Yes, but let's all be accurate and realistic. So the Hannam report (let's not pretend these things are entirely independent, as they're commissioned and published by the company to boost the share price, usually for a capital raise)... anyway, if we accept their scenario of a 50% mid chance of discovering 10 bcf recoverable helium from Rukwa as a whole, then the target of 26p equates roughly to 4.3p today (615.3m shares in issue in September 2021, compared to 3.7bn today, factor of 0.166). The share price then was about 9p, which equates to roughly 1.5p today (the most recent placing price). So, you could say that the current share price reflects a reasonable level of market optimism about the drill results de-risking the prospect, but that there is a good bit of headroom for a proven discovery.
The 2021 analyst report, based the risked NAV estimate of share price on "~5bcf helium discovery once fully derisked" (which you would know if you read the sentence after the one you copy and pasted).
The 138 was an unrisked estimate based on 2019 field data and analysis across the Rukwa basin. The total risked (2U/P50) estimate was 14 bcf at that time. Itumbula (across three sites) counted for a P50 risked 0.53 bcf helium (double that for Tai). That was based on a macroseep sampling programme with the Oxford university team, detecting 8-10% helium deep gas concentrations (higher than previous sampling). The spectrometry indicated crustal/basement helium characteristics transported by (volcanic) hydrothermal systems. That is essentially the thesis that appears to be proven by the Itumbula drill. So we're now waiting for de-risked estimates of the prospect, based on data from the drill.
There are other possibilities in the time sequence of comms. CEO suggests in video that first announcement to market would be detailed data analysis. Probably that would be an RNS summary with parallel publication of an analyst or broker report or shareholder presentation. As she outlined, they also need to propose next development steps, such as further testing of the cased well at Itumbula or/and drilling deeper at Tai3, or drilling more target wells for field discovery analysis. And they would then need to announce their approach to financing that.
No 'negative prediction' was given by anyone, you just made that up. The comment was the same as everyone with any sense here. We are waiting for a detailed report and modelling based on the full analysis of well data. That is what the CEO has said they will provide to the market next, and what the industry requires to assess the commercial value. Clearly, that hasn't been priced in yet, otherwise the SP would be at least double. So everything is as it should be. You have as much right as anyone else to short it while we wait, but just be honest and stop making a fool of yourself.
Field PVT, I think she said?
https://fieldpvt.com/