Member Info for BlackBat17

I am new to this share and it looks interesting, but what I do not understand is this:

If the potential resources are so good, why have White Flame sold a controlling interest of their company for less than £1.5 million?

Is this the start of a run up to Uraquay approval of the farm in?

...but volume pitifully low - I mean who bothers to buy £1 worth of shares?

When can we roughly expect the next piece of news? And what is it expected to be?

The Uruguayan government must be about to approve the Chevron farming and the news is leaking out.

I can't think what else would be driving the share price up right now.

They are quite a few hours behind us so we may even see an RNS this afternoon when their government offices open for business.

According to Interactive Investor, fair value is 0.1049p.

Maybe an RNS on the way?

I predict a placing in Aug of 1 billion shares at 0.05p to raise £500,000 (based on previous placing timing and amount raised).

Nice to see the competent persons report on PEL29 again - but ADAIK GBP does not own that licence anymore.

Millions of shares bought yesterday and this afternoon (the 'unknowns' are going for same price as 'buys') and price barely moves...

Maybe these trades are all from same buyer dealing in 500,000 at a time to stop the share price going up?

Loads of 500,000 share trades today, all adding up to 90 million (so far) volume.

Wonder if Uraguay are going to announce approval of the Chevron deal today?

I am guessing they are at least 5 hours behind us, so any announcement would not be for a few hours yet.

Fingers crossed!

Any idea why?

"CEG shares are up very modestly on this deal, done at a 20% premium as I said but if ever there was a ten-bagger staring you in the face then this is it, ignore taking shares at 0.14p at your peril, it could well be a eureka moment right in front of your very eyes…"

https://www.malcysblog.com/2024/04/oil-price-challenger-petrofac-i3-and-finally/

Should we be worried about this?

Https://www.malcysblog.com/2024/04/the-bucket-list/

Just listening to Malky’s blog interview with a CEG.

Interesting bit for me was that, in terms of Off-3, he says they're going to do the same process as they did for Off-1 one, in terms of reprocessing the seismic etc. which could take another year. But he also something like: “but who is to say someone might just swoop in and make us an offer for Off-3 pre-seismic reprocessing. There is a lot of FOMO out there in oil companies who missed out on Uruguay”.

Fingers crossed!

CEG's potential reserves in Uraquay are so great - will they attract a soverign wealth fund (even wealthy individuals) to invest?

Here are a few instances of sovereign wealth funds investing in oil companies with unproven reserves:

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Encino Acquisition Partners: In 2018, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) announced a significant investment in Encino Acquisition Partners, a U.S.-based oil and gas company. Encino focused on acquiring and developing oil and gas properties, including those with potential reserves that were yet to be fully proven.

China Investment Corporation (CIC) and Energy Exploration & Exploitation: In 2017, China Investment Corporation (CIC) acquired a 45% stake in Energy Exploration & Exploitation (E2), an Australian company engaged in oil and gas exploration. E2 focused on developing assets with significant resource potential, including those with unproven reserves.

GIC Private Limited and Sanchez Energy Corporation: In 2014, GIC Private Limited, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, invested in Sanchez Energy Corporation, a U.S.-based oil and gas company. Sanchez Energy focused on the exploration and development of unconventional oil resources, which often involve unproven reserves

Trying to get an actual share value given the size of the prospects as detailed in the March presentation.

I have calculated the total value of the oil in the ground to be worth $45.6 billion.

Obviously we cannot get it all out of the ground in a year - lets assume it will take 20 years to extract all of the oil.

Now, we'll calculate the annual extraction rate:

Total oil in the ground = $45.6 billion

Years to extract = 20

Annual extraction = Total oil / Years to extract

= $45.6 billion / 20

= $2.28 billion per year

Next, we divide the annual extraction by the number of shares to find the value per share:

Number of shares = 10,000,000,000

Value per share = Annual extraction / Number of shares

= $2.28 billion / 10,000,000,000

= $0.228 per share

= £0.18 per share

So combined with CEGs estimate of 0.59p per share

Share value should be 0.77p

Lets assume PE ration of 10 - then share price, once production gets going = 7.7p

Any thoughts?

Hiere's an updated calculation of what share price could be if they get the same terms for Area Off-3 as they did for Area Off-1:

Area Off-1

Prospect Teru Teru Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,647/547/158

Propect Anapero Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,627/445/88

Propect Lenteia Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,666/198/17

Gross Total P50 = 1,190 million barrels = $95 billion

AREA OFF-3 bloc

Prospect Amalia, comes with a gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 (ANCAP) of 2,189, 980, and 392 - 25% of this prospect in in Area Off-3

Prospect Morpheus entails a gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 (ANCAP) of 8.96, 2.69, and 0.84, respectively. This prospect is entirely contained with AREA OFF-3.

Gross Total P50 = Amalia (at 25%) 245 + Morpheus 2.69 = 247.69 million barrels = $19 billion

Two Block Overall Total = $114 billion

Apply 40% share of profits = $45.6 billion

Value per share = $4.56 = £3.58