Member Info for BlackBat17

Https://cegplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/CEG-Uruguay-Deck-March-2024-FINAL60.pdf

Hi bilbobagholder,

Buy that do you mean the MMs have a large order to fill?

Hiere's an updated calculation of what share price could be if they get the same terms for Area Off-3 as they did for Area Off-1:

Area Off-1

Prospect Teru Teru Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,647/547/158

Propect Anapero Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,627/445/88

Propect Lenteia Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,666/198/17

Gross Total P50 = 1,190 million barrels = $95 billion

AREA OFF-3 bloc

Prospect Amalia, comes with a gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 (ANCAP) of 2,189, 980, and 392 - 25% of this prospect in in Area Off-3

Prospect Morpheus entails a gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 (ANCAP) of 8.96, 2.69, and 0.84, respectively. This prospect is entirely contained with AREA OFF-3.

Gross Total P50 = Amalia (at 25%) 245 + Morpheus 2.69 = 247.69 million barrels = $19 billion

Two Block Overall Total = $114 billion

Apply 40% share of profits = $45.6 billion

Value per share = $4.56 = £3.58

Or 1,790 times the current share value...

Not quite better than Bitcoin, but not bad!

As a poster on another board has observed, the 'free carry' of 40% that Chevron has given to CEG is (possiblly) unprecedented. I was expecting 10 to 20%. This shows that they were desparate to get it.

Which also suggests we should be expecting some similar news for OFF-Area3 where we have (P50 estimates, which are mid-range, most realistic estimate) another 500,000,000 barrels of oil :

AREA OFF-3 bloc

Amalia, comes with a gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 (ANCAP) of 2,189, 980, and 392 - 25% of this prospect in in Area Off-3

Morpheus entails a gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 (ANCAP) of 8.96, 2.69, and 0.84, respectively. This prospect is entirely contained with AREA OFF-3.

Total P50 = Amalia (at 25%) 245 + Morpheus 2.69 = 247.69 million barrels = $19 billion x 40% = $7.6 BILLION!

Incredible furture share price potential for anyone who loads up in the next few days!

From the RNS:

Chevron will acquire a 60% participating interest in the AREA OFF-1 block, and will assume operatorship of the block.

CEG Uruguay will retain a 40% non-operating interest in the block.

All estimates below are EUR mmbbl, gross (millions of barrels)

Using the P50 estimate in my figures as this represents the best estimate or the most likely scenario for the amount of recoverable oil or gas.

Current price of oil is $80 per barrel

Area Off-1

Prospect Teru Teru Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,647/547/158

Propect Anapero Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,627/445/88

Propect Lenteia Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,666/198/17

Total P50 = 1,190 million barrels = $95 billion

40% of $95 billion = $38 billion

So each share = $3.8 or £3

Yes, you read that right - each CEG share has a potential value of £3!!!

I am guessing it was a buy

35,000,000 in last hour or so...

Https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/3-ftse-aim-oil-shares-to-watch-in-q3-2023-ceg-boil-angs/

Quite a few buys suddenly coming in - similar to last Friday.

Presumably FOMOs.

Estimates of recoverable resource

Note:

All estimates are EUR mmbbl, gross (millions of barrels)

Using the P50 estimate in my figures as this represents the best estimate or the most likely scenario for the amount of recoverable oil or gas.

Current price of oil is $80 per barrel

Area Off-1

Prospect Teru Teru Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,647/547/158

Propect Anapero Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,627/445/88

Propect Lenteia Gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 1,666/198/17

Total P50 = 1,190 million barrels = $95 billion (had to double-check this figure!)

AREA OFF-3 bloc

Amalia, comes with a gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 (ANCAP) of 2,189, 980, and 392 - 25% of this prospect in in Area Off-3

Morpheus entails a gross resource estimate: P10/50/90 (ANCAP) of 8.96, 2.69, and 0.84, respectively. This prospect is entirely contained with AREA OFF-3.

Total P50 = Amalia (at 25%) 245 + Morpheus 2.69 = 247.69 million barrels = $19 billion

Grand total = $114 billion dollars...

I know that if we got a farm in, we would only receive maybe 10 to 20% of this figure, but that still is in the range $11 to $22 BILLION....

If we go for a mid range figure of $15 billion, that would make the current share price = $1.5 or £1.20...

Note: This assumes all of $15 billon is profit.

Mind blowing figures!!!

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-giants-place-tentative-bets-oil-finds-wildcat-uruguay-2023-09-19/

Note this extract:

"Shell, Argentina's YPF (YPFD.BA), and Houston-based APA Corp (APA.O), are among the companies awarded licenses. Ancap estimates the potential oil and gas in place is around 20 billion barrels."

"TotalEnergies and Shell’s 2022 discovery of 11 billion barrels’ worth of oil off the coast of Namibia was a “plot twist” for Uruguay, says Santiago Ferro, energy transition manager at state-owned energy company Ancap. Millions of years ago the two countries were connected, and their basins have similar geological characteristics which increases the likelihood of deposits in the Latin American country."

Other energy majors that had left Uruguay may return via farm-ins, argues Mr Ferro (energy transition manager at state-owned energy company Ancap), and Challenger is already in talks to bring in other firms...

Interesting.... I'm assuming it was a buy.

No message

If anyone can explain what is happening with the 68.5 million shares, I would be grateful....

Oh yes, and 68 million buy at around 9am...

Two 5 million buys within 5 mins of each other.

Albeit from a low base....

Traditionally thought to herald an incoming RNS...

Who would know, and why they would bother alerting everyone else is beyond me!