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How does your honest opinion work that out?

Your use of the term ‘equally’ is misplaced. Risk yes, balance of risk better than 50:50

Spud was always scheduled for second half of September, what's you're reason for thinking it will be missed Aligator?

With a Bid of 0.155p you're barely making 3% on 0.15p, minus fees, but agree that given the possibility of continuing slide over the next week or two without news then preserving the principal comes into play, and potentially better pickings elsewhere in that timeframe

There will be more than one person hoping to get an entry under the placing price, can't blame them for trying although the odds are starting to look slim.

Does anyone know if the Drillmec rig had to be broken down and reassembled to the same extent as the Predator rig and crane for HE1 (due to the load restrictions for trucking on Tanzanian roads). That will have added quite a bit of time to the rigging up at Tai after arrival. Do we expect the same rigging story for Noble? I'm guessing HE1 will still spud before NHE, although their TD is deeper and will take longer.

Margins are pretty slim for any profit from the placing price but there are always people wanting/needing to close their positions and take a break-even outcome if there hasn't been any movement all week (and mitigate any loss of capital due to news over the weekend). But as you've no idea which trades are 'sells' and which are cheap 'buys' it's not really a reliable question.

Since this is quite a leaky ship (see run up to placing) I imagine an uptick in the SP might front run any RNS of spud or helium shows or preliminary confirmation of discovery. Spudding over a weekend might keep a lid on early movers but we might also look for late reported trades today. I'm not expecting an RNS until the drill is well underway (unless they're forced to RNS to explain a sudden SP move) and after any initial snags are dealt with, saying that we spudded a couple of days ago, we're at this depth now, we expect to reach this depth in so many days, etc. So there would be a range of entry and exit points for swing trades as you say. Anyone at the 6p placing price might decide to slice on the first price spike that comes along, 7-8p, 20-30% thanks very much. If they start to sell that'll be an entry point for other people looking to sell on news of results, maybe 9-10p. Anyone who's still in will really want to know if they have enough money left to complete the second drill, and whether they're going to dilute again to raise on the back of first discovery or wait until they have the lab results, or when they set out the second phase plan. Everyone knows they have to raise again to put this in production next year, but maybe they'll pull another rabbit out of the hat with farm out, sale or takeover at Rukwa and go on to self-fund the exploration of other licence prospects. Anything's possible really.

Sounds like good discipline to me. Everyone has their own margins and risk calculations. Probably better in the long term to be stricter with your limits and capital protection than to throw too much weight on high risk AIM shares. If Wannabe doesn't want to risk the current entry price then good luck. Each to their own. Mine's around 6.5p so I added a bit more.

6.39p to buy currently

I can’t see it moving much today, fairly slow volume and nothing’s changed so we’re still in watch and wait territory. Might see some late moves perhaps but I guess could be a spike on rumour Monday and then RNS later in the week.

Do you still have a target price of 0.1 or have you moved up to 0.15?

Art, maybe do some catch up on the past year rather than looking at 2021? Compare the geology of the new drill site relative to the fault line. Compare the diameter of the current drill to the previous one. Compare the plan to cement case this wider well bore as an appraisal well versus the previous 3.5” exploration drill, etc. Certainly there are risks but they are not the same as 2021.

What volume? We’ve had 2.64m shares traded in a quarter of the day against a yen day average volume of 16.15m, so it’s a slower day so far.

Very different market context this time. There was far more risk-on money around for speculative AIM shares in 2021, market is largely risk-off at the moment. Also lots more shares in issue. As the pre-spud price hasn’t peaked on FOMO this time it’s also unlikely to drop dramatically on spud news. I’d guess the trajectory will be slower and steadier, rather than roller coaster. We’ll see.

No, that’s a false expectation from some on this discussion board. RNS will be after spud and detail planned days to TD etc

Yes, it’s not a delay to the scheduled timeframe, but confirms the uncertainty about a precise date. I’m still assuming everything is on track for next week.

And a second post

“ Third party services equipment and personnel continuing to arrive at the Tai-C site ahead of spud.”

It’s too risky to RNS before the drill is turning successfully, in case there are snags. Usually you get an RNS once it’s on track. But I think you would see some kind of price movement in the chart.

As you’ve created a new account just to post this news you won’t be allowed to attach a link. Maybe you can persuade one of your older accounts to post it ;-)