Member Info for BlueGlow

Hi Trek,

Flicked through some news channels in the evening after the budget.

Presenters were cautioning their guests not to criticise the Budget too harshly for fear of spooking the market!

Spending an extra £70 billion per year, in order to achieve what is forecast to be lower growth, lower living standards and a drop in disposable income over the parliament, with further tax hikes expected due to the lack of fiscal headroom the Chancellor has allowed - was never going to go down well with the markets imo.

With borrowing and debt repayments so high, any unexpected fiscal shock is going to be amplified.

From the National Farmers Union on Twitter:

Quote "In 2023 Keir Starmer looked farmers in the eye & said he knew what losing a farm meant.

Farmers believed him.

After today’s budget they don’t believe him any more."

Video:

https://x.com/NFUtweets/status/1851648406952837226

"Commitments the PM made to farmers ahead of the Budget"

https://www.nfuonline.com/updates-and-information/prime-minister-s-commitments/

No wonder they are cross.

Farmers dont sound too pleased.

"The National Farmers' Union said it had been a “disastrous budget” for family farms, that would “snatch away the next generation’s ability to carry on producing British food” and see farmers forced to sell land to pay the tax.

Many have gone onto social media to express their dismay, as well as broadcasters Jeremy Clarkson and Kirstie Allsopp, who said the decision showed the government had "zero understanding of what matters to rural voters".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ml5zm9lz5o

Hi evi,

Yeah, thats really harsh!

I just meant it could have been worse, i was really concerned about them limiting, capping or introducing some regressive tax on ISA withdrawals.

Re CGT, It's the sort of thing a different Gov might reverse in the future i guess.

Hope you are doing ok.

"The Budget will only “temporarily boost” the economy, according to official forecasts, throwing into question the government’s promises to reboot growth.

The pace of growth will peak next year at 2% before falling back to around 1.5% later in the parliament, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said.

The government has pinned its reputation on delivering growth, arguing that a new approach to investment would underpin a better economic performance and “more pounds in people's pockets”.

But the OBR said in the short term the Budget would push up inflation and interest rates, with a knock-on effect on growth."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yge6knpzdo

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/30/obr-budget-economic-growth-rachel-reeves-economy

Showing commitment to improve the NHS which is good - review and reform expected alongside the extra spending on health.

High tax, high borrowing, elevated inflation, £70 billion spending increase, and after 2 years growth is projected to be lower than if these measure had not been introduced in the first place, oh and a drop in disposable income too, lol.

At least they didnt go after ISAs which is good for us guys :)

Fuel duty a plus too :)

Assessing Rachel Reeves’s policies, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the economy would expand at the same rate as predicted in March by the end of the parliament, despite a £70bn-a-year rise in spending.

Richard Hughes, the head of the OBR, said the effect of an increase in taxes of £36bn would take the tax take each year as a proportion of national income to a historic high of 38% by 2029-30.

Hughes said: “Against a largely unchanged economic and fiscal backdrop since our last forecast in March, this budget delivers one of the largest increases in spending, tax and borrowing of any single fiscal event in history.”

The larger state will “crowd out” business activity and business investment, the OBR said, pushing living standards down by about 1% in the last year of its five-year forecast.

Inflation will be slightly higher than previously estimated and wages slightly lower than previously forecast after a £26bn hit to business costs from the chancellor’s decision to raise employers’ national insurance. The expanded state will be competing with the private sector for the same scarce resources, pushing up prices.

David Miles, the chief economic adviser to the OBR, said: “The [fall in disposable incomes] is inevitable when the government is taking 2% of national income to spend on public services and public investment.”

He said the increase in borrowing would cost the government more than £100bn in debt payments in each year of the parliament for the first time.

How can the average farm survive that IHT bill?

They can't - forces the sale of farm land.

Convenient if you are a Gov who want to build on the green belt.

94% of UK farms operate on an overdraft system, with the land acting as security.

Robert Jenrik and Kemi Badenoch respond to the latest news re the Southport massacre:

https://youtu.be/ZmyP-W604gk?t=361

The guy that butchered three schoolgirls with a knife in Southport, Mr Rudakubana, is facing charges of making biological weapons and being in possession of jihadi terrorist material.

Bebe King, six, Elsie Dot Stancombe, seven, and nine-year-old Alice Dasilva Aguiar died in the knife attack at a Taylor Swift-themed dance class.

Eight other primary school-aged children and two adults, were injured during a bloodthirsty rampage in July.

Definitely not terror related - Just an ordinary young man from Wales - with an Al-Qaeda manual.

Hi Keith,

I am indeed aware of the various factors surrounding the GE, Ryan's zealotry, and the EU's opinion of Ireland's current precarious predicament re supply - and more besides.

None of which suggest that i can or should begin to attribute anything more than a notional upside to the prospect.

Imo, factoring in the realisation of the Irish asset at this stage, and with such certitude, would be to ignore reality and succumb to hope. Hope being the very weakest rung of the investment ladder.

I appreciate others have different approaches, but mine would be to add on such news, or its indicators, rather than wait interminably in expectation from one false dawn to the next.

If it happens great, but my own focus is Morocco, the principal reason for my original interest, and on which the Mcap rests.

Ireland remains supplemental rather than fundamental, bearing little relevance to the valuation the market ascribes to PRD at this stage imo.

Hi BillyRayVal,

If a company held the Irish asset, £5 million in the bank, and no other considerations - it would likely be valued at less than cash.

It is a dubious prospect, reliant on a sequence of events entirely beyond the company's control, and which go against the grain in terms of current political headwinds.

Even if a Government were elected who were amenable to such a development and hydrocarbons more generally, there are a multitude of options other than CS.

It is very firmly in bonus territory, and does nothing to support PRDs current Mcap - which is largely derived from the prospect of near-term cash flow from CNG in Morocco.

Imo, your reference to Paul's comments, many many years ago, serve chiefly to highlight the indefinite timeframes involved, and in turn, the controvertible value of the prospect.

I tend to agree with the poster you describe as the "muppet", Ireland is of little consequence unless and until it happens.

Hey Trek,

A week or so ago, the BBC broadcasted Irans Supreme Leader - for almost three quartersof an hour, live.

Justifying the destruction of Israel, and the October massacre, whilst wielding a rifle.

I mean, what's not to like?

Atlantic Lithium.

Price £0.12 after placing.

Offer rejected in Nov at £0.33, as described below:

"Rejected Offer Not Considered to be in the Best Interests of Shareholders

The Atlantic IBC and its advisers gave careful consideration to both the NBIO and Prior NBIO, and determined in each instance that it undervalued Atlantic Lithium and, therefore, was not in the best interests of shareholders, having regard to the near-term producer status of the project, the status of the pending investment from the Minerals Income Investment Fund and the positive near-term outlook for lithium project developers."

Suggests £0.12 is perhaps cheap, but im not too familiar with the company nor the reason for the drop.

The offer was previously made when the SP was around £0.20.

Lithium is down 56% YTD, which may explain the situation.

Trek,

TXP, ditto :)

Tro,

PRD - they haven't done anything this year to move the SP, one big sideways trend.

TXP,

News expected on Cascadura "prior to the end of October 2024."

Can buy for 30.57p at the moment.

From Malcys Blog:

"On the rumour mill front apparently Reuters are running a story about Harbour Energy quitting the North Sea and roughly on that front I notice that a story is doing the rounds that the Spanish Government is considering reducing the windfall tax on the energy sector."