RE: Summary of position29 Apr 2019 10:04
.......The proposed 2020's bigger outdoor crop is when it will all start to get very interesting and you will not be able to but HNR at 8.65 p then!
It has been disappointing the lack of oil related news over the first 4 months of 2020. I was also expecting a deal in Kansas but the use of gas for agriculture has perhaps changes the Kansas play permanently. The N2H2 gas mix is more valuable than N2 and Robert Price always has the long game in mind.
The idea than DTU is dead is I think mistaken but the language used in early 2018 was perhaps too positive. However, we do not know how close they may have got to a deal, and indeed whether they are close now.
They are still gathering patents on DTU which suggests to me they still see it as very valuable.
What I regularly ask myself with stocks is, imagining I was not invested in any of them, which would I go for RIGHT NOW, looking at 90 day and 180 day returns, from NOW.
HNR, from now, 90 days, 1st indoor crop done and processing/processed, 2nd indoor crop well on the way, outdoor crop, well on the way, 8 ED still producing and then all the unknowable... new ED wells, WD wells, Kansas deal, new water deals, even DTU CO2 (I leave Helios to 2020... they are not, repeat NOT maintaining the leases for a laugh). So, 90 days... +50%...+100%.... will not be at 8.65p.
180 day 2nd crop done, 3rd indoor crop nearing harvest. Outdoor crop revenue in and Zoetic covered or nearly covered initial outlay. Further equipment purchases perhaps... If crops successful, then SP over 20p and I may be way out, but I think you might be looking a lot further north. What else could have come in in 180 days. well who the hell knows but some on here may NOT be moaning about RP taking a bonus. We shall see.
The company report and accounts are being prepared and shall be out soon so you can feast your eyes on that shortly. I hope this has been of interest. There has been some concern that too many operators will/are getting into the CBD business. This is a concern but I think the swift move to Zoetic AND the organic compliance should keep us above the scrum. The potential demand does look very high, so I hope there is plenty of scope in the market.... and we have the gas mix to sell to other growers in the ORGANIC space.
So you see, if I was buying now, I WOULD buy HNR. I have had about another 100,000 at placing price and if other things happen right I am targeting another 200,000. I may not get them but we shall see. The SP could easily dawdle here for another month but then again it might not.... we cannot know.
THAT was pretty much what I posted on Saturday morning. I would like to add that if there is another drought this year in the Powder River Basin and water becomes a big issue in fracking operations then the possibility of options relating to our Helios wells and de-watering the Muddy formation may take steps forward in a way we have not yet seen. But this is something for the future...