Member Info for Bluelight

At 640 theres still money to be made. Im in from a range of trades from 350 to 600. I will only start selling those trances in the 750-800 range. 640 will look cheap in a few monhs in my view. Ifonly you really should havd learnt by now to play a longer game, youre experienced enough now.

PFC will be 700 in a few months, and I'd be surprised not to test 800 by Q1 next year. Clear strategy, large debt reduction, and stable divi.

Market sees it as positive hence the 5% rise this morning. Its the usual market shenanigan that have yanked it down. An impairment is fine, its an asset for sale, when you sell loss making assets there's nearly always impairments. Case of taking your losses and moving on, sell a loss making business for decent cash, you will never get what you paid for it back. Positive move, that is part of their well defined strategy to exit that misguided sector of the business.

To be only up 1% when they've just reduced debt by $200n is a bit of a joke, but that's Petrofacs share price fun and games for you.

Looks like I was wrong on that guess. I expected a pull back then a test to 650, but looks like we might have to wait until tomorrow for that now.

Interestingly. Ithaca Energy who own the majority of the Greater Stella, have just applied for a $300m loan (news report from yesterday). States to repay next years unsecured notes, but that seems a remarkable coincidence to me...

Just for reference, I see they value the Greater Stella assets at $255m. Could be worth a touch more now oils higher. I'd guess they'd get around $275m from a 100% sale of that asset.

So it's released $200m for the sale of half of its assets in Mexico, which is around 10% of its market cap. So in total those assets alone are about 20% of its market cap. Just goes to highlight how undervalued PFC is. They're also looking at selling the North Sea assets, so very soon they will be either very cash rich, or very low debt, or a combination thereof.

I think it will close at near 650 today. Watch around lunch when the US wakes up and short covers.

Shorts are already at near record levels. Not a chance in hell they will increase those levels and add extra exposure when prices have broken out of their trend. It's the perfect setup for a short squeeze, high short levels and a breakout.

Understood. I'm in until I get my 800 target. Not being greedy, can see it returning to 900 plus levels in time, but 800 is good for me. In the meantime, nice 6-7% divi a year whilst I wait.

And its that shadow which has caused many of us to buy in and be patient. By the time that shadow is lifted it will be way too late and the price will be nowhere near these levels.

Looks to me like its broken out of its lethargic trend to the upside. When this occurs shorts will start to reduce as many as usually trend followers. When the trend changes so does their position. Volume is picking up too which is a good sign.

Yes oil is relevant on longer term trends. Higher oil = more projects, which equals higher income for PFC. But oil was $35 not so long ago, and oils $70-80 now, so doesn't take a genius to know there will be more work in the pipeline (pardon the pun). It follows oil sometimes on daily moves, but mostly when overall volumes are low, and in my view because day traders link it to oil as they aren't as clued up on PFC fundamentals.

It was 0.09% Dog, not 0.9%

If you look at this graph of the short positions they rarely stay high for long. I find its mostly speculative based on short term expectations. Only long term one was AQR, but they've reduced that down a lot. None are particularly big individual positions, which to me suggests that's its mostly speculative / hedging. Pretty happy for it to be this high as history shows that it inevitably causes a large up move on short covering, be that oil driven or news driven. I'd bet money that they increased shorts as its the summer lull and prices tend to drift in summer. Coming out of summer we will see the resumption of the up trend, just my opinion of course. Waiting game.

Not necessarily. If some shorts have been put on as a hedge against oil prices, then as oil prices decline such as now, then those shorts will be slowly unwound. Many factors influence short positions, not just one off news stories.

Indeed. At c10% short that's a lot of short covering to do once we get the up move. That's why we do tend to get these sharp rises when shorts get to these levels. It's herd mentality.

Interesting that the short interest is so high. Previous times it's got this high over the last few years, it is quickly followed by a very strong upwards price move of 20% plus. Lets see how it pans out over coming weeks..

That's about $0.5bn over last few weeks then. Pretty much ignored by the market as usual. Have to wonder how long this lack of recognition for the amount of business they're winning will continue. I honestly see no other outcome than a takeover. If the market continues to undervalue it you can guarantee its competitors don't.