Member Info for bluemango

In fairness somm the poster suggesting a special dividend of up to 4p was imagining a scenario of an accumulation of further asset sales and over a longer period than just this year's shallows sale; having said that I agree it's probably best to lower one's expectations in that direction.

However, it looks like 'the market' is currently assuming zero cash back (either via dividends or buybacks) which I think is just bizarre. Can see why some might be frustrated by the wait for licence approvals and shallows sale, but why on earth they would go on to hit the sell button at these paltry levels rather than hang on seems totally illogical.

Just extraordinary.

As for being 'balls deep', I'm mindful that the Concert Party members have significantly more shares than any individual posting here. And they appear to be holding firm.

If they're content to be holding for the endgame, then so am I.

Dunno about the 'edge of what's lawful', the main difference between this and much larger companies like Shell and Rio Tinto is in communication and transparency.

But you have assets here which you can value to a reasonable, objective degree. Then it's just a matter of having an appropriate attitude to risk, a realistic timescale to achieving one's investment objectives, and the patience to get there.

Happy New Year and hopefully a prosperous one to all shareholders.

Me too, Leveller - me too

Who's that reply aimed at please, mrcautious?

Just in case it was at me, to be crystal clear, I am not 'nervous' at anything posted here. My argument is centred on the fact that for an under-researched small-cap Aim stock like this, bulletin boards take on a disproportion role as a kind of shop window and source of information, some accurate, some less than accurate. So if someone pointlessly suggests an ultra-pessimistic forecast for the whole of 2025, which happens to fly in the face of developments in progress and pending, don't be surprised if it causes a reaction. Needlessly pessimistic or sarcastic posts are just as unhelpful as unrealistic ramping - both extremes need to be called out for what they are.

And rather than bore everyone to death on this subject, I'll leave this there.

Thanks rhertig. I was initially of the same view as you re the mining, but they must feel they have a decent chance of making a good return from it; apparently it will be almost immediately income-earning and if so that's fine by me. All part of the jigsaw, just need the pieces to start slotting together.

My apologies BobDNero.

It seemed like you were going along with the post before yours. I agree Casp could be a gem this year, just depends on some of the current bureaucratic logjams being cleared.

He knows nothing and is simply saying 'if it goes up, it'll then go down again'. Ignoring the fact that positive developments will lead to an overall, general trend upwards, regardless of lesser fluctuations in between.

This is kindergarden stuff. Hardly worth picking apart at all.

It beggars belief that some shareholders think the best thing they can do is come on here, make some sarky, cynical comment that's likely to put off any interested potential new investors, then pat each other on the back with 'recommended posts' having done so.

If you genuinely think it's such rubbish, just sell up and move on!

Yes it's frustrating, yes it's all taking far too long, but what actually is the point of coming on here and saying so? It's an Aim-listed small cap operating in Kazakhstan. Which you knew before buying. With assets worth considerably more than the valuation suggests. So stick with it, or sell - but for Christ's sake enough with the whinging! And don't assume everyone thinks the same way. Personally I'm very much looking forward to what 2025 should bring.

Rant over.

And I deliberately specified 'current delays'. Of course management haven't been perfect over the years, and everyone knows their communication with shareholders is poor. Technical issues, plain back luck and sometimes flawed decision-making have also all played a part in past delays.

But none of that should blind you to the possibilities here. Unless you're absolutely determined not to have an open mind.

It's "that's" (from 'that is')

Apostrophes really aren't that scary, you should try them.

Absolutely. Well said, both somm and mrcautious.

Quite apart from the old adage 'only a fool publicly trashes his own investment', what Gritster is ignoring when he refers to 'clowns' is the fact that much (most?) of the current delays is down to bureaucrats in the Kazakhstan officialdom. Completely outside Casp's control. Go and complain at them, by all means, if that helps you feel better. And then consider, realistically, the effect on the valuation when these various logjams are cleared.

Jeez!

Nobody knows! Neither the most pessimistic doom and gloom merchant, nor the most ardent ramper. Nobody knows, and meanwhile it's pointless plucking figures out of the sky.

All you can do is look at the actual data, the assets and what's due (or overdue) to be happening to them, and forget charts and historic disappointment because they become meaningless when events change. Which they will!

Somm, your patience with some on here is admirable.

You always find with volatile stocks like these, news-dependent and illiquid, that the pointless whinging increases around this time of year. Pressies to buy, pressure from the missus and no regard to how much of the current impasse re Casp is completely out of management's hands and instead lays on the desks of slow bureaucrats/offialdom. 'Twas ever thus.

Clear that paperwork, and the brakes will be off.

And btw, if the company announces data that increases the booked asset value to well above and beyond that currently set by the house broker, why on earth would 'the market' let it drift back down to 3p again?

What have you got against apostrophes? They're quite friendly things if you use them nicely.

In the shorter term, the sale of the shallows is due to complete within the next 3 weeks (or by a mutually agreed new long-stop date) with $54m receivable and a further 4m soon after. There's speculation that some of those proceeds will be returned to shareholders, possibly via a special dividend.

Definitely not gentle decline, because that's already WAY overdone in relation to asset value and developments to come

Multi-bag very possible, timescale is very hard to guage but at some point Kuat and Concert Party will want out with a Company sale, at a very decent return as reward for their long-held patience. In addition, Clive and Kuat have a very lucrative incentive award if market cap hits 800m USD (around 26p a share, which gives an idea of their minimum ambition)

Thank you somm, good summary.

Other shareholders seem to be surprised this is behaving like a high risk, Aim small cap penny share stock. Precisely what it is and always has been. High risk and hopefully high reward, with likely periods of doldrums along the way. Which surely should have been apparent when they first bought?

Frustrating as the wait has been, particularly 2024, I'm happy anticipating the goodies to come. Look at the assets, look at the cash situation and the possibilities for 2025 and it sure as hell adds up to more than 3p a share.

6.2p easy peasy, I would seriously hope people have their sights set higher than that. Look at the risked valuation, let alone the unrisked; recognising the current doldrums are almost entirely explainable by bureaucratic delays which WILL pass.