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Morning The.Italian,
Yes, of course they will, particularly since they are now effectively in a closed period. Their timing, as usual, when it comes to screwing investors is spot on. It’s a pity they cannot run the business as efficiently.
Given there has been a delay of a couple of months and with no lockdowns, maybe they can expedite the submission sooner. (they could have already been compiling it during the delay). So, fingers crossed on that one.
According to the China drug trials website, the phase III recruitment has now completed, which I guess means a possible approval towards the end of next year, if their previous timelines from completion to submission and approval are still valid.
A good start to 2023 anyway.
http://www.chinadrugtrials.org.cn/clinicaltrials.searchlist.dhtml (search for PSD502 and use google to translate the page).
Morning The.Italian,
Yes Christmas was probably the best any of us have had these last 3 years. So cheers to that.
Let’s see what 2023 brings.
Morning guys.
Yes, let’s hope 2023 is a year where self sustainability and some is achieved. But don’t forget, due to the recent dilutions (DLI and the rights issue) , any investor is going to want to see 159% more now than before to achieve whatever value they were expecting. That is to say if a market cap of 150mill squid was a bail out point, that now needs to be 390mill to see the same amount.
Hopefully, if the product sells in the US and China as expected, we could see more than that, however. It will all come down to how well the product is promoted by the licensees. If ERP have any involvement, the product will never get off the ground.
The.Italian,
I notice DVP crossed the 3A$ threshold today. It’s taken a while.
Although the sp has been erratic these last few months, the trend has been upwards. It’ll be interesting to watch how it plays out.
Morning The.Italian,
Thanks for t good wishes, likewise to you mrs TI and your family.
It’s the only conclusion I can come to given they (PSNW) have been at it for 5 years and Recordati appeared to be sitting back and watching it happens (probably because they had to)
Obviously, if any remaining long-term holder sees any mistakes in what I have written (its been a rather long time and my memory isn't what it used to be...lol), please post any corrections or alternatives to what I have posted.
continued.....
Its anybody's guess exactly who else JM may have covertly investing here, but I cannot help but feel there are a lot more than is transparently clear.
Following on from what The.Italian has written. I too wait for the FDA approval and to see how sales in both the US/China/EU pan out which we should start to have an indication about towards the end of 2023.
It certainly has been a roller coater investment and clearly shows how companies should not be run, but it also shows how the law can be steered to allow single entities to run a company as their own. It's worth noting that at one time there was a need for at least 25% share ownership before an EGM could be called. This has since been reduced to 20%, but it makes no difference since its all controlled by JM and his cohorts who proxy their shares to achieve their own personal goals. which means we all have to sit and watch to see if they can finally bring this to a positive conclusion.
On a final point. Recordati (Italian EU licensee) even after several years of disappointing sales and being subjected to a sub standard supply through manufacturing problems has kept the faith and obviously sees a future in the product. They continue to be positive about it and took the unprecedented step of obtaining OTC approval and initiated a change in manufacturer who, within a few months, solved the impurities problem which the current manufacturer (PSNW) could not achieve in as many years. Personally, I feel they probably had their hands tied by the contract and could only act once it had expired or a certain time of none achievement had passed, otherwise I am sure they would have initiated a change along time ago.
Anyway, I hope the below and above gives you a better understanding in what you have invested in. Hopefully you have invested at the right time to see a rerate in the companies finances next year.
Ripley,
Another reason I invested is because the product (Fortacin) was invented by Dr Mike Wyllie. He, if you don't know, was a co developer of Viagra when he worked at Pfizer (Viagra wasn't originally developed as a ED remedy, which was actually a side effect of the drugs original use). Although Pfizer saw no value in the ED development, Dr Mike convinced them otherwise. The rest is history and it has gone on to be one of the most talked about drugs on the market and made Pfizer a shti load of money.
Of course to develop a new drug like ours takes investment and as such JM got to hear about it, saw an opportunity, invested himself and used RPG (now ERP) as an investment vehicle. RPG became one of the largest investors , even though they were a vehicle for investing in mining stocks with no knowledge of Pharma. Around mid 2013, the then current CEO Ronal Openshaw was ousted, who has suffered from sour grapes ever since. He often posts here (Oh look, there it goes again) on a mission to discombobulate shareholders with his own personal grievances (rather than email the company directly).
Then around the beginning of 2014, JM brought in the GRP CEO (JG) to run PLE which has been on a downward spiral ever since. Following the RPG takeover at the beginning of 2016, the company has been run by JM/JG and the existing RPG board, none of whom have had any idea on how to run or invest in pharma and they certainly have no prior commercial experience in this field (a blind monkey could have done a better job). One would think JM would have replaced JG and the BOD with competent, experienced people given he is supposedly a shrewd investor, but unfortunately for us shareholders, he did not and as a result we and the company have suffered for it. The company made a 3mill squid investment in the Diabolical Boot Company (DBC) which, after 3 years, was effectively lost. They also purchased the DLI with a 23% dilution to existing shareholders which has yet to show any result and benefit to shareholders and which I still consider to be a white elephant. (the DLI is involved in Longevity which JM already has his fingers in a much larger pie). The CEO of the DLI has links to those other companies making it all rather incestuous to say the least.
Apparently if JG had redirected money into the FDA approval process, we would have had FDA approval 2 years ago, which means all these other investments and of course JG'd disgusting 1.5mill usd salary (reduced to 1mill during the covid year, but substituted by equivalent options instead) could have gone towards that goal. We would certainly be in a much better pace than where we are today. Its so inept that one could quite easily think it was all orchestrated to achieve a goal of complete control (JM, after the RI, will hold near 60% of the company and that without considering all the shares his hanger-on's hold, which if included must be getting close to about 80%..........
PE is as common amongst men as ED, ie 25% of men suffer from it (although I have read a few times it’s closer to 30%). So you can see the potential here. It’s just unfortunate it’s being managed (approval timelines and licenses) by a bunch of clowns.
I personally don’t, but I have watched it for a long time. They have had ups n downs with different products which never took off, however. This lates ED gel looks like it could be a game changer.
FUMs product is for ED lots of competition, ours is for PE with not much competition.
Ridley,
With respect to our product. It’s for PE (premature ejaculation) with the same number of sufferers as ED (Erectile Dysfunction). Given that and the fact that there are now numerous approved ED similar products on the market which still make huge profits for the owning companies, ERPs product should do reasonably well since there are only one or two approved products aaable.
I write reasonably well since there is a lot more stigma attached to the vinegar stroke than there is to obtaining wood, however. Given time, just like what occured with ED drugs, men will became more bold in admitting they have a problem and the number “coming out” will increase. Also, with the China approval, that means exposure to approx 187.5 million sufferers. In the US that number is approx 42 mill and in Europe (E5 - the 5 largest economies/most people) it’s approx 32mill. The EU now has OTC approval meaning a sufferer only has to visit a pharmacy and buy off the shelf rather than visit a doctor for a script (to be relaunched OTC in 2023 due to manufacturing problems which have apparently been solved). Even with the stigma attached and the uptake % being low, they are still large figures if an av can cost of 75usd is assumed. (The Chinese are targeting 9 mill sufferers alone in year 1 after approval ie probably commencing sometime next year). Also note that once a can holds 12 doses, most will probably be buying 2 to 3 cans a year (the products effects wear off if one stops applying it)
Of course those numbers are not reflected in the sp because the company keeps running out of Money and management have time and time again shown they are totally incompetent with no business acumen. As such, investors have left the building and the market has lost all confidence in the company, however. Once sales take off, investors should be flooding back particularly when they think money is to be made with respect to sp rise and dare I write dividends.
Ripley
If you are interested in urology products of the sexual nature. You might want to look at FUM since they are waiting on FDA approval for a fast acting OTC ED gel which could take a chunk of the Viagra and Cialis markets, both of which take a while to to work and need a script. Approval is only a matter of weeks away and could rocket the sp onto a new and never before seen level.
No advice given, but take a squizz and DYOR.
Ripley
I'm just a little confused regarding your sale . Were you talking about selling the rights to the rights issue or selling actual shares you hold since, as I posted a day or two back, there were 130 mill rights (not shares) up for sale at 0.01 which makes sense given the sp was around 0.75. Anyone could buy the rights and although it would add 0.01 to the price that would be needed for the rights shares, they could effectively buy 130mill without impacting the SP. if one were to try and buy that many shares on the open market, they would probably need to pay double if not treble the current sp.
As I also wrote, if you managed to sell the rights (not the shares) at 0.79 etc, good for you, although I really think there must be a misunderstanding on my part as to what you were selling. I think The.Italian was/is a little confused too.
As to why I bought in. I did so because there is obviously potential for the product given what else is available, however. Shareholders have been deeply let down by incompetence in management who have no idea what they are doing. That and all the BS they have continued to regurgitate to shareholders regarding cream tomorrow. As I wrote recently, they were supposedly to have had discussions with the FDA in 2014 and agreed an unambiguous way forward, meaning they must have agreed a list of requirements to achieve FDA approval which they stated would be forthcoming mid 2017. Little did shareholders know that it was all made up fantasy and nothing more than lies.
That said I chose to continue to hold because there is definitely going to be fireworks once the Chinese approval comes through and of course finally the FDA which is still up in the air given it has taken them 4.5 years just to get this far with the phase II (and we still have not had approval to continue with phase III). There is much that new shareholders don't know about the companies antics and pie in the sky schedules, which can be found if one were to choose to wade back through all the announcements to 2015, unfortunately the PLE announcements (RNS's) and presentations are no longer available to download, although I do have most of them which do make some interesting reading with respect to unkept timelines.
Anyway, I'm sure 2023 will be a turning point in the companies and our fortunes........but then again, we are relying on incompetence to get us across the line wrt FDA, so at the end of the day. Its anybody's guess. Mind you we are fortunate that the Chinese approval process is not in ERP's hands but with the experienced professionals in China who have managed to get us close to approval in less than half the time its so far taken ERP to obtain FDA approval and even with double the number of test subjects.
I notice there were a couple of single share trades (others) this morning. I wonder if it signifies anything other than due to the current crisis in China, that’s all they could afford….lol
I wonder if those buying at the moment realise they can buy the rights to make them eligible to buy more shares in bulk ?
Morning The.Italian,
I'm sure it goes without saying that JM uses other unrelated entities to buy shares on his behalf, it's a lot easier and above suspicion to control a company that way. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't have a few cloaked investors he can call on to slip in 1 or two 10k lot sells or buys when the needs be or even to buy and sell to drive a price down to a preferred level for a placing for example..... lol. It wouldn't take much given the amount of shares available to trade.
Ripley, I assume you are referring to the rights, which I am surprised at given that whoever bought could have gotten many many more at 0.01.
But great if you. They must have thought they were buying actual shares at that price....lol
I would guess that given the increased risk after so many years of delays and incompetence, no one wants the opportunity to buy a large amount, which would also include any possible prospective licensees. Also, I would suspect that because it will nearly be wholly owned by JM and his circus after the right issue, with the added 20% requirement to call an EGM, larger investors would shy away from exposing themselves to such a one sided controlled investment. AIMHO.