Member Info for Blubay

Beasty - I don’t think you can conflate all those separate developments as negatives. If the Colorado project is brought into production on schedule, and if the CO2 side of the project is as lucrative as it appears, then that’s transformative for a company with zero debt. Rukwa will only progress if project funding is forthcoming. The company’s job is to prove that’s worthwhile with the appraisal operations. If they pull that off then all to the good. One thing at a time.

As long as there’s sufficient demand to move shares at double the conversion cost they’ll be happy to let it churn on til it’s done, which shouldn’t be too long maybe month end?

I think they might have moved up to c.500-700m shares in anticipation of the next conversion tranche (£1m to £1.5m @ 0.22p) before the decision was finalised to close the deal altogether. Just a guess based on previous tranches and block movements etc.

The data update in BNL’s summary presentation is helpful. That seems to confirm that all preparations are now complete, and provides production estimates for the plant. That suggests helium output somewhere in line with the revenue expectations from the acquisition deal. But the CO2 revenue potential now looks very healthy at beverage grade. Potentially they could gross as much or more from the CO2 as the helium (e.g. more than $12m each per year at an equivalent mid price of say $400 per Mscf or per ton).

£200-300m pre production would amount to perhaps 100x the predicted annual production revenue from phase 1 in Colorado. What’s the basis for your estimate?

Maybe you could read the actual valuation rather than copying a bulletin board summary into Chat GPT? The assumptions in the broker notes and the CPR are fairly clear. The subsequent change is the equity raise versus operational progress on derisking production.

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The operator's production expectations for Colorado are clearly outlined in the RNS/ASX announcements. There's a detailed CPR for the Rukwa project, pending results from the submersible pump appraisal.

Crypt - "I was warning the new investor or the perils of listening to such people!"

Vastly more money was ever lost on AIM by listening to unsubstantiated ramping then unsubstantiated deramping. If people are misled by short trolls they just hold off and look elsewhere. They might miss out on a sudden gain but they still have their money. If people are misled by long trolls then they invest too early or hold too long and lose their money. Not that anyone should listen to either.

"Buys have been exceeding sells for the last few days, yet share price is drifting down."

There aren't more buys than sells. There are more shares changing hands above mid price than below but it's not the same thing. The average is skewed by the mechanics of the CLN share distribution and the fact the CLN holders aren't allowed to short the share directly. Hopefully the broker/MM manages the supply and demand in a more orderly way for this last stage. The anticipation of news flow is on their side anyway, hopefully.

“ As human labour requirementd decline and are replaced by automation, GDP falls”

Tell that to the Industrial Revolution 🧐

Good to see that company employees are now in for more than £1m in the beneficial share scheme, in addition to any personal holdings or historic options. Wonder if that's why Cope took on a staff role rather than just continuing as a NED? A bit of skin in the game always helps I suppose.

"My theory is that all of the newly cteated shares have been bought and held by the three mystery investors and the fall in share price was as a result of market sentiment."

What would be your evidence or indication for this theory?

The significant one is the EBT, representing a big increase in insider beneficiary holdings

If the 1.6bn shares are being distributed organically through the market then you'd be looking for perhaps 4-5x that volume in overall trade to absorb and churn, but less if there were enough sticky hands waiting to buy and hold. We've seen roughly the 1.6bn volume since Monday's announcement, maybe 0.5bn the week before.

Going back to 10 June RNS, we're hoping that preparation for step 1 is now nearing completion...

"1. Finalising Plant Design: Engineering design studies for the Pinon Canyon Plant are advancing with flow data and gas analysis from the recently completed drilling campaign being integrated. The final design of the helium and CO2 processing plant will be determined once all of the gas analysis and flow modelling has been completed.

2. Site Development: Civil works will commence at the approved Pinon Canyon Plant location once the final plant layout is determined.

3. Equipment Mobilisation: Following site preparations, mobilisation of the plant equipment to the Pinon Canyon site will be undertaken.

4. Well Tie-Ins and Compression: Tie-in of initial production wells, including any necessary well-site gas compression, will proceed alongside plant site civil works.

5. Commissioning: Upon completion of the Pinon Canyon Plant and individual well tie-ins, the plant will be tested and commissioned. This is subject to standard operational permits, environmental compliance, and final readiness assessments."

Yes, the preparatory tasks of engineering specs and design, prerequisite to starting any work on the ground, which were reported to be a sticking point and delayed by six months back in June, are now "nearing completion" (i.e. still not quite completed). I'll breathe easier when they're complete but I'm optimistic they'll have it done this time.

So far as announced, "Gas gathering system design is substantially complete" and "General facility engineering is highly advanced", both of which I take to mean "design stage not yet complete". But they do reiterate that progress is as planned and on schedule for the key milestone of first gas by end of year. They've been very efficient operationally so I would take them at word I think.

When they start clearing the site for the processing plant (minimal civils work) then we'll know they've finally finalised the design (which seems to have been a sticking point) and it's on the way. The pipes are only 4" I think so should be pretty quick to tie in from J31, and network other wells from there. They're going for a selection of wells in phase one but haven't said how many yet.

Better they just get on with the operational planning and report to the market when they have more concrete progress to report. Once BNL break ground in Colorado and the pump arrives in Rukwa there'll be plenty of news flow. In the meantime the CLN share distribution churns away and with a bit of luck will start to clear before there's major results to report.