Member Info for Blubay

Nearly 200m already

So shareholders voted to bankrupt the company by Christmas and it's up 72%? Makes sense :-)

The large block trades have been a feature of the CLN share distribution process since the first tranche. They would likely be negotiated cross trades arranged via the broker. The CLN holders comply with their agreement not to short the shares, and the brokers comply with their obligation to maintain a legal/fair and orderly market. For example, a CLN holder (short term debt fund) might arrange for the broker to transfer share blocks to an affiliate (e.g. an equity fund) at or above market price. That ensures the broker reports a fair market price, avoids claims of shorting, helps the exchange price optics, and registers a healthy paper profit against conversion price. The equity fund then chooses whether to hold or sell the shares, either at, above or below the negotiated price. They're not bound by the CLN agreement and may have forward sold them, for example. There are other permutations, including holding onto shares to sell on imminent positive news, or placing shares with a mystery buyer but so far there's no evidence of that and plenty of indications that previous shares blocks were sold on.

Pulling off another acquisition would be great if they can bring the Colorado project to fruition for proof of concept. The global acquisition and diversification strategy is probably the most attractive thing about their business strategy for me, sets them apart from the one hole AIM explorers.

Useful operational information. Not much change in wording from the previous update. A staged approach, prioritising early cash flow over full implementation. The Stage 1 pipelines will tie in 'selected' wells from the seven drilled so far (not all of them, not clear how many). Preparation for the processing plant design and build remains 'steady' (not yet complete). Helium unit is now ready to go. On the financial side they reported around 2 months sustainability at end September (i.e. funded for 0.7 of one Quarter, approximately to end November) but they've had their fundraise approved since then, which should give them more runway into first revenues. Hopefully breaking ground and operational updates soon.

How on earth do you expect them to run an early stage pre-revenue business, in a high risk industry, with high capex requirements, without any "FUND RAISES, ACQUISITIONS, LOAN CONVERSIONS, OR OTHER UNEXPECTED COSTS"? The trick is really more about timing those things and managing them in relation to news flow, operational cycles etc.

As you know, I don't believe the CLN holders are shareholders. I assume that they're among the handful of debt funds that collaborate with Marex in these types of short term capital events. It's possible of course that some of their converted shares are placed with equity fund investment arms, or in Marex inventory, on a speculative basis pending price rise. I'm aware others have differing opinions but in the absence of any indication of share holdings since July we can only guess.

So if you were CEO, how would you have raised £10m for an early stage pre-revenue AIM company without any income to repay it? Just out of curiosity.

I appreciate the argument but why then did the price collapse if the broker did not distribute the millions of converted shares to the market? If they were instead placed in sticky hands above market price (see bulk cross trades) then the number of circulating shares would not have increased at all. So who sold all the shares? Are you suggesting billions of shares were forward sold simply to manipulate the price down, so the new converted shares could be placed with a buyer who then failed to declare a beneficial interest at 3% and all increments to 30%? If they forward sold the shares but gave all the converted shares to an affiliated buyer then how did they return shares to the broker? Theories welcome.

Expo - I think you're confusing shares issued with share ownership. There is no indication yet that all or any of the shares issued have been held. In principle, a notification of any significant holding above 3% should be made to the company within 4 days (including from any consortium of holders acting in consort). None has been advised to the market, so we have to assume there have been none.

Nice volume on a rising price so that's all to the good for clearing what remains. Back up to half the pre-CLN price now and nearly double the low point, which is positive for now

Says the man who promised us that no CLN holder would sell a share below 3.7p

The CLN short term debt funds probably won't have the option to hold AIM shares on book but their affiliated equity arms might hang on to some for the news run if they've cross traded shares in house.

No way of knowing, but I suspect the broker will manage the inventory into the news flow with an informal expectation of a minimum price floor, as they'll want to make up the loss of anticipated profit that's lost on the portion not converted (i.e. 12% rather than 30% on that portion)

But totally accept that they've converted more shares than I expected in one tranche, hence the likelihood of a remaining overhang tomorrow

"Get lost you called it wrong "

Called what wrong? As far as I can see, I called the conversion notice date and the price correctly to within two decimal places?

... probably I need to revise my numbers. I don't see how the broker has churned the number of shares slated for the final conversion tranche, although potentially could account for more than half of them, so I suspect there will still be an unaccounted overhang to be traded out once the new shares are admitted tomorrow, maybe another 800m shares. CLN holders will want to hit their profit target on the £10m, around 30% so there should be some vested interest in keeping the price above 0.3p at least. Might be choppy but hopefully momentum holds up.

Seems fairly stable for now and news will take time to sink in across the market so plenty of scope for new buyers today. But then we have 1.6bn new shares admitted tomorrow, converted at 0.218p, so very wide margin for paper profit on any traded at current prices. If the broker has done their work then hopefully there won't be too much to sell off.

I think they're pretty much up to date on the volume of shares churned up to that optimum conversion price below 0.22p

It's a sensible move if the numbers add up. As I mentioned last week, many CLN agreements are terminated one or two tranches early if the share price collapses too far. Larger shareholders will sometimes come in with offers to underwrite debt, or the company comes up with new ways to restructure it. So they've done well to engineer a solution here. It has a consequence for profit margin, as the cost of the processing unit will become opex rather than prefunded capex, but the CO2 was always a bonus income. Good solution for now anyway.