Member Info for bignose58

Contd..... At the moment we can only speculate on what sales are going to be like, although we do now know they now want to upscale to 380L (why?), which is something positive....no ? All this does, however, is give us something to think about whilst we wait to find out exactly what sales figures are like in the next month or two. No one who posts here knows, not even the so called experts. The only people who know are Recordati and maybe RPG, who are both keeping the information to themselves. Pessimists will think the worst scenario whilst optimists will think the best..... I wonder what type of person are you ... me I'm the latter..... :-)

Not an expert at all, just presenting things as I ve read and been advised. The.Italian, what you have to remember is that Pom and I are coming from both ends of the stick. He is referring to the stated figures by Recordati which, as you know, are based on projections with no previous sales figures. Remember Also that RPG themselves have presented much higher figures which again are from opposite ends of the possible market. Neither will know until figures are in. However, Recordati being probably the only possible licensee for Europe are basically calling the shots and if they can and did get a good deal from RPG. They have a group of vastly experienced businessmen in this area whereas all RPG had to offer were a few people who only have experience in minerals.....not quite the same is it. All I did was look at figures that had been presented which is a little more logical than all the speculation. We know that the production rate was upscaled and approved to 300L (from what we don't know) this apparently as stated produces 50k cans and was upscaled to reduce price point and based on expected sales (stated in announcements). We are now informed that this 300L is to be upscaled again to 380L. Now why now and why only 380L ??? We have no idea. All we can do is try an understand the reasoning as there is no further explanation. We know that 5 to 6 further countries come on line starting in Sept and maybe the upscaling is to help with this given that the 380L product tank should be ready around about then (meeting whatever requirements need to be met). We dont actually know how long it takes to produce a batch and as such, as I was told PSNW could produce 8mill cans a year indicated to me the shortes time a batch could be produced is 4 to 5 days, however. This may be different now production is underway (less ?) Maybe it takes longer since a batch cannot be relased until the required samples are tested etc etc. If any batch fails, I would assume the batch would be destryoyed, however, I am pretty sure given the time PSNW have worked on the production before initial upsizing, any problems would be sorted and I would not expect whole batches to fail. (Although I have no idea if this does or could happen as I am no expert, just based on what I have seen on the Discovery channel on similar production lines :-).... ) If we assume that no batches fail and PSNW will not have a production line sitting idle between batch production, then surely they must be producing a batch a week ??? However, all this depends on the yearly possible batch production to be able to work backwards oto find an approx hourly production rate. Initially I was told by JG that PSNW could produce 12mill cans/year which he subsequently changed to 8mill/year, which is quite a big difference. As such, I wont hold my breath that this is 10% correct since PSNW declined to give me that information when I asked for it.... :-)

Same as usual. A spurt of buying which soon dries up followed by the continuous sell off. (2x 1miil and 1x 2mill). Indicates to me investors trading not knowing what could be released in the way of sales in the next month or 2. They get their 15 to 20% then move on....... IMHO of course ;-)

Prof Maybe send him a reminder. JG is usually pretty prompt in getting back to me, even if its to say he cannot divulge such information.

Another subliminal message..... LOL "Pan out" = to develop in a particular way or in a successful way Me thinks he knows a lot more than he is letting on.................. :-D

Fnose..... lol Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow, I expect it will drop to begin with....then it�s anybodies Guess what happens. Maybe I need to post more on the batch size upsizing.....lol

Good news....EU launch in 5 countries....sudden price drop Bad news ... FDA.....now end of 2021 with sales possibly mid 2022, if we are lucky ..... sudden price increase. Well there you have it. HK market = arsebackwards.........lol

The.Italian, So as not to lead to any confusion in my wording. The 8mill cans/year is from one production line only, incase anyone thought I meant PSNW can only produce a total of 8mill cans on all up and running production lines. As mentioned previously some time back, to get another production line up and running will take PSNW 12 to 18 months (as advised by management) so increasing batch size is far quicker. As to the largest batch size that can be produces, I have no idea, but it could just be 380L since this is a strange figure to upscale to as advised in the recent AR.

Caught the sellers completely offguard, although I"m sure they will catch up as the day progresses.

Going great guns this morning....a broker must have read my morning post on batch size....LOL

The.Italian, We could very well, optimistically, be looking at an SP of double what you are suggesting by the middle of next year........ :-O

And 4.5mill euros/week if 75eur/can. You can all make your own decision on an average can price.... ;-)

Something of interest as a sales indicator....or not. 300L = 50k cans PSNW apparently produce 8mill cans a year (from management) this works out at about 160 batches a year (allowing a few weeks for holidays). Now I have no idea if this is a 24hr process or only works when the lights are on during an 8 or 10 hour day, but it may provide some indication of possible sales. I am sure PSNW will not stop start a product line to suit requirements as they will want a continuous flow of income and they certainly wont switch production lines between different vendors due to all the paraphernalia required to get a production line up and running, although I could be wrong. Any-road-up, 160 batches a year works out at about 50k cans every 3 to 4 days. So if we say 60k cans (380L) every 5 days that works out at about 3mill euros a week for 50euros a can. I"m sure there are many "but what ifs" here. Never the less it may still give some positive results. Also to note (The.Italian): E5 = approx. 132mill men E11-E5 +UK = 75.7mill men (due to start in Sept till Jan 2019) Turkey = 41 mill men which apparently is also on track for early 2019 (as well as North Africa call them the A5, but not included here). This was clarified by bunions communication with Recordati and a follow up JG email confirmation to me. Total = 248.7mill men Of course this will not happen in one day, but with a gradual build up, however. Looking at the above can production rate, we are looking at hugely positive figures, which are more positive than some may think. Why else now increase production from 300L to 380L unless recent sales figures require it?..........no ?

Since its going to take another 4 years before there are any sales in the good old USA and 3 of those years will be used to test the product, surely if the product is on sale to a much much wider audience with the accompanying feedback on side effects etc, surely this data is far superior to any laboratory controlled testing. I mean we are talking a few hundred thousand as compared to just a couple of hundred. Is this not considered as being far safer. Or is this because the FDA: 1. Don't trust market feedback from hundreds of thousands of users......derrrr 2. Just want money for doing nothing, otherwise they would go out of business ? 3. A laboratory controlled environment will give more realistic results.....err I cannot see how a few hundred can compare to hundreds of thousands of users. Just seems like there is absolutely no logic when an actual user scenario provides far more realistic results than any laboratory environment. I mean are the FDA saying that American citizens are different biologically to Europeans, even if the USA is a nation made up of basically......Europeans ??? and 2 years European results provide much better results. Excuse the naivety, but it just doesn't add up and make sense. If a product is being used, that in itself is surely better than anything else.....

Because I�m an optimist. If I wasn�t, I would have sold out Long ago.... ;-) Also, don�t you find it a bit odd they are in the process of increasing batch size from 300L to 380L, which given the strange magnitude. It�s as if they are near or on the limit. Otherwise, why not 400L or 500L. Why not go for 380 in the first place. This could indicate they need more cans and cannot wait the 1 year to 18 months to get another production line up and running. Remember I mentioned this previously. I�m probably wrong, but it�s all I have as an indication and of course, I think it was bunion who recently had correspondence with Recordati to say they were still highly excited about the product, which I also read from an email received by them.

Pom I'm sure he was politely told "don't say anything. The longer we can pull the woll over investors eyes, the better".... :-O

PP. I do feel really let down. Probably more than most since I met them. Even then I was given information on Website updates and broker meetings which never happened as told as well as a few other things. I was also told things which were never released to investors until several months later, although I did mention them here. At the moment I will wait for he EU launch sales results, which I cannot help feel may be good. But I def won't be waiting for the FDA end game as I no longrr trust any of them and I do now want a life without stocks n shares :-)

Morning Pom, I would be surprised if there were not a few disgruntled share holders there based on this news. Maybe they need to visit one of those western bars with chicken wire that separates the player from the audience.....I mean it is effectively "an audience with Dr Mike".....LOL

Any ideas how this now effects the exclusivity of the product in the USA. The last presentation indicates on the bar chart that Generic entries could start in 2023, one year after our recent projected commercial launch. It does, however, also state that: Regulatory exclusivity protecting Plethora�s data is expected to run for at least 3 years from the date of FDA approval for Fortacin� in the US, though it could be 5 years if the FDA treats Fortacin� as a new chemical entity. Does this mean that no matter when RPG get approval, RPG will still have a possible 3 to 5 years exclusivity period ?

eddieo, I would think the drop to 0.265 a week or two ago probably coincided with the uploaded of the report since it cannot have been uploaded that long ago as it refs the recent EU launch dates.