Member Info for bignose58

Nice to see FUM having a good day. Volume up as is the sp. Long may it continue. A lot of catching up to do here. ;-)

Morning The.Italian.

I wouldn’t underestimate their lack of communication since we have witnessed many times them failing to update the market/shareholders. They follow absolutely no fiduciary requirements.

They just need to get an agreement with 7-Eleven who have outlets all over the globe (In 2001, there were over 72,000 stores in the world). Obviously local approvals will be needed, however. Get an agreement with 7-Eleven Inc and let them follow up with relevant approval processes. They can then place the product next to the Durex stands they currently have near the counters. They must have some agreement with Durex or whoever holds the license.

Of course that's me being pessimistic re the FDA and License agreement which is based on them taking 9 years to get this far. 5 years of which have been spent towards phase III. There is noting to say they may get a lifeline within the next 6 months, but I choose not to count on it as we have been thoroughly let down many times before.

Note: Even though have ref'd they have been in discussions with a Japanese licensee the last couple of years, I am sure they too will be waiting on an FDA result.

Onwards and sideways.

Morning The.Italian,

I’m afraid I am not suggesting China will negate the need for yet another cash call since no monies will be forthcoming until the approval next year.

Since there won’t be anything coming from the US or even the EU (30k cans every 4 months won’t cut it), I expect that Jim will have to sub the company since there isn’t any money after Dec. I don’t see him subbing the phase iii but only the operating costs for both ERP and the DLI. I have no idea if the FDA have time limits between the end of phase II and the commencement of phase iii.

Bothwell,

Personally I'm looking towards the Chinese submission which could happen from the end of July followed by 9 to 12 month before Wangbang receive the approval. They have stated they are targeting 9mill in the first year (Wangbang must have a good idea what they are expecting since its their home market). Even if they only manage 25% of that it will certainly turn things around. I would also expect a serious amount of share buying on the back of the approval news too, if not on the submission.

With respect to the FDA, I have written any approval off for at least another 3 years (let alone any license agreement given they are now clutching at straws in the hopes of ever signing with anyone). The company has shown to have no idea what it is doing regarding obtaining approval. One just has to look at the numerous dates that have been given for any approval, including the simple ones like Macau and HK - both of which were arranged by the company and took twice as long. Come July the phase II will have reached the 5 year mark and still they have not managed to move on to phase III, its unprecedented and utterly incompetent. And remember this continued delay is probably impacting several other regions who are not committing before FDA sign off. In the words used in that old Clint Eastwood Movie Heartbreak Ridge. "Its a complete Clusterfcuk !!!"

That's my 2 penny worth for what its worth. :-)

Morning The.Italian.

I think it was a case of a shot in the dark regarding them trying to get a SPA.

First it was a market report, then a SPA. Seems they are clutching at straws in trying to reel in a U.S. licensee.

Even Dr Mike telling me he has been keeping licensees hot (note I write licensees as in more than one). Yet after all these years there are still no takers. It certainly does t bode well. Yet the Chinese seemed to jump at it and from the off. It also seems that they have high hopes on their targeting 9mill in the first year hence the 25% and royalty payments.

I'm very confused about the US. It’s as if no one wants it (shrugging shoulders). Anyone taking the plunge would surely not lose out. And if there were indeed more than one licensee surely one would have bitten the bullet.

Well, it's now at an historic all time low (I think I'm right in stating "ever"), well certainly since RPG took over the reins and JG was made CEO back in 2014. Shareholder value has since then been nearly wiped out. I'm sure Dr Mike wasn't aware of RPG's managements incompetence when he advised shareholders to agree to the PLE takeover deal.

As I suggested following the recent rights issue. There would be less shares available (even more so with the recent 20:1 split) which effectively makes share trading less liquid and more volatile with associated extreme price movements. I wonder what's coming next ?

Whoops, I got my i's n a's mixed up from all the excitement. Certainly a nice way to start the week in the UK.

Morning The.Italain,

One down, one to go....lol. fingers crossed.

As a further clarification.

The tiered % is linked to the patent. In a standard patent, copyright, or trademark license, the inventor charges its partner either a flat fee or a simple percentage of total sales. Ie it’s an additional amount to the 25% on net receipts.

So if it’s Low to high teens, the 25% could be much more when both parts are included. :-)

My understanding is that net receipts are the profits from particular sales after all costs and taxes have been paid.

Net sales are the total value of a company's sales after amounts for costs such as returned, damaged, or missing goods, and any price reductions, taxes, etc. have been subtracted.

They are probably confused themselves given they have no experience in either......lol

Oh and I openly admit I was very critical of the Chinese agreement when it was first announced, but in hindsight. It was more of a kick reaction from all the previous disappointments since upfront payments, although needed at the time, wither in comparison to higher % rates on all sales.

Even if they only manage to sell to 1mill of the targetted 9mill, which I’m sure is conservative, that’s still close to 30mill usd to ERP (less tax of course). ;-)

The above is based on 100usd/can. (The company did state sometime back that China would be something like 75% of a US can cost). Assuming 150USD/can in the US.

If it’s as much as that, they may even decide to pay their first ever dividend…….now I’m definitely getting ahead of myself……lol

I just checked the China agreement as I wasn’t 100 % sure my memory was still intact…lol.

I’m happy to write I was indeed correct. 25% of all receipt. Also, there will be a 6mill USD milestone payment upon approval which I had forgotten about. 25% will be amazing if Wanbang can achieve a good % of the 9 mill sufferers targeted in the first year. Regarding the 6mill payment. It’s so close yet so far given ERP will run out of money at the end of this year. Since the NMPA approval could be mid next year (maybe even a little earlier), I hope Jim may see fit to loan the company some dosh to tied them over for a few months rather than have further dilution which I’m sure he too doesn’t want.

I am deliberately ignoring any possible us license agreement since we have been walking down that road for the last few years of BS with no result.

So my moto is now “Trust in the Chinese”…..lol

Morning The.Italian.

I would suspect that after reading about the renegotiated EU agreement, the Chinese made the rules re the upfront payments. Also, not forgetting they have paid and handled everything in a reasonable manner re the approval process. Also I think I am right in saying the % PLE receives is a lot higher than that of EU sales (wasn’t it something like 25% for China compared to mid teens for Europe). Ie if they do mange to capture much of the targetted 9 mill in the first year leading to 175mill in the following 9 years, we may never need to look back, so maybe not as bad as it first appears.

It certainly is very easy to manipulate the SP at this level. 42 squid at 19% (0.82 vs 0.69) above the sell price. Anyone could be doing it.....lol

Actually I'm not so sure the US is the big one any longer. Surely if it was that big, a licensee would have snapped up an agreement a long long time ago, yet nothing, not even now. As such, I'm beginning to think China is the replacement big one (and the Chinese approval will be 2 to 3 years before the US).

Also, one just has to look at numbers involved. USA population = 331mill. China population 1.412 Bill (4.25x larger) that's 41mill possible sufferers compared to 176.5mill. Even if one looks at a lower can price in China (according to the announcements a can in China will cost 67% of that in the US) so effectively 118mill sufferers. Even with a 50% uptake compared to the US, its still more.

At the end of the day only time will tell, however. The US will always be trying to catch up given the approval delay between the two.

Hi Prof, nice to see you still around.

By my reckoning, your investment should be more like 9 to 10k, if that’s any consolation. Yup I’m afraid as professional go, it turns out they know nothing about nothing when it comes to pharma or even investing (remember the DBC and now the DLI). At least the chinese have been steaming ahead. Hopefully final submission in a month or two with approval in about 12 months following. See what can happen when an approval process is taken out of the hands of monkeys.

Profit warning from ERP, but possible FDA Approval for FUM. Exciting times….lol