Member Info for BlackSwan

“Nigerian output posted a 40,000bpd decline, the survey found, with lower exports than in March. Force majeure remains in place on the Bonny Light export stream,” OPEC stated.

Alaric - please get up to speed your western Africa comment was relative to last week's discussions and the $750 Mio loan is dependent on proof of concept being formalised for offloading oil to the FSO - the rest of your back to school/cricket field comments are irrelevant.-

Alaric - you make the point "is out of san Leon's hands" and in Nigeria, it always will be the case - the saviour for OML18 is the potential loan from the Africa export-import bank but consider this once this cash is on the table the "locals" will then no longer need SLE since they have a far larger cash pie to divide up amongst themselves - on the other hand, if in the case SLE is successful in completing the transaction we will as a larger shareholder of an OML18 operation have to carry the burden of repaying the large $750 Mio bank loan - the locals in their usual way can just "refuse" to pay as they have done on previous projects in the Niger delta (Millenium Oza) whereas SLE can be pursued through the courts.
As an aside ref your comments on the hi-tech security available to pipelines - it would seem we don't need it as we have laid zero pipelines to date to the FSO and even as yet don't have approval for the use of barges to the FSO - I certainly would like to see the stats on just how much if any oil OML18 has produced over this last year given the current pipeline "disturbances"?

cd27idw - Following the latest SLE RNS it would seem 2027 might be a realistic time scale for suspension. !!**??

It would seem absolutely nothing has been done to bring this FOS to completion during the last two years and although having previously stated we have all the Nigerian approvals it seems as I suspected these have possibly expired if we ever had them. Jeez

Proposed Eroton Debt Facilities remain subject to, amongst other matters, definitive documentation and ELI successfully demonstrating the barging of oil to the floating storage and offloading vessel ("FSO") through part of the Alternative Crude Oil Evacuation System ("ACOES") project, to the off-taker's satisfaction which is expected to be met in May 2022, following receipt of the necessary Nigerian regulatory maritime approvals.

Extension - I guess we all knew that - Alaric?
"Further to the Company's announcement on 28 February 2022, the Company now currently expects to publish an AIM admission document (the "Admission Document") in respect of the Potential Transaction by 24 June 2022 at the latest, following which point the Company will seek the restoration of trading of its ordinary shares on AIM."

Who would have thought it ,OF may be ahead of the game, although he isn't aware of it yet as Europe looks to Nigeria for oil/gas supplies - even the planned Nigal pipeline starts in Port Harcourt, I exagerate of course, now if only OF can keep the shares suspended until 2027 we maybe in the money.
https://www.statista.com/chart/27282/africa-an-alternative-to-russian-gas/
Extract from Statista below:
"As our infographic shows, the continent's largest natural gas exporters by far are Algeria and Nigeria, each with between 35,000 and 40,000 million cubic meters shipped abroad in 2020 (ranked 7th and 8th globally). Last year, these countries were the only two African suppliers of gas to the European Union, accounting for 17 and 4 percent of the EU's natural gas imports, respectively. The other major players in the region are Egypt, Libya, Equatorial Guinea, and Angola. While countries in sub-Saharan Africa have gas reserves, they have not had the interest from abroad and investment needed for the industry to open up access to Europe, according to Al Jazeera."

AR Good find - Europe/Nigeria - At last Europe woke up to the Nigerian geographical/political unobstructed route to supply EU gas - thought it would never happen! Eu is used to giving money away to "lesser" EU states that don't even comply with EU dictates so OF might find political/financial backing to support SLE in Nigeria although I am not holding my breath on that one. We need the Nigerian military to clamp down on the "mini oil refineries" that are processing stolen pipeline oil throughout the NIger Delta - let's hope Buhari gets behind the problem for Nigeria and SLE's sake.

Further thoughts we could limit our exposure to Nigeria and meanwhile relook at our Alabanian asset (last time I looked we still had) as it sits on or near to the incoming Turkish/Italy/Euro pipeline, our Albanian asset has the potential to become increasingly valuable now that Europe has "fallen out" with the Russian sources and Europe is desperately seeking alternative supplies of gas and oil - think Eastern Med /Israel/Egypt/Cyprus/Turkey linked into the European eastern feed pipelines.

We could take the 100m and stay small in the OML18 scale of things - your falling into the trap that has kept me invested I.E. the oil is there in quantity all we have to do is aggressively get in and get it out - which as Dcklar are finding out is easier said than done. - we could hang on to the FSO and wait for Eroton to connect - I assume Eroton would be interested given the ongoing problems in getting the product to the export terminal at Bonny?

Where is the money - It was noticeable that pre-Decklar - Millenium had large outstanding debts from their last attempts to develop Oza and OF was well aware of them hence his original holding back in investing in OZA - which he has since rescinded. Eroton also has outstanding debts hence the attempt at refinancing through the Afrimaxbank - just a thought, do we SLE shareholders want to even own 80% of such a company in the case that the transaction/financing deal goes through and we have to repay it somehow with near-zero oil income from OML18 - I am getting the impression OF is out of his depth, as I was afraid he would when we first entered West Africa - relying on you here Alaric to come out with some positive thoughts even if they are obvious to everybody it would brighten the mood I am sure.
April - probably the best OF can do is put SLE into another suspension - what are the suspension limits for a share on the AIM - the question has been asked several times before on this board but I don't recollect a definite answer?
https://punchng.com/aiteo-owes-shell-banks-1-7bn-report/

Alaric thanks, once again you confirm my point we need the new pipeline Now - theoretical and I am guessing here it should be submerged for 90% of its length giving it some protection against vandals?

Sam Yes, RNS of Feb this year states we should be entitled to receive as a minimum :
" As of 28 February 2022, the Extended Conditional Payment Waiver relates to US$101.5 million, being a principal amount due of US$82.2 million and total accrued interest due of US$19.3 million, which will be payable 90 days after such expiry, save for, inter alia, if there is an event of default."
Roll on End of April 2022 - ever hopeful!

Sam - Yes I remember the meter reading dramas and yes it's always nice to get something back although I can't recall seeing credits in any accounts, as you say we need to get Eli Akaso connected NOW it's been 2 years and still no pipeline connections - OF did "hint" that SLE was making some attempts to use barges for loading from OML18 - but I am not sure whether I believe him that it was ever a regular ongoing flow of oil out of OML18 onto the FSO - sure would like to see some stats on the volumes he claims we have loaded.

Alaric - Thanks for taking the time to reply to my post and you complimenting me on being a master disassembler a position way above my capabilities. The good news is that the Nigerian authorities seem determined to tackle the problem of pipeline/oil theft in the national economy. I realise you have a mental block on the reality of what is actually delaying the development of OML18 and indeed for other projects in Nigeria's oil industry so here it is again I extract a comment in the case you haven't time to actually read the news item posted below:
"We want to ensure that everybody is involved so that ultimately we are able to get back this industry or otherwise this industry will collapse in our hands and if it does, we will not be talking about employment and this is the reality we are facing today".
https://punchng.com/kyari-mobilises-nupeng-others-to-tackle-oil-theft/

Alaric Thanks for your latest post - exactly you make my point!

Wouldn't it be nice to receive further confirmation that this is financing is proceeding maybe in the next RNS, having said that I can't find any mention of it on the Afrimaxbanm website even though it is for a value of $700 Mio - syndicated loans maybe don't show up? https://www.afreximbank.com/?s=Nigeria+#news
Reference SLE's recent RNS extract:
"San Leon has recently been provided with updates on the progress of the funding for the Proposed Eroton Transaction, which includes Eroton having received a term sheet in relation to a reserve-based lending facility, totalling US$750,000,000 (the "Proposed Eroton Debt Facilities"), which is proposed to be lent by a financing syndicate led by African Export-Import Bank."

Sam - "Eli Akaso is in the running" wishful thinking on your part I am afraid - there is any number of operational FSOs along that section of the coast - would you choose one that isn't as yet operational - take your pick from of those in the OML11/Port Harcourt area from the list below:
https://www.maritime-database.com/port.php?pid=2960

OK, some of you will be glad to read that this is definitely my last posting on this subject - NNPC our major partner in OML18 can control cash flows, one would have thought they were squeaky clean, but apparently not. - Punch Newspaper again.
https://punchng.com/reps-write-kyari-summon-17-nnpc-subsidiaries-over-audit-queries/

Amazing - I had an idea that there were "problems" on the pipeline systems as OF informed us OML18 expansion was on hold over a year ago now - Punch 22/03/2022 extract:
"Nigeria’s oil production quota as approved by OPEC is pegged at about 1.8 million barrels per day but in the last few years the country has struggled between 1.3 and 1.4 million barrels per day. Elumelu had said, “How can we be losing over 95 per cent of oil production to thieves? Look at the Bonny Terminal that should be receiving over 200,000 barrels of crude oil daily, instead, it receives less than 3,000 barrels, leading the operator @Shell to declare force majeure.” Also, the former Chief Executive Officer of Seplat Energy Plc, Austin Avuru, stated last week that up to 80 per cent of oil pumped in Nigeria, particularly in the East, was stolen.