Member Info for Billyboy2fromiii

Bushy,

You were way out and you know it.

BB2.

Bushy,

42m oz for Q3, lol!

How accurate were you in your wild guesses for Q2 production and FCF?

How accurate was my forecast for production (based upon attending and asking wuestions at AGM)?

I suggest you buy a mattress protector for your bed, it may come in handy.

BB2

Lucky, I thought we had had the conversation that 2023 will not be 130k oz (and thus as such AISC will not be as low as low as 1300/50. Even if Kou do beat 30k oz the resulting H2 AISC will be a lot higher that projected yearly AISC for Kou. Adding that to the full year AISC for Yan, I think you are well way too low for group AISC for 23.

BB2

Lucky, my comments as especially regarding Q3 it may also apply to Q4. Getting to nameplate capacity will be great but will he be mining the higher grade in Q4, I do not know that for sure. I do think Q4 at Yan will be difficult as well as Q4. Any FCF for Q3 and Q4 will be much needed to cover debt and the remaining Kou significant build costs. That is why I am cautiously optimistic short term but very optimistic for 2024/5.

Hopefully, I will be pleasantly surprised short term but I do think there will some shocked when Q3 (poss Q4) position is confirmed.

Lucky, I do hold nearly 1 m shares so I am not negative but imo realistic.

So, do you agree with me that Bushy’s 30m FCF for Q3 alone is silly, ludicrous, ridiculous (take your pick).

BB2

Bushy,

Realistically, Yan will produce probably between 15-20 k oz for Q3 (and similar for Q4).

Realistically, Kou will possibly produce between 10-15 k oz for Q3 ( and possibly 15-20 k oz).

The AISC for approx 17.5 k oz at Yan will be significantly higher than Q2 and will produce some FCF but much less that Q2.

The AISC for even the higher 15 k oz at Kou will probably mean a loss for Q3.

So FCF for Q3 will almost certainly be lower that Q2. So please justify your 30m FCF guess.

As I say, Q3 (and Q4) are going to be tricky. Debt repayments on the two larger loans start Q3 and I believe there is $20m (?) of Kou costs still to pay. On that badis, I think Q3 (and 4) are going to be difficult financially.

I believe one of the short term loans was due to be repaid in Q2 but another is still due to be repaid along with the two larger loans.

In fact, at the AGM the word refinancing was actually used. Now why would that word have been used if (as you believe) HUM was going to be awash with cash from as early as Q3.

Do not get me wrong, I am very positive for HUM for 2024/5 but I believe there will be a few beds wet between now and 2024. The question is, will one of those wet beds be Bushy’s bed when reality see in ?

BB2

A typical reply from you.

Please state what production and thus revenue you are expecting in order to justify your silly guess of 30m FCF for Q3.

BB2

A reasonable question to ask.

Bushy,

What are you going on about? Please explain where your figures are coming from. Q2 has passed. Production for Q3 at Yan is likely to me much lower with resulting significantly higher resulting AISC with resulting lower FCF. Production from Kou is going to be limited (H2 loss only 30k) with resulting hugh AISC with resulting limited FCF.

So how on earth do you get your FCF.

Once again, I am not being negative but realistic. My biggest take after attending the AGM (and asking questions) was that Q3 and 4 (to a lower degree) were going to be tight. As stated previously, I am positive for HUM but think we need a bit more patience.

BB2

Bushy,

That is an outrageous guess even by your very poor standards. Wean you please explain where exactly you have plucked that figure from. In my view, there is no way you can even get close to justifying such a ridiculous comment, but please have a go. I personally think Q3 is going to be very tricky. Are we even going to see FCF of 30m for H2 ? You ludicrous comments on here are helping no one. Please stop.

Bushy,

You have proved, with your ridiculous inaccurate guesses, that you know nothing about HUM. Way out with your production guess, earnings guess and cash pile guess. Equally, I suggest you know nothing about JLP. So why do you bother to comment on here?

BB2

Afternoon Bushy,

Interesting to reread our recent posts regarding HUM....

Perhaps you do not know quite as much as you think you do.........

$20m cash !

LOL!!!

BB2

BPat,

I am very positive as regards HUM over the next 6-24 mons. However, there is NO chance HUM will be net cash positive next year.

BB2

Milner, in addition. Exactly what FCF Si you expect in Q3/4 23. With the reduced figures from Yan for H2 and initial 30k from Kou will have significant AISC and severely restrict FCF for the next 6 months. You debt free by mid/end 24 suggestion is ridiculous and indicates that you know nothing about HUM.

Milner.

That is totally incorrect. The two large loans have a four year pay back period starting Q3 2023. In addition, there is $20m of deferred payments currently outstanding. There are short term loans and overdraft. There are payments to Govt’s for their % of projects. Besides that, there will hopefully be exploration costs at both Yan and Kou.

There is no way HUM will be debt free anywhere near end 2024.

BB2.

BH,

A great post that. Very realistic thoughts.

LL,

No worries. I think the clue is in the AISC for Yan for full year.

LL, where are you getting 130k from? 80-90 plus 30 equals 110-120.

Harry,

All as projected within 2023 guidance. If you read all of this years RNSs it is all in there. No surprise at all. Believe the RNS issued by HUM rather than the rampers on here.

LL,

Solid Q2. However, Yan will not be 100k this year. Guidance 80-90k. Have a look at projected AISC for year. That is the clue to H2 production being much lower than H1.

A solid update though and very much as I was expecting.

Gold_Investor,

Grow up!

The will be no (or VERY little) production from Kou for Q2 23.

In addition, Yan will be less than Q1. I am expecting 22-24k from Yan for Q2.

The prospects here are very good. There is no need for your blatant ramping which will probably lead to disappointment, for anyone that listens to your ramping, tomorrow.

BB2.

Lucky,

Yan is going to be a smaller operation going forward so your 100k is too optimistic. Not being negative (as hols a lot of shares) but realistic.

Tuesday will be interesting as I am not expecting as much for Q2 as some on here. The notice of trading update is certainly encouraging though….

BB2