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How did you pick 20p?

There were 11 TR-1s in a month from late December to the well completion RNS, mostly representing proxies for small traders. The "4.7%" RNS was then more of a placeholder really and only fleshed out what was already in the TD RNS. Some very useful context and some promising detail but not sure it added materially from perspective of a major shareholder move. A new 3% entrant would have to be in the millions and if that was me I'd want to see the numbers first.

Honestly, I wouldn't expect any new large shareholder to come in before a more detailed analysis and commercial costings. Those people are not speculators they only deal in certainties.

Within 2 trading days for a UK issuer of shares, within 4 for a non-UK issuer.

"Where the shareholder is party to or instructed a transaction, he will be deemed to have learned of the transaction no later than two trading days following the transaction."

I sniff a price squeeze coming end of the week/month, hopefully upwards...

"I am genuinely not trying to be rude when I have to say that I think your logic is flawed."

That's a very generous and diplomatic summation Jersey

News - "John Cronford did a VALUATION for Cascabel a day or so ago."

Where is this valuation? Isn't that the broker valuation from 2021?

Beware of accounts phishing for limit sell data

Once bitten twice shy, the market clearly does not yet value the positive preliminary results as highly as it valued the unproven results last time. That may not be a bad thing, a more cautious, more experience investment market with higher share trade volume hopefully leads to a more stable price discovery over time. Fundamentals and market sentiment are two very different things. Like most people, I believe is HE1 is considerably undervalued and significantly de-risked otherwise I wouldn't be invested, and I've been consistently long on this share for years. I just think it's prudent to see that market evolution in stages because we simply have no idea how share price growth will play against future fund raises etc. A lot depends on whether the full analysis is sufficient to sign up significant investment partners, or whether they need to go back to either of the wells, as she mentions in the video, before they get to that point. Then it depends if partner agreements are dilutive or non-dilutive, or a combination. Are they based on future sales, on raising commercial debt against asset value, with or without debt/equity swaps, mergers, acquisition? There are a wide range of possibilities. Mostly transformational for future mCap, mostly unknowable in terms of share price. First step is just to get some sound analysis of share value to proven asset, which I don't doubt is a high number, share price discovery in the market is a different thing.

...although there's loads of errors in it :-)

Just to avoid any more misquoting of the CEO video, here is the transcript...

https://youtubetranscript.com/?v=OLtoKpXsJoU

"To be clear 4.6p is the fully diluted equivalent of the high of 2021 when there was no discovery."

To be clear, it is the diluted equivalent of the high in 2021 when the company mistakenly announced a discovery (which later turned out to be difficult to evidence). If they can evidence it then I don't see any reason to doubt that would be a minimum gain from here, pending further evidence on commerciality, which would be a next stage after that. First you need to value reserves in the ground, then you need to value getting them out. One step at a time.

I'm not de-ramping in the slightest, the share price has gone up 1,000% on news and I expect it to at least double if that news is confirmed. I'm very bullish but my personal investment won't make a jot of difference to the share price, wishing something does not make it happen. After that, there are a lot of contingencies affecting market price.

I honestly haven't a clue Chesh. I think it might take time as they have to work out a model for combining presentation of orthodox and unorthodox data in a reserve estimate model that is sufficiently robust to meet O&G industry standards as a basis for an investment case. That's not straightforward. Reading between the lines they seem to have indication of some trapped reserves at shallower levels (the typical trap and reservoir that the gas industry is familiar with, and what NHE have) but that's probably a modest amount, useful as a backstop but perhaps underwhelming on its own. Then they have to factor in the gas flow liberated from hydrothermal fluids, which isn't a 'reservoir' in the typical sense. I have no idea how they do that but I'm sure they're consulting. They also have to persuade the market that it is commercially recoverable. That brings into play also the hydrogen component they weren't anticipating in the mix. It's always possible they are playing for time too, in order to progress any speculative pre-results discussions with third parties before releasing them. But mainly they have one shot at market impact and they do need to get it right, and be ready to capitalise on it. The media PR is obviously a holding tactic to try and prevent too much natural fade in share price while we wait. I doubt it will be long, she did say it was the 'short term' priority.

Anything in the 4-5p range seems quite realistic (x2 ?) if the detailed analysis backs up the preliminary results

Once the company is in a position to share the full analysis then the market will be able to get its head around the commercial value of the discovery. Until then we have excitement, which is a more volatile commodity than helium flow.

Don't worry, I'm very comforted to be invested and look forward to considerable future returns on my investment.

You only have to click the Broker Ratings tab above this discussion to find it

Yes, there is only one analyst/broker rating and it is from 2021

No, I don't disagree at all. The preliminary results are very encouraging and the share price has responded very positively to that. I'm optimistic. I'm just trying to be realistic that the wider market and institutional investors need a fuller analysis (which the CEO has already indicated will be forthcoming in the short term). If it's good news then we'll see another lift in share price. Then the market will need details of the commercial development plan, costings and timescales. If it's commercial then we'll see a bigger jump in share price.