Member Info for bloch

Clumpet - "Block, you see the potential and want a good buy in " So I don't think 0.003p is a good buy in having watched the share price collapse 50% from 0.006p in under two weeks. You think I'm hanging around and deramping for an 80% collapse?

You must be over 18 to read the article below. Reader discretion is advised. Forte Energy – mea culpa, my valuation was wrong..…it was far too high! - Tuesday 9 August 2016 Two weeks ago, following the release of its admission document I wrote about the valuation of Forte Energy (FTE) HERE. It was at 0.006p at the time and I thought 0.002p was a better reflection of the value. Well the share price has dropped to 0.0035p in the meantime but the bad news for those that have stuck it out so far is that my valuation should have been lower. I failed to take account of the Darwin conversions, the last of which was this morning. As a result of the conversion of its final £300,000 of debt, in three tranches, the shares in issue have ballooned from 13 billion to over 22 billion. 9 billion shares in two weeks – astonishing! I do have a smidgeon of admiration for Darwin’s negotiation skills as the admission document stated that once its debt was below £100,000, it would negotiate a potential standstill agreement; however, its debt never went below £100,000…..until today when it converted its final £100,000. As a result of that incredible dilution, the consolidation ratio at the time of the upcoming RTO has increased from 1,824 to 1 to 2,992 to 1. Accordingly, even if one were to believe that the arbitrarily agreed upon figure of 8p was a fair value post-consolidation, then the current price should be 0.0027p. As I mentioned in my previous piece, I believe that 8p (market cap of £4.6 million) is punchy for a pre-revenue Fintech (sic) business in the exciting space of meeting notes and timesheets so would argue a fairer valuation of about half that leading to a share price today of around 0.0013p. The future is probably worse than that though as at times like these, one should endeavour to learn the lessons from history. When Forte entered into its last deal with Darwin in March 2015, issuing £1 million of convertible notes for £900,000 in funding, it had about 3 billion shares in issue and its share price was about 0.09 giving a market cap of approaching £3 million. As mentioned above, the shares in issue have increased by 650% since then and the share price has dropped by 96%. That is what happens when a business that doesn’t perform is at the mercy of death-spiral financing.

Ironically, post-RTO, the business will, in my view, be worth about the same as it was then, about £3 million, be pre-revenue (much as it was then) and have £900,000 of convertible notes outstanding (much as it did then). Someone much wiser than me said something like fools learn from experience and wise men learn from history which I think translates as: SELL!

graham-wales "..... That's the spiral bit.........." And the 'Death' bit is that companies like Darwin are the last resort lender to companies that have no future. Companies that cannot get bank loans. Companies that have no institutional backers. Companies where the directors won't touch their own stock with a barge pole. This is what you have here. The 7% fall today. So what happen to the 300% rise you were all predicting when Darwin were fully and officially out. There is no rise because there are shed loads of conversion stock still to come. FTE owe DJFT and Capresi £200k of conversion loan money. That is another 7 billion shares at today's price. On top there is another £800k of conversion loan stock available for use. In the admin doc BGK advised of the need to raise further working capital over the next 12 months. Stand back and take a good hard look and ask why is DJFT lending BGL money via conversion loan stock anyway. Why don't they just invest in BGL, take a major stake if they're so confident of its future?. Why are shareholders having to pay them back when MT owner of DJFT has seat on the board. Speak Later.

g-w -"Did they agree to standstill or was it a misleading quote. Won't be the first by these" All quotes on these AIM stocks are left open ended given the directors the authority to do exactly the opposite to what they have told PIs what is likely to happen. Just like the director share lock in statement depending on certain "exemptions". Gone.

graham-wales "If it's going to multi bag why are Darwin selling out" Its the one question nobody seems able to answer. Darwin are in the business of making money. The RTO is but two weeks away. Considering they've been here for over a year why can they not wait for two weeks. Afterall they had agreed to participate in a standstill agreement. Some answer its their business model to cash up asap. Oh really then why has it taken them over a year to do so. Darwin want out before the RTO because they are not going to compete for PI money with DJFT, Capresi and other discounted placing issues. Speak Later

Shardster - "you have absolutely no proof of that," Of course I have no proof of it. Nobody but the SFO, City of London Police and FCA can gather proof of any financial malfeasance in the city. For rest of us its all speculation and hearsay. We have to wait until we have lost all our money and traders are fined or sentenced before we have any proof.

Shardster - "'fake buys' you are losing the plot on a daily basis" Yes 'fake buys and fake sells' to give the impression to gullible private investors of trends that they're about to miss out on. Everyone has heard of a MM shakes. They drop the price on a series of fake sells to entice you to materialise or your gains or cut your losses before you lose anymore money. No sooner do you sell out and up shoots the price again. This also happens in reverse believe it or not.

Don't let the MM fool you into thinking there will be any rises. They put up the bid but don't let anyone out at 0.0035p with significant amounts. They also push through their own fake buys to make you think you're about to miss the next wave up.

cygnet4 Technically speaking you are correct. But you have to understand the difference between shares that are locked into directors and institutional portfolios for a number of years and shares that are with directors and institutions because the company has just listed.

deltalo - "Only 58.4 % of shares will be in public hands on admission." You don't understand what public hands mean. You seem to think the smaller the percentage of shares in public hands the greater the potential for the stock to rise. This is not true. If the directors announced there would be no selling of their 41.6% and no further equity issues over the next 12 months there might be some merit in what you say. But the directors can sell into any rises or falls. They can issue shares whenever they like so technically speaking 100% of the shares are in public hands.

So much for the standstill agreement. Will this now rise RUBBISH. The MM can forward sell shares and the square books when the DJFT and Capresi conversions are exercised on the day and after the RTO. If you hold 100 million shares they become 33k shares on consolidation. If you hold 20 million shares they become 6.6k on consolidation. That's not why you guys are here.

Look all that's happening is that worthless paper is being dumped onto the markets ahead of even more worthless paper when the RTO conversions kick in.

In comes the PIs now at 0.003p Gone

There you go under 0.003p to buy. The 50m seller is none of you guys but an institution. The price makes no difference to them its your cash that they're after. Some PIS will think "WOW!! a real buying/top up opportunity" and in they go in thinking this is the bottom. Well no there is no bottom if PIs are prepared to spend £000s at 0.001p then the shares will be made available at that price.

Shardster - "anybody selling at under 3 will be losing money " Not if your name is Darwin, Carpesi or DJFT. Speak Later

There were seven market makers on this stock. There are now only four. Only one market maker is offering 0.003p on the bid. Once that goes you'll be down to the 0.002s

Shukan - " remember cashed up 12 months" They are not cashed up for 12 months. They have in place funding arrangements to cover the next twelve months. The funding arrangements would be the conversion facilities from DJFT, Capresi and the authority given by the shareholders to issue equity to provide working capital. Stop lying for a change.

MilkyWay - "All the while Bloch post here the more shares I want to buy fact" Interesting you should say that but what I have noticed is that nobody here ever talks about buying shares after the RTO only before. As I said to you all what brings you here is not the fundamentals but the thought of owning zillions and zillions of shares that may one day make you all millionaires. None of you are interested in buying stock at 8p. Am I right?

Washer This is the paragraph you should be focussing on. "Apparently, the consideration shares are being issued at 8p, valuing the start-up that Forte is buying at £3.4 million. That seems toppy, but it’s also nonsense. There is no new money coming in here so that price is meaningless, it is an arbitrary figure agreed between two groups incentivised to come up with a high number."