Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Well done. Good call.
As this is a non binding offer, they could probably have released this GSA news at any time.
Maybe even have used it in a few weeks time to soften the blow of a non commercial Te10.
But they haven't felt the need to do this.
I wonder why.
Tick tock....
SoundsRich.
I'm expecting good news that sounds like no news, or the promise of great news next time!
That sounds like a hobbit saying :
So.
Today is one hundred and thirty three days since we started drilling Te10.
Alas, one hundred and thirty three days is far too short a time to debate among such excellent and admirable PI's.
I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Good news before one hundred and fifty days hopefully.
I think that sums things up.
Medi111
Probably not.
I've worked with SLB on my platform on a significant fraccing job. What I can describe may well be different to how they normally plan and operate.
But.
We had a plan and a start date for the fraccing and testing equipment and people to arrive.
Their strategy at the time was simply to flood the platform with every type of equipment that "may" be required and every discipline of person that "may" be required, from chemists, to engineers to differing types of trades people. When the planned start date came, so did their equipment and people (around sixty).
We had so many non-working SLB people onboard, that they were sitting in corridors because there was no room left in the recreation rooms. The SLB argument was simply that they'd rather pay for extreme levels of spares and redundancy rather than suffer a delay to an operation through having to wait for an item of equipment or discipline of person.
It was uncomfortable to accept at the time, but they knew what they were doing and came in on time and under budget.
So to answer your point, I'm not sure that SLB's idea of good planning would be compliant with the planning economics and efficiencies expected by many companies. So they're different.
Furthermore based on what I've just described, I find it hard to accept that SLB would plan in the fashion that we're seeing with Sound. They'd know what they needed from the get go and they'd have it (with spares) available and then they'd crack on with real execution.
This must be difficult for SLB - unless of course my experience of them was a one off.
SundaySun,
You do make a good point.
However,
Any organisation faced with the challenge of proving up a well like Te10 would understand and be able to define the distinct planned stages required for this project.
This would be costed up front.
You don't acquire well testing equipment and perforating guns and people, to then pay for them to be idle whilst you wait on CT equipment arriving.
All the stages would be identified and sequenced before the activity commenced.
Deviation from an agreed plan should only arise when unforeseen circumstances dictate a required change.
All I'm saying is that the news feeds released in the RNS data since January, reads like this has not been a well planned activity.
Perhaps there's another reason for stringing out the time.
PoEun
I think we're all used to delays with Sound. It is what it is and I think over time I've just been conditioned to accept this.
Many other PI's will now be the same.
However, what does concern me is the "contradictory" statements made which all go towards explaining further delays, unless I'm reading too much into this.
Take the statement from the RNS released on April 2nd.
"As confirmed in the Company's announcement of 21 March 2019, testing operations at TE-10 are underway and continue. The test programme involves rigless re-entry of the TE-10 well, acquisition of cement bond log information, and both unstimulated and stimulated flow tests on multiple intervals. The Company is anticipating the arrival of Coiled Tubing from Tunisia prior to perforating and initiating the unstimulated tests, followed by the stimulated flow test."
In one statement we say "testing operations at Te-10 are underway and continue".
Two sentance's later, we say "The company is anticipating the arrival of coiled tubing from Tunisia prior to perforating and initiating the UNSTIMULATED tests, followed by the stimulated flow test.
Now given that in January we'd mobilised the testing equipment from Libya and Tunisia.
Then in February we decided that we needed the "big guns" from America.
Then in April we announced that we were waiting on Coiled tubing from Tunisia, it doesn't look like like efficient planning to me. I completely accept that there could be logistical issues that we're unaware of.
If my organisation planned and executed like this, there'd be big questions needing good answers at high levels.
Which all makes me wonder.
Why the stalling tactics ?
What is JP and BOD actually planning because it doesn't appear that their focus is only on the Te10 results.
Wishful thinking perhaps...
GLA :)
Based on the below statements, provided in the three RNS releases on Te10 this year, I'm now anticipating a late May/June update rather than anything in the next few weeks. Hope I'm wrong. Have a read and make your own assessment.
Thoughts anyone ??
28th Jan
Design, planning and procurement for the TE-10 testing programme is nearing completion. The Company confirms that the testing programme will include stimulation of the well and that the testing and stimulation equipment is already being mobilised to site by Schlumberger from Libya and Tunisia.
The first stage of the TE-10 testing programme, which will commence early February, will conduct a series of flow tests on multiple intervals between 1,899m MD and 2,070m MD to establish the presence of deepest moveable gas, and reduce the range of uncertainty on gas resource volumes.
The Company then intends, once the stimulation equipment has arrived, to mechanically stimulate the most prospective reservoir zones in a series of production flow tests. The stimulated test is expected to take at least 30 days from commencement.
18th February
As announced on 28 January 2019, the testing and stimulation equipment has been mobilised from Libya and Tunisia. The Company has decided to utilise heavy duty perforating guns to maximise the gas flow rate and extra equipment has now been mobilised from the USA. The Company is expecting the equipment to arrive on location, and be rigged up and be ready to commence the test programme within four weeks. From mid-March, a series of unstimulated flow tests will be conducted on multiple intervals between 1,899m MD and 2,070m MD to establish the presence of deepest moveable gas. Stimulated production flow tests will then follow in late March, over the most prospective reservoir zones, and are expected to take at least 30 days. The Company expects the initial post stimulation flow rate around end March.
2nd April
As confirmed in the Company's announcement of 21 March 2019, testing operations at TE-10 are underway and continue. The test programme involves rigless re-entry of the TE-10 well, acquisition of cement bond log information, and both unstimulated and stimulated flow tests on multiple intervals. The Company is anticipating the arrival of Coiled Tubing from Tunisia prior to perforating and initiating the unstimulated tests, followed by the stimulated flow test.
Here we are, three weeks later.
I don't expect to hear any news in April. I reckon mid May for stimulated test results.
For a variety of reasons this could be considered a bit of a saga, but, if we get this right I can't see us moving to another drill stage. Not even a re-entry of Te2.
Perhaps this is pure optimism but we may well be within a month or so of proving up enough of the whole seismic against the acreage for a buyer to emerge.
If not, I think we're here until 2020.
ShaunGreen
In response to your bad taste post from last night.
I believe that the original post from “badtoad” got Phils handle wrong.
Do a search for Philshivers and the name does not exist.
The name PhilSilvers does exist.
Hence the post relating to Phil Silvers and not Philshivers.
A simple mistake by badtoad and possibly even an autocorrect.
Whenever I read Phils posts in the past I thought of Sgt Bilko but only because of the name.
Phil Silvers, A man that brought a smile to the faces of many.
Unlike you.
You really are a top class tw#t.
The only saving grace of a failure of Sound Energy to succeed in achieving a healthy LE, is that people like you will lose out.
Utter To##er.
Have some respect man.
Table.
When Fellrunner posts this early and Petrol gives out snippets of presumed inside information, you just know its going to be one of those days.
Time to switch the laptop off and head off to the golf course.
Have a great weekend all.
Hi Lelo
When I produced the calculations for differing sizes of export gas pipelines, I seem to recall that the exit point was around 80barg and made the assumption that the entry point, some 120km away, would be around 120barg.
Can’t find that info on exit point pressures now but regardless, the 40barg differential pressure drop and frictional losses encountered equates to around four times the amount of flow though a 20” compared with a 12”.
I note that JJ’a figures equate to three times. I disagree but my calcs were based on straight pipe, with an estimated DP and not knowing the topography of the landscape.
Either way, choosing a 20 is a big statement.
Interesting video of the London event. I felt the BOD demonstrated a quiet and controlled confidence that was different to previous deliveries.
When BM spoke about Te10 and the potential thats there, it stuck me that this could become the hub area and that the Te5 Horst area could easily tie into the Te10 hub, rather than vice versa.
That’s a game changer for us.
At the moment we have less that half a TCF (proven) in the area that will be our central gas processing facility. This could easily turn into a little outreach or satellite area that is tied into the hub at Te10 location, some18kms away..
For me, this would be the trigger for LE.
In other words, if Te10 flows well and the seismic indicates that this is a spill area, there’s enough data there for someone to come in and develop the whole license, probably over many decades.
For this reason (think decades of gas production), I’d like to see a price in multiple £s with contingent payments based on further finds.l
One last point, the GSA is important but I think we all know the price range. If we only had the Te5 Horst area, then the GSA is critical to the commercial viability of the development required to get gas to the markets.
But if Te10 becomes the hub, oh my, whoever steps in to develop this license is making serious profits, even at the lower end of the anticipated GSA scale.
The next four weeks or so is enormously important as well know. I tend to agree with JTF (who talks nonsense mixed with good sense at times). The LE could now be close. I think there’s a good chance that our shares will be suspended pending a deal in the next three to six months.
Read all the posts from last weeks meeting in London. Thanks to all who made the effort and shared the comms.
No sign of groundworks on Te11.
Delays to the testing of Te10 (apparently whilst we wait on equipment).
I wonder how much time it takes a prospective buyer to analyse the data room material, the seismic detail. The history of all our wells, successful or not.
Perhaps it takes about as long as its taken for equipment to get to eastern Morocco. A period of negotiations. The final price determined by the results of this last well.
Following the London meet and discussions with the BOD, quite a few stated that they don't believe we'll ever get to Te11.
We all know that we could easily have had the location chosen and the pad prepared to go again - yet we haven't acted for whatever reason..
Conscious decision. The new owner may want plenty of running room as part of the sale.
Is the finishing line in sight ?
Could we see quick fire RNS releases that state what Te10 will flow at, followed quickly by an offer and a recommendation to accept ?
Has to end at some point.
Ducati,
How do you interpret this ?
I'm perhaps reading too much into this but we've waited so long for the GSA and then we get this news.
Think this through.
Between the lines, are we being told that Te10 is going to make a significant difference to what would have been agreed for the Te5 Horst area only ??
Strikes me that there's a level of confidence that can't be shared yet but this RNS almost spells it out.
Looking good to me...
For the life of me,
I can't understand why we sit at this low twenties level, on the cusp of what could be transformational news.
Make's me think that good news on Te10 may not provide a jet prolusion to >50p.
Any views on the SP if Te10 adds significantly to our portfolio ?
Strategically, there's been a single common theme that I've witnessed since buying Sound shares around three to four years ago.
The strategy has been consistently applied, albeit at times, probably not purposefully as external circumstances dictate and can be outwith the BOD control.
The strategy relates quite simply to taking time with every step. A once only chance to do this right.
Some would call this delays and I appreciate and feel the frustration associated with what appears to be stalling tactics.
We're in the year when the majority expect news of a Liquidity Event. It's fair to suggest that most would be dissapointed if we're still discussing Sound Energy at this time in 2020.
So the BOD have to do something in communication terms, to prevent significant unrest.
The worry is that Te10 may be uncommercial and the SP would tank. I'm not sure if this get together in London could go towards appeasing this scenario.
Conversely, perhaps the BOD want to offer our long term and loyal investors inferances that they should be sweeping up any shares on offer at this price because the results are going to be huge.
Increasingly, I'm of the belief that starting work on Te11 now, would send negative signals regarding Te10. So we wait and this could be a long four to six weeks.
In summary, I personally don't think there'll be an RNS before 14th March but the inferences made and conversations held on the 14th will count and we'll be relying on BB posters to keep us abreast of things.
I'm in Germany for that week and won't be able to attend. It almost feels unfair.
If I was attending, I'd have a single question or statement to make:
"James, you've always been bold with your statements, you've kept us hanging until 2019. We have potentially one last well to drill. Timelines now must be clearer to you than they've ever been. Can you please indicate if this company will be up for sale or sold in H2, 2019 ? "