Member Info for Bluelight

It's getting a bit dull. 99.9% of us wont sell until we get the takeover price. No idea why they are whacking it up and down. Personally I'm taking the offer price when it gets finalised, my prediction remains that will be in the 40-50p range.

Oh yes and you are also added to ignore mate. Along with Johnnycashloss

You forget Triton. Obviously not done your research. Come now, don't get upset. I'm sure you're penny a point short has every opportunity of making you 5 or 6 pence for you to add to your weekly dole cheque. Good luck with your short, you are going to need it.

And those are the offers that are known. Could well be others under confidentiality. Also no reason why another bid can't come in from someone looking for the tour ops, the deadline was only for the airline.

That's your view as a short. The reality is there are multiple bidders, for multiple parts of the business. Some of those bids overlap some don't. As you are a well known short, I am fully aware you will choose not to recognise this fact, as it is not in your interest for the price to go up accordingly. That however is what it is doing, and will continue to do.

I suspect given their links with Citi there was an element of encouraging a negative review from Citi, so as to buy the company for cheaper (which they've made clear they've been interested in for a while). It would have worked except that it went too far, and as a result other bidders were drawn in on a pure valuation basis (likes of Triton etc). That left them in an awkward position of now having to panic bid in effect to fend off the other parties. If they did collude, and I have no proof they did (just a strong suspicion), then it has backfired on them quite spectacularly.

All this talk of debt, profit etc in my view is not the main concern. At the end of the day, it's a bidding war and it comes down to how badly each pursuing party wants it, and how much goodwill they assign to getting the brand. In this situation all valuation predictions are pure guesswork. A bid could be 30p, it could be 50p, it could be 80p, no one knows, not even the 'experts'. We can however all agree it will be more than the current share price.

No need to respond to shorters Jed. They are going to be on overdrive over the next week or so before the offers come in, any random drivvel to try to distract from the bidding war going on. Best to ignore and just keep adding like most of us are doing.

No not averaging down Manchengo. That Mmight be a by product if they trade it right, but the main goal will be to reduce their short at the cheapest possible price. These guys spend billions on IT and quant guys to write software so that they can build a position or exit a position at the best price for them. Is it manipulative, absolutely. Is it legal yes, but needs deep pockets.

Its about trading certain volumes at certain prices. As a simple example could buy all day today up to say 20p, then as its a pyschological level, trade half of that as a short to push it back down to say 18p, then buy more volume again on the way up (hence reducing their oberall short at a much lower price than if they'd just bought all day). Those are just example numbers, but the principle is valid. They will short at low volume bid levels to push it down, and buy more at lower prices. Just my view of course, everyone is welcome to their on thoughts on how a price is controlled.

Well if you are a fund that's short and want to cover your position you wont be going all out to buy back at any price as it is self defeating. My experience over the years is that they manage to control volumes in order to steadily reduce their short exposure. They may even take on additional shorts at strategic levels to move prices down and allow them to buy higher volumes at a lower price. In reality its all algo driven, but that's what i mean by the powers that be. People with more at stake than you or I.

Indeed. The powers that be did well to keep it below 20p today. Lets see if they can manage it tomorrow. 23p is the next gap that should be filled.

Because A :) They have to state it in a regulatory filing when their share holding changes every 1%, and B:) They are not behind bars for trading shares during takeover negotiations. The rules are black and white.

Also they are not allowed legally to buy shares if in negotiations of a takeover. I would imagine they've been in discussions for a good few weeks, they've not just suddenly come out of the blue with a decision they want to buy TCG.

Bids will include goodwill for the reputation of TCG, which is one the best known global holidays brands, so that goodwill alone would be significant. Citi valued that goodwill along with all assets at zero because they are utter incompetents (and personally I believe under instruction to do so to profit from a decline, illegally). Personally I'd expect an offer in the 40p - 60p range.

Agree. June in the North of England has been atrocious and the forecast is the same for the rest of the month. Imagine alot of people will now be reconsidering their potential UK break given we are back to a normal British summer.

Whichever way you look at it we are in a bidding war now. To get a deal done it will have to be at a very competitive level. All comes down to how much the various parties want it, and who wants it the most. My money is on Fosun outbidding everyone to build its global presence.

Listen longs, can you hear it? It's the sounds of shorts panicing, bringing up any kind of negativity to try to support their losing positions. It's a beautiful sound, soak it up.

Also worth noting that although they only have to release an rns regarding each 1% jump in ownership, It's unlikely they'd buy in one off chunks. More likely they've had a standing order to buy shares over the year, which i assume in any bid would be clear. In short it seems more likely that under a 12m rule the price would be closer to the 100p level.

Someone did some research on it yesterday, worth checking the old posts. I believe they've purchased multiple times over the past 12m, and if the highest price paid rule does apply (I'm still unsure if it does), then that price would be multiple times the current price.