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Just a thought.
SLB have a significant input into where Te11 location will be.
Many believe that SLB are potential purchasers of the Sound Energy interest in Morocco.
If Te10 comes in to the extent that they then have enough information to table a bid for Sound, in all probability they'll want the Te11 drill result to be theirs (to potentially keep the price down).
Its a long time since we mentioned contingent payments based on TCF's uncovered over the next (for example)three years following a sale.
I'm still of the firm belief that this is they type of deal we'll end up with.
So £2.00 initially followed by contingent payments of 25p for every TCF proven over the following three year period would work for me.
As announced on 28 January 2019, the testing and stimulation equipment has been mobilised from Libya and Tunisia. The Company has decided to utilise heavy duty perforating guns to maximise the gas flow rate and extra equipment has now been mobilised from the USA. The Company is expecting the equipment to arrive on location, and be rigged up and be ready to commence the test programme within four weeks.
Hate to be pedantic but I read this four week estimate as relating to the testing equipment coming from Libya and Tunisia. This doesn’t relate to the perforating equipment coming from the States.
Moving equipment across land to an American port, sailing to a Moroccan port and then mobilising to Tendrara, setting up, testing and certifying is not going to occur in four weeks.
Doesn’t have to though. As long as it’s ready for the end of the unstimulated tests, all is good.
Should have also made more of the following point when detailing timelines:
"Stimulated production flow tests will then follow in late March, over the most prospective reservoir zones, and are expected to take at least 30 days. The Company expects the initial post stimulation flow rate around end March".
So consider this:
At the end of March we should expect to hear news on unstimulated flow rates and then the stimulated flow rates commence (hopefully a seamless operation) and take at least thirty days. This takes us to May.
Its apparent (to me) right now that nothing will commence of Te11 until we're past this point. If you doubt the rationale behind my timeline estimate, consider the history and the estimates provided by the company so far.
Quite cleverly, they haven't stated that the stimulated flow rates for Te10 are expected to be available in May. They've simply phrased things in a different manner.
A tad frustrating I might add.
Te10 Timelines:
Stimulated production flow tests will then follow in late March, over the most prospective reservoir zones, and are expected to take at least 30 days. The Company expects the initial post stimulation flow rate around end March.
So account for minor slippage (because we're mobilising equipment from America) and we're looking at mid April before we get the stimulated flow rates for Te10.
Or two months from now.
We started drilling Te10 on December 7th. The groundworks for Te10 took around six weeks to complete, prior to this.
Imagine then, following completion of Te10, that we wait a month or so for a decision on where the third drill location (Te11) will be, perhaps based on the Te10 results (I know they shouldn't be connected but they may be).
So mid May we commence ground works for Te11 and by the end of June/early July, we then commence drilling Te11.
By mid August (Estimating 30 to 40 days for drilling) we have some kind of result that then requires testing (hopefully).
Using Te10 as a comparator, from early December 18 to end of March/April 19 equates to four months, so for Te11, late November to mid December 19 and we're looking at some kind of early Christmas news.
Then we spend Q1 2020 hoping for a sale to be finalised.
Now, this is all based on guesswork and assumptions but when have Sound ever came in on time ?
I think this is a realistic schedule based on historical events.
So without wishing to sound overly pessimistic, I think we have another twelve months before Parsons delivers any news on an LE offer.
I hope I'm way off the mark but can anyone remember how long we waited just to get started on Te9. All the delays based on moving the rig and getting re-certified equipment from Italy. Seemed to be a stalling process and many doubted as to whether we'd even drill Te9 at all.
When the ground works starts on Te11, I suggest that we add five to six months or so from that date.
Te10 is an example of this timeline.
Now an offer could obviously come in at anytime. I wish it would.
But if I had to call a date for LE, I'd say February 2020.
Possibly the biggest caveat to all of this, is that if Te10 has transformational results, we'll be sat at a completely different SP from around the start of Q2 with no real reason for it ever to reduce significantly. Now that's a comfortable thought.
Tin hat on.
GLA.
I took this mornings RNS as almost a holding statement until we've managed to clarify the flow rates that can be achieved.
Still very hopeful of a good result.
At the end of this mornings RNS, the following statement was made:
"The information contained in this announcement has been reviewed by Sound Energy's Exploration Director, Brian Mitchener, a chartered petroleum geologist. The estimated volumes are made in accordance with SPE standards. Bcf means trillion standard cubic feet per day".
I'm almost certain that this isn't correct and seems like a schoolboy error that we should be beyond making, particularly in an RNS.
Acealfa
I'm bored..
A million cars using 80,000 gallons equates to about one third of a litre each car which suggests that the cars aren't running all day, whereas the cruise ship would be, in order to burn 80,000 gallons.
However, if a car averaged 45mpg (or 45 miles per 4.5 litres), this equates to 10 mile per litre or 3.5 mile per one third of a litre.
So travelling at 45mph, you'd need 411 cars with only one third of a litre of fuel in the tank, to run for 24 hours and in this period, the 411 cars (one running after another) would burn 32 gallon.
So, in order to burn 80,000 gallons, you'd need a convoy of 2500 cars, all running for 3.5 mile each before handing over to the next car.
In other words, using your figures, this equates to using 1,027,500 cars but you fail to add the important factor of each car is only running for ten minutes.
Put another way, if you used 45mpg as the rule of thumb, this equates to 32 gallons used in twenty four hours so you'd only need 2500 cars, not 1,000,000.
Told you I was bored.
Offshore, when we lose our gas supplies, we use around 37,000 gallons of diesel per day to run generators that keep the lights on.
Just sayin...
I've probably got this wrong but I await the next RNS with a view of there being a number of outcomes:
There's no commercial gas levels in the Stratigraphic trap.
There's no commercial gas levels in the tight sands of the Tagi.
There's commercial gas flows from the Tagi but not in the trap.
There's commercial gas flows at differing levels, including the Tagi and the trap.
Regardless of the above possibilities, I agree with PNE. Why re we now holding back on the groundworks on Te11 given that this was supposed to be three back to back drills, with no correlation between the locations.
All about proving up the whole license area.
I like to think that there's a deal being worked in the background. Realistically, I believe that if something is being worked, a Schlumberger and ONHYM partnership is the most likely outcome - though this may not involve big numbers.
The news at present is all about the potential for a "no deal" scenario at the end of March.
I think I'll be more gutted if Sound get to the end of March only to find that we're still in a no deal scenario.
I read his recent posts as maybe suggesting that Schlumberger may pull the plug on Te11 based on a lack of confidence in the acreage.
He/She does blow hot and cold.
Draws you in with positives then bombshells you with alleged well informed posts, almost as if the information comes from somewhere within, connections to the government or to ONYHM or whoever on the Morocco side of the fence.
Exploration may be connected. Or perhaps not.
I suggest, probably not.
He has spent lots of time and posts building up this reputation. Some would suggest through nothing other than a cut and paste technique.
Then, as we get close to news, either good or bad, he paints the negative.
I suggest that we see through this and simply hold.
We've all seen it before, though usually its more subtle and from a patient and skilled de-ramper.
I like the desperation in his post, it smells of good news coming.
F**k You Exploration. We haven't come this far to be fooled by fools like you.
Back to feeling optimistic after a difficult period.
I guess you have to have been buying in the 80's and 90's to understand how the last few months have felt.
Hopefully T10 will blow the doors off and these lower numbers will be gone forever.
I view this as the really critical stage for Sound Energy now.
Yes, we still have Sidi and the GSA to be announced. Plus T11 to drill.
But.
If we see non commercial rates from T10, we'll likely drop significantly again with one throw of the dice left.
Bad news on T10 will shatter the SP (akin to T09).
That scenario leaves a big gamble for anyone to continue buying, in the hope that T11 comes good.
But it appears that the company have learnt from their communication errors and the measured but optimistic news on T10 is strategically the correct way to play this.
Based on the recent RNS and the plans through February, I believe that we may be holding an absolute ace in T10. A field placed 25km from the T05 horst.
With so many other areas left to explore in the whole license area.
When news comes through on the scale of the net pay zone, the flow rates, the pressures, the composition of what's down there, the potential number of TCF's - we'll all be home and dry in terms of basking in profit.
Please remember that a good many of us are still underwater here.
So is T10 critical. Absolutely - if you're still underwater.
I'd like to buy more at 30p but the recent pain of a 90p puchase dropping to 11p was something to learn from and I have.
But for those still in profit or those that aren't in this yet - what a wonderful opportunity.
Not predicting LE prices other than to say if this zone comes off, we'll all make significant gains.
Hopefully in 2019.
After the recent pain of nearly £70k reducing to £10k, that's all I'm now hoping for.
GLA.
250
Thanks for the measured and interesting response.
Blade
250.
There was a time when I was a fan, an advocate of your views on Sound Energy.
Then the relentless Trade Plan criticism changed things for me. It was a tad too relentless.
Good to see you posting on Echo.
I was fortunate to get in early, before the change from IRG to Echo occurred. Then I also benefitted from the Open Offer.
My point is that I do have a vested interest here in Echo and I'm interested particularly in your view of the Echo potential versus the Sound potential given the RNS releases from both companies over the last two days,
Thoughts ?
I first bought Sound shares in mid 2016 then slowly but surely topped up over time.
I recall buying at 88 and 92p.
Dread to think what my average is but know that over £60k invested is now worth around £15I.
All my choice and I’m responsible for my decisions.
The sour taste that I have at this time is that I feel duped by a snake oil salesman agenda from a CEO. Naively I thought a CEOs behaviour would have more honesty and integrity. Probably because for all of my working life, that’s the behaviour that I’ve become accustomed to from CEOs.
Values, morales, ethics. Integrity.
The harsh facts are that the Sound Energy CEO has all the traits of a used car salesman and none of a reputable CEO.
Remember the Echo energy debacle ? What was that about....
Then the trading plan.
Golden tickets and umpa lumpas FFS. How I wish I’d never watched that video’d event at the Gherkin.
Where’s the GSA.
Lucas baby.
The Sidi Farm out.
Very disappointed at my own decisions and judgement.
Stuck with now.
I’d be delighted with a 50p liquidity event but can’t see it happening.
Apologies for the rant but if you’re reading this Mr Parsons, you should start delivering for your shareholders and stop spouting bull”””t.
Rumour has it, the King of Morocco currently has JP, BM and JJT under lock and key, in a dungeon underneath his magnificent kingdom.
Their passports have been confiscated. Their bank accounts frozen.
They await their fate, all dependent upon the results from a drill site in Eastern Morocco.
As a contingency plan in case things go awry and from the confines of his cell, BM decided to dig a tunnel to connect up with JJT and JP's dungeon. However, inexplicably he somehow got his drilling coordinates wrong and ended up in the camel's stable underneath a heap of camel dung.
Stinking of methane gas he stumbled into the courtyard and was found choking. The guards rushed him off to the Kings parlour where he spluttered out something about how he'd ended up in the motherlode in Morocco.
The King currently has him writing up the next RNS.
You heard it hear first.
You gotta learn to laugh guys.
GLA LTH's.
:)
I recall many years ago watching Pulp Fiction where the guy wearing the Gimp suit, has Bruce Will strapped up in a chair in the cellar awaiting a horrible fate.
As an innocent young man, I thought "what on earth makes people do this". "Why would anyone enjoy inflicting such torture".
Then many years on, here I am sat being tortured over this AIM share, perversely waiting on the outcome of this "now" long term investment.
There appears to be some on here who spend their live's walking around in a proverbial Gimp suit enjoying the torture that they try and inflict on others.
There's others who should remember that Bruce Willis got past the potential torture, battered the gimp and lived to fight another day.
After all is said and done, I'm not sure that I'll ever do AIM again.
Give me the result's of Te9, a boost to the SP and its fasten your belts for the ride through Q1 next year - though a stonking result could see the LE offer come sooner than we envisaged.
At the very least, we don't mention eighteen months anymore which suggests we may be done and "dusted" (excuse the pun) at some point in 2019.
We know we're going to hit gas. It's all about how much and whether its able to be extracted at commercial flow rates.
Given all the planning, the patience, the delays to so many targets and promises, it's time to hold the faith for a little while longer and ignore the gimps.
When this comes good, it could blow the bloody doors off !!
GLA.
:)