Member Info for Blubay

Yes, they needed to order in a smaller diameter drill bit/sections to do that because they had to case it down to deal with the unstable conditions at fractured basement. The lead time made it unfeasible to wait and they moved to Itumbula. So it's an option, if they have enough conclusive evidence from Itumbula, and if they wanted to move everything back there to try and prove the basement hypothesis without the hydrothermal carrier.

But that broker recommendation is three years old, from Canaccord Genuity in 2021?

"it reached it's high june/july of 2021, without a discovery"

It reached that high because the CEO misled the market by Tweeting the word 'discovery' without being able to back it up with independently verified data and had to resign as a consequence! If there is a proven discovery this time then it will go up and stay up.

If it gets pumped then I'm sure it will go much higher on results. But we would then need some info on the commercial development strategy and finance side to sustain real share price growth, which I'm also hoping for. One step at a time. If we get 4-5p then that will be great, if we get more that will be great too. Talking about 20p is a long way off yet.

You're selecting your facts to talk up an optimistic position. That's fine, I have no problem in assuming at least a £171m market cap if we get data analysis to confirm preliminary results.

The current mCap is much higher than it was at time of the analyst report, which I do think reflects a reasonable level of optimism following the preliminary results. As and when we get some meat on those bones I see no reason why it shouldn't quickly rise to equivalent mCap highs.

It went up to £171m mCap when we thought we had a discovery at Tai, so that's not a bad benchmark from here as and when discovery of some sort is reported to the market.

Stas - 615 million shares in September 2021 at a market price of 9p was £55m market cap, at the time of the analyst note.

Please don't a get a job in resource estimation or financial advice

Yes, but let's all be accurate and realistic. So the Hannam report (let's not pretend these things are entirely independent, as they're commissioned and published by the company to boost the share price, usually for a capital raise)... anyway, if we accept their scenario of a 50% mid chance of discovering 10 bcf recoverable helium from Rukwa as a whole, then the target of 26p equates roughly to 4.3p today (615.3m shares in issue in September 2021, compared to 3.7bn today, factor of 0.166). The share price then was about 9p, which equates to roughly 1.5p today (the most recent placing price). So, you could say that the current share price reflects a reasonable level of market optimism about the drill results de-risking the prospect, but that there is a good bit of headroom for a proven discovery.

The 2021 analyst report, based the risked NAV estimate of share price on "~5bcf helium discovery once fully derisked" (which you would know if you read the sentence after the one you copy and pasted).

The 138 was an unrisked estimate based on 2019 field data and analysis across the Rukwa basin. The total risked (2U/P50) estimate was 14 bcf at that time. Itumbula (across three sites) counted for a P50 risked 0.53 bcf helium (double that for Tai). That was based on a macroseep sampling programme with the Oxford university team, detecting 8-10% helium deep gas concentrations (higher than previous sampling). The spectrometry indicated crustal/basement helium characteristics transported by (volcanic) hydrothermal systems. That is essentially the thesis that appears to be proven by the Itumbula drill. So we're now waiting for de-risked estimates of the prospect, based on data from the drill.

There is no current broker target. There will not be any broker target until there is a full analysis of estimated gas reserve data.

Both sides as bad as each other, it’s a old game, try to fill up the screen with negative or positive thread titles before 8am, and clog up any rational discussion to make the forums unworkable.

They already have the test results. The next thing we’re expecting is a more detailed analysis of those results.

What reason do you have to expect this on Monday? You have no idea. There is no merit in making stuff up and then expecting everyone else to act accordingly.

There are other possibilities in the time sequence of comms. CEO suggests in video that first announcement to market would be detailed data analysis. Probably that would be an RNS summary with parallel publication of an analyst or broker report or shareholder presentation. As she outlined, they also need to propose next development steps, such as further testing of the cased well at Itumbula or/and drilling deeper at Tai3, or drilling more target wells for field discovery analysis. And they would then need to announce their approach to financing that.

No 'negative prediction' was given by anyone, you just made that up. The comment was the same as everyone with any sense here. We are waiting for a detailed report and modelling based on the full analysis of well data. That is what the CEO has said they will provide to the market next, and what the industry requires to assess the commercial value. Clearly, that hasn't been priced in yet, otherwise the SP would be at least double. So everything is as it should be. You have as much right as anyone else to short it while we wait, but just be honest and stop making a fool of yourself.

Where did you do your degree in geology Yana? You haven't a clue, and frankly insulting to describe one of the leading new generation exploration geologists in Africa as a 'rookie'. Grow up.

Thanks for raising this, it’s absolutely appalling behaviour and needs calling out