Member Info for Billyboy2fromiii

Lucky,

Can we please be civil and discuss.

However, I am, struggling to see what you are going on about. The H1 EBITDA of $31m has already been received in H1 and been spend as at the end of Q2. It is not sat there waiting to be used for debt/debit payment, it has gone. Not sure what the other $15m that you mention is? If it is the $15m that ID mentioned earlier, then that has already been drawn (from the look of Q2 update) and again is not sat there, that has gone too.

BB2

Lucky,

Please keep up.

The first part of that rant is exactly what I explained to ID, so your comment “as suspected” makes you look a bit silly.

As for the second part. The Co have stated deleveraging in H2 which is the period July to Dec. My comments are specifically for Q3 which is July to September when Yan will have lower production and before Kou fully ramps up (which the Co have stated Q4 as opposed to Q3 (not saying they will not beat that target though).

By the way, it is debt not debit. Is that your predictive text or is it you specifically saying debit rather that debt?

BB2

Nothing specifically to add about HUM then?

That should read in Q1 update…

Lucky,

ID has got that wrong. That statement was in the Q2 update and (from the look of Q2 update) it appears this was fully drawn during Q2. It appears all finance has been fully drawn as at end of Q2. However, I think the first one year loan has been repaid before end Q2 (I asked if it was due before 30th June at the AGM).

Bonker,

Perhaps you could give your opinion on my thoughts rather than just your usual scuff…. Don’t worry as it will be alright on the night as gold is going to explode”

Some actual comments regarding HUM would be more useful. If you do not agree with me then state why, rather than your usual…

ID,

That $15m extra debt was stated after Q1 update with the intention to drawdown in Q2, which from the look of the Q2 update they indeed did. So, as far as I can see gross debt available has been fully drawn and is included with the gross/net debt figure stated in Q2 update. I do believe but not certain that the first one year loan will have been fully repaid however as this was due before 30th June (as per Co accounts). So at this time debt will not rise to $137m unless additional lending is needed.

BB2

That should read steady production not streaky… and $122m debt not $132m debt.

Anon3,

You seem to have a good understanding of HUM where Lucky seems misinformed and Bushy clearly knows nothing.

Interested in your comments on my thoughts.

I have a EV when Kou has shown steady production for a few months of $400m and Yan also in streaky (but lower) production.Making a sp of approx 37p at $132m debt but adding g 16p as net debt reduces to zero to total 53p.

However, I do not believe we have seen peak net debt, that will probably be Q3. I do not believe (re Canacord research as opposed to HUM actual statement) that net debt will be zero by end 24.

I see Q3 being a problem. Even allowing for 19k production in Q3, I have Q3 AISC no lower than $1,550 but could be as high as $1,800 which gives FCF between $3 and $8 from Yan. Obviously cannot be confident with any figures at Kou for Q3, pure guesswork but a probable Quarter loss.

I believe that the $15m remaining debt stated in Q1 update has been fully drawn and the first one year loan fully repaid (full repayment was due before 30th June I believe).

First repayment of the two four year loans are due in Q3. There may be just sufficient existing cash, gold and Q3 FCF ($3-$8m) to see us through to Q4 but equally there may not. Additional short term lending (possible additional small placing but hopefully very unlikely) is a also a possibility.

In my view, Q3 is going to be very, very tight and am expecting a few wet beds in October.

Obviously, this is based on current gold price and also the current unknown Q3 for Kou.

So, patience is very much still required. More short term pain may be required for genuine holders in order to see the medium to long term potential large capital (and future possible dividends).

Interested in your thoughts?

BB2.

Ricky,

Please can you tell me which page in the June Presentation it forecasts zero net debt by end of 2024.

I have relooked at the Presentation and cannot see that. Personally, I think that is far too ambitious (using todays gold price). Would be very happy to be proved wrong though. Please confirm which page of Presentation this is forecast, so that I can check again.

BB2.

Jammin,

Gross debt will be loans and overdraft

Net debt will be loans and overdraft less cash at bank (plus gold inventory).

Outstanding bills will be in the accounts under liabilities but that is not gross/net debt.

BB2

Lucky,

Are you sure you understand? I don’t think you do.

The existing quoted debt (all three loans and I assume some overdraft) along with existing (including the equity raise) have been used to pay for the build costs that have so far been paid. However, there are some build costs (up to $20m as per RNS) that have not been paid yet. These outstanding (deferred) build costs have not been paid yet and as such are not included within the existing quoted gross/net debt figure within RNS. They will be paid from using any remaining undrawn overdraft (debt) which will increase gross debt or from potential positive cash flows in Q3/4 of early 2024. Bottom line though is that there is up to $20m of additional costs for Kou that is still outstanding and not yet paid and not yet included within gross/net debt figure within RNS.which part of that do you not agree with?

Also are you sure you understand the statement re AISC, I do not think you do. Keeping things simple, if AISC for H1 is already roughly $1,200 and the guidance for 2023 is “under $1,500” then very roughly H2 could come in at very roughly $1,800 to make the total Year AISC of “under $1,500.

I am not saying Q3/4 will actually be $1,800. What I saying is for 2023 to be “under $1,500 then H2 could be significantly more that $1,500 and still achieve a 2023 figure of “under $1,500 (taking account of the significantly lower H1 figure). Which part of that do you not understand? Your comments seem to be suggesting that H2 will come in under $1,500 which is NOT what guidance is saying.

BB2

Lucky,

Tanks for pointing out my poor grammar. Perhaps your could also refer to debt as debt rather than debit..

My point is (and what I believe you are not getting) is that the “on time and on budget” built cost has been paid for mostly by existing cash and debt but there is sum of $20m still outstanding to be paid which will be paid for once Kou is in full production (not yet). This $20m is not included within existing gross/net debt figures as it is as yet unpaid. This amount will need to be paid from operating profits when Kou fully operational alongside existing debt repayments before there is capital available to accelerate (make additional) debt repayments.

For the record, I am not concerned regarding HUM in 6/9 months time. However, I do believe that others believe that HUM is already (next 3-6mths) a cash machine, which it is not. People (like Bushy) over ramping things and your quoted over optimism may well lead to over expectation and subsequent disappointment. Q2 being an example. People’s expectations were too high and a good solid Q2 RNS led to the sp falling.

Happy to agree to disagree on this. We are both looking for medium term gains here. Personally, I hope to see a dividend return (plus significant capital growth). However, I am certainly not expecting a dividend until a significant amount of debt has been repaid, so perhaps approx 2026/7.

As I said, it is good to debate and differing (realistic) views are good to debate.

Ricky,

Thank you for reference. I will have another look at that. Seems very ambitious but great if true. Hopefully, 2024/5 we will be rewarded for our patience.

BB2

Lucky,

This was in the Q1 production update RNS…..

o c.US$20 million contractor deferrals, retention incentives and working capital not expected to be paid until Kouroussa is in full production

So $20m of Kou build costs to be paid once Kou is in full production. That is what I was referring to.

BB2

Lucky,

Why exactly would I want to deramp when I hold close to 1m shares?

I believe that I am being realistic with my expectations and was questioning you to which you have stated you were actually being optimistic.

Anyone that buys or sells based upon our conversation is very silly.

Has it not been stated that there will be $ to pay for Kou build after Q2? I believe this will be paid from Q4 at earliest but also from 2024.

BB2

Lucky,

Ok, fair enough.

Obviously the POG is an unknown and I am just basing my own expectations on approx $1950. I do hope to see a higher POG going forward but equally funny things happen so I prefer not to get carried away.

My concern is that we may have deferred Kou build costs to pay as we enter 2024 which may need to be paid before we see any potential for accelerated debt reduction.

Good to debate though do thank you for reply.

BB2

Bushy,

Are you honestly expecting to see record EBITDA in Q3 or is this another of you ramping guesses. If you are really expecting it then please detail your working. At least that would give other a chance to digest your expectations.

I am very surprised that you have 5 tick ups with that comment.

Very happy to discuss with you in a civilised manner.

BB2

Hi Lucky,

I am away presently but will get a chance to reply to your points made on Sunday a bit later.

Regarding your comments today, do you really believe HUM would be able to repay debt in little over a year?

Genuine question as at the AGM it was stated that they may look to refinance all the debt (the short term loan along with the two four year loans).

I think you may be expecting a bit much but very happy to see your profit expectations going forward.

BB2

Lucky,

Thank you for your detailed reply. It is great to have a proper chat about HUM. I am always willing to consider other realistic views and opinions. I will digest your detailed thoughts and respond later accordingly. Good to debate.

BB2