Member Info for Blubay

Err... not you?

You clearly didn't read my post or the RNS. The raise covered the bills due in April and the side track drill costs. The RNS clearly says that the remaining bills due May-August were expected to be covered by the increased flow rates achieved from the side track

Is that meant to be satire?

Most of that gossip is just pure nonsense intended to make people feel good or bad about holding their shares. In theory MMs can and do influence price by raising and lowering their bid/offer for shares, but there are multiple MMs making bids/offers on each stock and they don't really operate as a cartel. HE1 trades on AIM SETSqx, which is done by MMs participating in periodic auctions through the day. Contrary to popular belief they don't employ thousands of little gnomes to sit all day and monitor the chatter on every individual share listed on the London market though. If they're not active they just widen their margin and the trade will move towards to those with more competitive prices. Some MMs will be very active in some shares when there is trading action to address, but legendary rumours about 'filling a big order' are usually nonsense. A company like HE1 has billions of shares in issue with high trading volumes and it's really not that hard to get them.

Oh, and Market Makers and primary dealers like Liberum capital avail of exemptions from FCA declaration

For example, there are zero declared short positions for HE1 currently, go figure...

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/VGG4392T1075/

OK, to back track, you can see data on declarations of short interest disclosed under the FCA's Short Selling Regulations but I think everyone agrees that many short positions evade that disclosure in various ways, or aren't covered by it.

To be honest, one of the most reliable bellwethers on AIM is to watch the discussion forums like LSE and gauge the appearance and disappearance of obvious short trolling discussion threads ;-) Those threads just don't appear on stable shares.

You can't derive long-short ratio data for a UK share in any direct or simple way. Traders will take short positions in a variety of ways. For example, just selling your shares and hoping to buy them back at a lower price in the future is a clear short position, but you can't measure how many people or shares that affects, other than considering sells as a simple proxy for market belief that the price is going down. Some traders take more committed short positions by borrowing shares, selling them and having to buy them back at some point in the future, but there isn't a declared register of short positions. Then there is a whole bunch of people who just bet on shares going up or down without owning the shares, using spread betting websites, and those betting companies have to take share positions to hedge the bets of their customers (and sometimes you can see those positions if they get large enough to declare voting rights on a T-1)

They will have to consider the additional €1.1m in previously outstanding bills due for payment May-August, which was meant to be funded by increased flow rates. As long as they are out of the well they have no cash flow. Hopefully they can defer again.

Yep, nicely managed today

Possible. As discussed before, I'd imagine the broker will fill the book above 1p and hope to cover risk in advance at a premium above that, anywhere in the current price range would probably just about fulfil the brief. Mcap is above £50m today, so another £10m is only around 20% dilution, at say 25-30% discount to 1.5p (and maybe then a 10:1 share swap going into the production phase). Definitely some some price maintenance going on, but a bit more good news wouldn't go amiss. We'll see. The alleged 'supportive long-term investors' who stepped up for 1.5p last time won't want to get wrecked, so I'm sure everyone's hoping to pull something off in that ballpark.

One is explosive, the other is not

It's not "something on the side to look at, once they start to produce Helium". It's an engineering design challenge that has to be solved before they can produce helium. The key usp for the business is that it's a pure helium play without the complications of processing hydrocarbons. The Hydrogen is a bonus but also has to be dealt with in the plant.

It's a double edged sword , definitely a potential commercial bonus but also a cost and engineering challenge to build a helium processing plant that can deal with it.

Thanks, I see the projected 'operating cash flows' for this well but I don't see any estimations of free cash flow (although they seem to have been open enough about debt etc.). We'll get the 2023 accounts end of June this year and have to fill in the gaps for the current half year 2024.

In the fundraise 150 bopd was anticipated to deliver ocf of €40k per month (@ $80 barrel). Current oil prices work a bit in their favour. At that time (February) the company had cash balance of €1.2m with bills of €1.1m due by April (now), and €1.4m due between May and August (very soon). They raised about €3m to fund the side track drill and they hoped to cover the next due payments from the increased flow rates achieved, so I'm unclear whether the €40k per month estimate is pre or post payment of those dues.

The company as a whole produces a small amount of oil but development of this new well is hoped to significantly increase that when it comes back online, and hopefully leading to one or two more wells in the same field. The company was still making a loss while the new was limited to a low flow rate (and no flow during the current works), so the success of the side drill remains fundamental to the company's survival. I'm not sure what a profit making production rate would be and I think they have not yet published the full financials needed to know this.

"Just 150 BOPD and we are apparently self funding which makes this so attractive."

Where do we get this figure of 150 from?

Rising helium costs bankrupted the last company that tried to commercialise that plan a decade ago. Others are working on it, for example in premium passenger/tourist ventures but still looks prohibitive for scaling up to mainstream freight ops (>$100k for one trip?).

Absolutely, it’s a finely balanced relationship. TZ needs foreign investment to deliver its economic growth ambitions, and mining/O&G is a large part of that, but it exercises a tight regulatory regime on that investment (with a high emphasis on establishing locally based companies, creating local employment, and delivering local tax/fee income). That’s also why HE1 operates through HE1 (Eyasi) and EAH etc