RE: AGM questions & answers25 Jun 2020 14:35
ShandyPants2 - According to the website, Matthew Shaw, NED, is still our contact on Protos. My own take on the reason why the Protos contract was not renewed is because the price action appears to be much more stable during the past month. I am swayed by the thesis that this is due to the BTC options market. Basically, the exchanges make their own markets by selling the majority of the call options on their exchanges (that's the rumour). This leaves them with huge liabilities every month and a sizable financial incentive to short the market in order to keep the price below the majority of these call options. A similar argument exists to a lesser degree for puts below 9k (this is also the level at which institutional buyers are tempted to add I would think). So we see fairly stable price action between 9k and 10k and the need for a smart quant system like Protos is undermined somewhat.
Looking at the June 26 options on derebit we have 4000 10k calls, 2000, 10.5k calls and 4000k 11k calls. It is perhaps unsurprising therefore that BTC has rejected the 10k level several times already this month. It is witching hour tomorrow and I am hoping to see some of these options push out towards 11k and 12k as this will hopefully be reflected as a ceiling for July.
This said, today has been bearish and a test of 9k looks possible. Another crash to 5k is always a distinct possibility. I would be adding BTC, RIOT and maybe even ARB at this level.
GLA.