The RTO Part 27 Aug 2016 14:59
Accordingly, the business will be being funded in the short-term by the convertible notes from Michael Travia’s family trust, DJFT, and Capresi, of which £700k can still be drawn down, but what with fees related to the deal of over A$800,000, the business actually starts its life with net liabilities and although it has managed to get its working capital statement signed off that it has funds for 12 months, it must be close.
To reemphasise the point, the proforma net assets of the combined business (page 62) estimates a net liability position as at 31 December 2015 of A$760,000 and the position won’t have improved since then.
In any event, starting life under the pressures of death spiral financing from Darwin, DJFT and Capresi is hardly an auspicious start, particularly as £600,000 of that funding is from the Travia, who will be an Executive Director of the enlarged group. All feels a bit messy.
Thirdly, and readers will know this is a bugbear of mine, the pricing. Apparently, the consideration shares are being issued at 8p, valuing the start-up that Forte is buying at £3.4 million. That seems toppy, but it’s also nonsense. There is no new money coming in here so that price is meaningless, it is an arbitrary figure agreed between two groups incentivised to come up with a high number.
Let’s take a step back and have a think about valuing a business with net liabilities, no revenues, operates in an unexciting area, in need of additional funding shortly and awash with convertible debt.
Personally, £2 million would be a push, which using the 57 million shares in issue at admission gets me to a share price of 3.5p, which pre-consolidation is a share price of around 0.002p.
On Friday, the share price closed at 0.006p – three times my valuation.
In addition, it’s hard to know how many shares Darwin still have. I struggle to believe that it managed to sell all 9 billion that it received in December, pre-suspension, so I suspect that there will be plenty of selling pressure around.
If I was a shareholder, I would be doing the same as Darwin - SELL.