paid in June. Nobody knows. So just chill! If everything was a certainty these would be 42p already ...
Agree with all that. I still maintain that even just neutral news will have a relief effect, 'thank God they're still actually alive and doing stuff' after such a long radio silence and I have therefore been quietly adding in the past few weeks. And I keep banging on about the pennant on the 6 month chart but it is my favourite chart formation for a reason; there's a logic behind the ever narrowing oscillations between bulls and bears reaching a point where a decisive breakout resolves the tussle. Naturally for reasons I've outlined previously, I believe that breakout will be upwards, and within the next couple of weeks; triggered by an operational update.
No, the last RNS did not say they'd pay it in May.
What it actually said was that they expected to announce the dividend in May, and pay it in June. It is that slippage of the announcement that has got some people's knickers in a twist.
My suggestion is enjoy the sunshine of a nice weekend.
As nice a pennant formation as you're ever likely to see, starting January (see 6 month chart) Still perfectly intact and poised for breakout on the right catalyst.
14 day RSI has risen slightly after being well into oversold territory in mid May.
Let the worry-warts fret, for the rest of us it's time to chill and look forwards, especially in short term for news on that 803 well.