Member Info for Blubay

I think there was an allegation of malpractice in that thread, or it was started by an account that was removed

All motions carried, so green light for BNL’s equity raise to fund their side of Galactica. Good to go hopefully.

The RNS was a convenient no new news update for HE1 but it came from BNL, prior to their shareholder meeting tomorrow. HE1 were simply required to repeat the elements relevant to their joint interest in Galactica, so there's no indication it was their initiative to release it.

Sure, I just thought HE1 were slightly egging it by changing the wording of BNL's statement. The project "continues to advance steadily" (which sometimes means a bit slowly) but reassuringly still on track for "first helium" in December (although this changed from first revenues in earlier updates). However, BNL proved excellent on delivery in drilling and I've every confidence they'll crack on as effectively as soon as the design has been finalised. I'd just be interested to understand what tasks remain to complete stage 1 and get them on site.

Note the other ASX news release from BNL today. They are forgoing their options in Lincoln County and Cheyenne to focus their resources on the Galactica project, which is hopefully good news for HE1 and make or break for BNL probably.

Depends how the day goes, but the conversion price available to the CLN holders yesterday was just under 0.25p and today will see the highest day eclipsed from the 10 day window (0.46p). If average price today remains as it is this morning then tomorrow's conversion price would be a little under 0.24p, and closer to 0.23p on Friday etc.

I notice HE1 have changed the wording of BNL’s statement. BNL stated that “General facility engineering is now highly advanced”, while HE1 present this as “nearing completion”. Not sure if that’s material.

It’s helpful to know that BNL believes the operational objective is still achievable this year. The contingency still seems to be in the design and planning but it’s hard to discern exactly where the pinch point is. Back in June, when we were awaiting imminent first production, we learned there were five stages to be completed.

1. Finalising Plant Design

2. Site Development

3. Equipment Mobilisation

4. Well Tie-Ins and Compression

5. Commissioning

At that point the stage 1 design was still being finalised and it appears that’s still in process now. Hopefully it’s finalised in time for the installation to begin this time around (this was the stage where BNL’s previous project at Voyager failed so hopefully lessons were learned and sufficient cash in the bank this time 🤞 ).

Nice to see an update, as required by BNL releasing theirs prior to tomorrow’s meeting. The details don’t give much away. Finalising plans and identifying contractors.

“The project continues to advance steadily, with foundational and preparatory work now largely complete”

From which we can discern that they have not yet completed all the preparatory work necessary to make a start on the installation in Q4. The good news is that first production remains on track for December, once those preparations are complete.

Lowest daily VWAP 0.29p

Average of 10 daily VWAPs 0.33p

Conversion Price 0.25p (0.2464)

I don't have a buy in price. I wouldn't buy in at any price in the current circumstances. I'll buy in when the CLN debt is cleared or if there's significant company news to outweigh that risk.

So it seems. I'm guessing the over priced negotiated block trades on 4 September represent crossing the principal sum (perhaps £2.25m to clear half the debt?) and the rest since then is mostly churning that through towards an equivalent share conversion to cover. The longer it goes on the more shares have to be rinsed. I think we'd be heading towards 800-900m or so by now. I thought they'd do it quicker for fewer to be honest. Maybe they're working on an even larger slice.

In absence of any company news the VWAP and CLN conversion options remain the most pressing issues to be aware of. Personally, I'm not much concerned whether the share price goes up or down in the short term. My interest is when the uncertainty overhang comes to an end and when there's a concrete operational plan in place for near term revenue, at which point I'm keen to reinvest. Obviously it would be a bonus if the price was still under the 0.9p where I sold (wisely as it turns out) but I'm much more interested in de-risking the debt structure.

PS. I'm still puzzled why you told everyone to hold, buy and top up throughout the period of predictable price collapse following the CLN agreement, even after attending the meeting and getting an inside track on it (or perhaps you were misled). I'm also puzzled why you keep telling people that you have such a superior knowledge of markets when you're advice has proved so wrong. Now you claim to be making money from it but previously you claimed you wouldn't sell a single share. How does that work, just out of interest? Are you running a hedge bet or just saying one thing here and doing another? Not a criticism, just curiosity. Each to their own.

I’m surprised they haven’t called conversion of the £2m+ tranche yet

The formula involves choosing the higher of two options as a starting point, but there seems to be some confusion about the method of calculating the second option (the first option is easy, that's just the lowest daily VWAP in the ten days preceding). The second option uses 92.5% of the average of the daily VWAPs over the ten days (not VWAP over the ten day period). Whichever is the higher option then you apply the 80% for the conversion price.

The broker will get the last ten daily VWAPs from Bloomberg/Refinitiv or wherever (e.g. on Bloomberg Terminal, pull the daily VWAPs from ticker = HE1 LN , Then run: VWAP , For history: HP and add the VWAP field, date range = last 10 trading days, download to Excel).

If you want compare that with a 10 day rolling VWAP method then you could use something like the VWAP MTF (Multi Timeframe) indicator in TradingView, and define the duration as '10D'.

Hope that helps.

They’ve just done the raise and first revenues were expected before the end of this year (maybe)

Just to avoid any cross purposes, there's a computational difference between (a) ten-day VWAP indicator (volume weighting the average price over a ten day period) and (b) the "average VWAP for the 10 trading days" (averaging ten daily VWAPs). I think the RNS refers to the latter?

10 day VWAP (weighted to heavy volume days) = 0.366p, which implies conversion at 0.271p

Average of 10 daily VWAPs (equally weighted) = 0.346p, which implies conversion at 0.256p

I think it's the second one you want to watch although I might be wrong.

"A company which basically said we will use income from Colorado to float the main picture."

They did not say this and in fact said pretty much the opposite, intending to ringfence the two projects.

BNL shareholder meeting and vote on Friday 11am AWST (4am London). Assuming full equity raise is approved there should be ASX news coming fairly soon about their Q4 operational plan for Galactica, which HE1 will be required to mirror in RNS. I guess the optimal timing for the CLN holders would be to convert on a low ten day VWAP and sell into a news spike (or forward sell on a spike and quickly convert on the lagging discount).

The finance has been sorted, £10m of it, that's the point. The price drop is just due to the method of paying off that debt.