Member Info for BlackSwan

Eroton's high quality/low-cost cost oil ($10) should theoretically enable us to survive and even prosper through the current oil price wars taking place between US/Russia/Saudi Arabia. The low price levels could continue for some time until Russia/Saudi using these price levels succeed in "killing" US shale oil production output that has been used by the US over recent years to negate Opec+ actions to shore up the oil price.
The Russia government fiscal break-even price for oil is reported to be about $40/b although it has been reported they could weather oil prices as low as $25-30/b (Rosneft's break-even price is $20/b.) for up to 6-10 years by utilising their national wealth fund, the fund reportedly holds more than $150 billion, in order to sustain the economy through any shortfalls in the oil price below $40/b
The Saudia government, on the other hand, is reported to have a government fiscal break-even price for oil as high as $85/b which even with their production levels as cheap as $10/b means they will have to utilise their Saudi sovereign wealth fund currently valued at $515 billion and is considered strong enough to support the current low or even lower oil price levels for some time.

The US shale oil producers, on the other hand, have an average break-even price in the range $40/b, most are currently heavily indebted and could face bankruptcy if the oil price remained this low for a sustained period of time. The resulting bankruptcies could result in a reduction in US shale oil production from the current 7.7 M b/d in 2019 to 1.5-2.5 M b/d which would allow Russia and Saudi to increase their overall market share and regain control over the market in order to once more take control of the market and succeed in driving the oil price higher to both our and their advantage.

Eroton can produce high-quality oil at $10 but the question remains what is the Nigerian government's fiscal break-even price for Nigerian oil and if/when the oil is sold at these current low levels will our paymaster, effectively the NNPC, come through with the payments to Eroton/SLE?
It is expected that this oil price war will persist until it achieves it's the aim - to inflict a substantial reduction in US shale oil production - let's hope OPEC can achieve a resolution that satisfies most of us before we all go bankrupt.

MP & QF - Congratulations, you sure got your timing right with your recent purchase of SLE shares - I was less fortunate in that I had just increased my holdings at the 28p price level but there you go as they say timing is everything. SLE must be the mother of all bargains at these price levels, it is not as though SLE will have supply chain or cash flow problems brought on by the Convid 19 pandemic, the pandemic will pass, markets will recover and with Eli Akaso coming online this year we should be able to substantially increase sales by reducing the high pipeline losses (40%) that we have in the past had to carry and with our current production costs of $10, we should be able to continue to make a profit even if oil, heaven forbid, were to fall below $25. SLE is a bargain at these price levels - buy!

MC - I remain hopeful we will keep on schedule with the ACOES as per SLE RNS of 30 Jan 2020 - thank goodness OML18 is a low-cost quality oil producer considering the fall in the current price of oil - even Shell is taking a hammering!
Eroton ACOES program is:
- All government and regulatory approvals for project construction have been received;
- February 2020: site mobilisation;
- March 2020: installation and completion of the Cawthorne 2 & 3 pig launcher and receiver platforms; and
- May 2020: completion of pipe laying, and commissioning of ACOES.

MP - MMM! wondered that myself - I'll wager OF has never even been to óur "office" in Lagos - as an aside I had a Swiss friend who recently took up a civil engineering position in Lagos - he lasted 6 weeks before resigning and returning to Switzerland - we did warn him but being recently married he still went since he needed the money!
Sle is still a buy in my book despite Eli Akaso still languishing at anchor off Tema Ghana - why I ask myself - but then why should I be informed I am only a long-suffering ordinary investor?

I believe he had recently retired, sad his PVR dream didn't come through for him - hope he didn't die destitute what with all the Irish oil sagas - R.I.P.

mc91 - Eli Akaso - Fleetmon indicates she is anchored 3 miles of Tema Ghana all rather puzzling as I did see it at Bonny Port ??

Been snooping on Eli Akaso - I see she was offshore Tema yesterday with a tug very close by. Wonder what the story is? Couldn’t find the name of the tug, whether it had assisted Eli Akaso, delivering spares or just coincidentally close by?

Roll on the new pipeline Nembe Creek is a real problem:
The firm noted that “impact on production has created revenue deficits that directly impact all the stakeholders, pointing out that between May last year and January this year alone, the NCTL, which exports Bonny Light crude oil, had been shut down more than four times owing to attacks by vandals. "Over the last four years, more than 200 shut down days have been recorded on the asset,” the firm said in November.

From Links on II
"ELI is handling both the financing and construction of the ACOES.??"
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/221221/amid-nctl-chaos-oml-18-progresses-alternative-export-route/

That's what I like to read no direct financial risk to SLE and another "believer" investor who is willing to put assets at risk on the line for the development of OML18 - what's not to like - Bring on those extra 1500 barrels - but wait who knows we could rent throughput to others when the Nimbe creek is down - Looking at the Akaso/VLCC pipeline route it seems to go directly underwater from the Akaso complex point all the way out to the FSO now that should present serious difficulties to the Niger Delta Avengers crowd.

Amazing start for the day the share price drops 2.5% I mean it wasn't as though everybody didn't know that ELI Akaso was coming?
Hope Eroton have obtained - "All government and regulatory approvals for project construction have been received;"

Hopefully, with 10% of almost nothing in the grand scale of things, SLE may just be under the radar hiding behind Eroton and we might just continue indirectly to have an income after all our backstops have been paid out and we are onto raw dividends paid via curtsy of NNPC - given the experience of international investors in such ventures as the recent aluminium smelter and with P&ID power project we, might just get lucky?
Given the history of Nigeria is there any wonder investors aren't rushing in to buy cheap "chips".

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/28/nigeria-must-clean-act-lure-hard-headed-western-investors/

A case before the High Court in London encapsulates the country’s problems. Process and Industrial Developments Limited (P&ID), entered into an agreement with the Nigerian Government back in 2010 to refine natural gas for powering Nigeria’s electricity grid over a period of 20 years. The expected 2,000MW increase in low-cost electricity would have been transformative for millions of Nigerians (and, of course, profitable for P&ID). However, the Nigerian government did not uphold its contractual commitments, and so the project fell through. After years of attempts at settlement, an arbitration tribunal ruled that the Nigerian government was liable for $6.6 billion in lost earnings to P&ID, a figure that has now increased to almost $10 billion.
What the Nigerian Government does not seem to understand is the message that is sent by all of this activity. It is all very well to attend a big investment conference in London – and the UK Government’s efforts to encourage investment in Africa is laudable - but in the end, it is not UK Ministers who will be parting with their hard-earned cash. The cold reality is that when the world’s investors note that the Nigerian Attorney-General is ripping up contracts, ignoring legal judgments, and bullying previous investors, they will think again. Past is prologue, after all.

San Leon shares are predominantly owned by institutional shareholders whose traditional investment style is that of commercial bankers i.e.– they ONLY want a participation/retention share of a particular project, never risking total ownership that could involve them in large losses.

San Leon’s shareholders, particularly the institutional shareholders, are currently facing large losses on their holdings in the company such that they will have to accept that currently, the only way of getting some return on their investment is through the company paying dividends. The share buyback is only the first part of this dividend payment program which is intended to stabilise the current share price, give current shareholders a reason to remain committed to the company and deter any takeover attempts by any entity, such as an existing major shareholder, at these abysmal share valuations.
Eventually, OML 18 will become just another 10% holding in the SLE (Tosca) oil/gas portfolio as OF moves on to his next challenge - Heaven forbid!

While we wait for the ELI Akaso to arrive in Nigeria it may be interesting to take a look at the live world map of piracy/armed robbery events that have taken place during 2019 = just zoom in and take a look at the Nigerian coast - thankfully there doesn't seem to have been any piracy of FSO/FPSO’s etc as they usually have good security with attending service boats and of course, being firmly anchored they don't make fast getaway vessels.

IMB Piracy & Armed Robbery Map 2019
This live map shows all piracy and armed robbery incidents reported to IMB Piracy Reporting Centre during 2019. If exact coordinates are not provided, estimated positions are shown based on information provided. Zoom-in and click on the pointers to view more information about individual attacks. Pointers may be superimposed on each other.
https://www.icc-ccs.org/index.php/piracy-reporting-centre/live-piracy-map/piracy-map-2019

Remember the good old days with the OF featured Davos TV interview that he made whilst attending Davos and chumming it up with what he imagined was his "peers" - looking back over the years I suppose we have to give the man some credit - let's face it many problems were not of his making such as when we were "forced out" of Poland during the struggle between the US and Russia for oil/gas supply dominance into the European market yes, I know the official story was that the geophysical rock structures were supposedly different from the US shale structures but in actuality, it was all about politics as exemplified when the US politically/physically moved to Ukraine in order to assist that country instead with the development of their oil/gas resources and in the process abandoning EU, Poland, and Germany to US LNG imports , Russian imports through Nord stream 1 and from the East streams feed supplies from central Europe who at that time were also vying to bring cheap gas to Europe - the result being that our portfolio of European leases became essentially non-viable.
Additionally, least some of us forget:
- OF saved us in Turkey from getting taken for a ride with the purchase of some "överwork" wells.
- The fractures in the new drill off west Africa was unfortunate but these things happen.
- The Morrocan south-west territorial disputes got in the way of our onshore development and the sand to oil production seemed like a good idea at the time.
- OF moved on from Ireland - which is again in difficulties over Chinese financing - OSullivan has "lost" his job and the PVR share price is currently down at 3p however OF was smart enough to move on years ago whilst keeping a non-cost shareholding in PVR to cover a "just in case" situation. - good idea which one day could come to fruition.
- OF got us out of an extreme liquidity crisis whilst we transitioned to Nigeria by persuading Tosca to stump up the funds to keep the company out of bankruptcy.
- The Nigerian negotiation/participation with Eroton for cooperation in OML18 was a strategy masterstroke in the way it was set up financially/operationally and in it's tax-structure that protect SLE interests whilst Eroton/OML18 transitioned to a more viable organisation.
- Does anybody like to continue with good news? Dare I say the stars seem to be currently aligning for the future successful operation and expansion of OML18 with Eroton/Sle cooperation, all to play for particularly at this share price level that, could prove prosperous for all genuine shareholders over the next couple of years - (now only if we weren't in Nigeria!}

Jeez, 61000 jobs lost - surely the government will look for someone to reactivate the AL smelter - all it needed was working capital - hopefully IF we did actually supply gas during the short operational life they paid for it?

Alric - Ref your comments - "Giving it one last throw of the dice" your phrase echoes my thinking over the last few weeks given the prospects for SLE going forward this indeed could be the last chance to buy the shares at this current price level of 28p, so with those thoughts in mind, even though I last rounded my holdings down with Tosca at the 55p price level - can you imagine - I have nevertheless this morning I decided to "throw the dice one more time" and decided to increased my holdings in the company BUT this is definitely the last time.
P.S Hope you have also taken advantage of these price levels, how many have you recently bought Alaric at these "Bargain" price levels or do you and your father Alblue just do positive trolling on this site on behalf of others.

99 - - Conventional thinking - olderandwiser - seems nearer the point - who is selling more to the point!

The Nigerian government's policy of increasing the production of in-country fertiliser has finally gotten around to focusing on Niger delta operator Notore. New investment from the African Export-Import Bank is being made to return the plant once more into a viable operation after years of poor maintenance and general mismanagement - let's hope this time around they pay Eroton for the gas we supply.
"It announced the commencement of the TAM of its plant, which it said was aimed at returning the plant to its 1,500MTPD and 500,000MTPA nameplate urea production capacity. It said it would also increase the reliability index of the plant from the current level of 67 per cent to 95 per cent."
Link courtesy of Links on II
https://www.energymixreport.com/notore-secures-n13-2bn-loan-for-maintenance-purposes/

Alaric - Yours at 1104 HRS - a good post - I couldn't have written a better one if I had already written it myself?

No buyers No Wonder - The market/media view and opinions displayed outside the BB goldfish bowls prove dismal reading indeed - take Microsoft Money for example - their SLE write up indicates we are still heavily into Poland and the company financial statistics to readers would surely result in the company being totally filtered out of any sane fund managers/investors purchase decision making.
Sle have a huge PR/media problem on their hands and buying of their own shares doesn't seem to be solving it either in attracting buyers or increasing the share price - the long ago and now forgotten proposed 14% dividend was warmly welcomed at the time since based on the current market interest rates it implied a possible quadrupling of the share price - let's hope that if in the future SLE ever get round to declaring an extremely attractive dividend that could just turn things around and bring in the buyers.
Meanwhile, BB goldfish bowl "insiders" await the revaluation of the share price that must come from the 40% increase in revenue from current production levels when the losses from the Nembe Creek Trunk Line are eliminated by utilising the new FSO installation and associated pipelines. The new alternative delivery pipelines would also allow Eroton to go ahead faster with the development, drilling and testing program of new wells which had previously been held up by the intermittent availability of the Nembe Creek Trunkline. All to play for.