Addresable Market26 Feb 2018 00:33
Based on population figures extracted from the worldometers website, I get approx population for the E5 to be 265.5mill
Assuming 50% are men = 132.75mill and assuming 25 % of these are sufferers = 33.2mill and an av price of 50 Euros a can = over 1.6billion euros.........wow as much as that.
Anyway, given that Recordati's pessimistic sales figure for the E5 is 20 mill euros (pls correct me if I'm wrong).
that means they have assumed a market penetration (including for the "no shows") of about 1.2% !!!
Since there is only one other European approved medication, which is nowhere near as friendly to the "Johnson", surely this figure must be higher. Even at just 5%, thats over 80 mill euros, which RPG receives an initial % of around the mid 20's.
Seems there is a lot of upward scope for our product even with the multiple drawbacks being put forward...such as men with one leg, men with one eye, men who cant hop, men who keep falling over...etc etc..... LOL
You can make your own minds up on what reduction figures you want to use, but it seems to me that currently Recordati's figures are understandably very pessimistic indeed. They cannot be seen to be too optimistic for a new drug. However, I know they are very excited about the product, which would indicate internally they are otherwise very confident. As written by many other posters, it all comes down to whether their excitement will be supported by their marketing, which, so far, from what I have seen, would appear so.... :-)
And remember there is still the UK and another 5 countiries to be launched in the second half of this year which will add another 75.7million men.
And remember the above is all for the purchase of only 1 can. What hppens if the product is liked and 2 cans or even 3 cans/year are purchased !!!