Sintana best to worst case valuation scenarios29 Oct 2025 12:17
ok here is a back of a *** packet estimate of how much sintana may be worth:
assumptions:
• oil price ≈ usd 70 per barrel (in real terms).
• sintana’s share of recoverable oil in its blocks: assume for pel 83 (where some data exists) ~3 billion barrels recoverable ooip with some recovery factor and its ~5% share giving ~150 million barrels oil (just for pel 83 in this scenario).
• development costs etc reduce netback to say usd 30–40 per barrel after costs, royalties etc.
• probability that discovered, appraised, and brought to production is maybe 30–50% depending on block.
• discount rate for cash flows somewhat high (say 10-15%) because of frontier risk.
calculate for pel 83:
• sintana’s net share: ~150 million barrels (as above).
• net revenue per barrel (after costs): say usd 35. → gross ≈ 150 million × 35 = usd 5.25 billion if fully successful.
• multiply by probability of success (say 0.4) → ~ usd 2.1 billion expected value.
• discount to present value (if production in, say, 5-10 years) maybe divide by ~ (1.1)^7 = ~0.51 → net present value ~ usd 1.1 billion.
then do similar for pel 79, pel 82, angola kon-16 etc. for example, pel 79 is more speculative and the area may yield less or more, but let's conservatively estimate that sintana’s share of recoverable is smaller or probability is lower, maybe an expected value of usd 200-500 million. the angola block given its small effective interest and early stage might add maybe usd 20-100 million in expected value.
summing up pel 83 (~$1.1b), pel 82 and pel 79 combined (~$300-600m), angola kon-16 (~$50-100m), others maybe minor. so total portfolio might have an expected present value in the ballpark of usd 1.5-2.0 billion under medium risk/price assumptions.
then you’d subtract future capital needed, exploration costs, overhead, etc. also adjust for dilution, taxes, etc.
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how that compares with current market value / share price
• one of the analysts (auctus advisors, via foucaud) has given a per-share “unrisked nav” for portions of sintana (pel 83, pel 90 etc.) and deduced that there is significant upside from current share price.
• for example, foucaud values mopane discovery’s portion of sintana at ~usd 160 million.
so my rough $1.5-2.0b is in line with a scenario in which multiple blocks succeed, but it is ambitious. if you assume higher risk, or lower oil prices, or delays, the valuation might be much lower (e.g. a few hundred million usd).
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bottom line: possible valuation ranges & conclusion
putting it all together:
• low case (many exploration failures, lower oil price, high costs): maybe usd 200-500 million.
• medium case (some successful discoveries, moderate price, reasonable costs): usd 1-2 billion.
• high case (multiple big discoveries, favourable prices, smooth development): maybe usd 2-4 billion+.
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