Member Info for bignose58

And re the US being the holy grail....Surely if it was that important, even more reason to have started that process with the 20 dose cannister 4 years ago, Even if the 6 dose cannister worked, surely the USA, like the EMA, allow for variations. just think where we would be now if that had happened, we wouldn't be discussing the significance or not of the UK launch volumes which would be a blip on a company worth much much more. All speculation, I agree, but then what else do we have at the moment.

No vol or share price action prior to the UK launch could just mean opportunists were just all piling in to make their 20%. Remember, although the whole stock was traded, the company was only valued at 134mill max. surely its not too unrealistic to imagine thousands of Chinese investors who day trade just watching shares ride and gambling that they get in before it peaks, as we know Chinese are impulsive gamblers and maybe that's how the average jo's mind works.

Totally different to the West and how the markets work re day trades....Surely a possibility given the way the share price has moved and been traded before and since. the catalyst being the UK announcement which was enough to cause a huge run ?

Pom

True, but then why the drop in SP after the announcement that at least the product has been registered with now a proper timeline re FDA approval. all previous dates and projections fall by the way side.

I hope I am wrong, but it currently seems to me that until money has changed hands, this will just continue to be a traded share. This should be at a much higher value given what we have and where we now find ourselves, but the market just doesn't agree.

And although it is plain that the USA is maybe 5 x that of the EU. What does that actually mean, just the EU or does that consider all of Recordati territories including CIS, North Africa and Turkey which equates to about 550mill men.
Lets say that the ROW licenses surprisingly were agreed, all of this would far outstrip the USA in numbers and at reduced price and market penetration, I am sure that the USA would still be lacking. Not forgetting China, although I have have left that out due to time that may be taken to get it up n running.

Obviously, if they even post a positive profit alert, we know all is basically good...... no ?

:-)

Pom

Checking previous announcements, it seem the yearly amortization charge for Forticin is 14mill UASD/year. As such the starting point for this mid year profit warning will be 7mill USD. obviously there are other figures to add to this regarding the current investment portfolio and expenses, but we also received the 4.91 mill USD milestone payment for E5 first sales, so basic figure is (2.09 mill usd) brackets rep negative. We should then be able to guage if Q1 sales figures are/are not included and possible magnitude. As long as they can provide a breakdown of investment gains/losses and inhouse expenditure.

Without RPG supplying any explicits, do you feel the above is a possible way to guage or not or have I simplified too much and a complete breakdown is indeed needed ?

Morning Pom

Given the way the market reacted to the EU launch (and Im sure many Asians thought the UK launch was the EU launch not knowing that it was only a launch in the UK to lock in the EMA approval), Im not sure that making an announcement re the USA will have that much impact. Im sure any licensee will only cough up small amounts re milestones given what Recordai managed to get away with.

The problem with this share now is that any news seems to be taken with a pinch of salt, which personally I blame the company for, for not fulfilling previous time lines. Now investors don't trust anything and want to see "the money" ie sales figures before commiting. "Crying wolf" and "once bitten twice shy" come to mind. Currently the proof is in the pudding given the slide back towards 0.3 which looks like might happen again given the usual constant daily sell off. exactly as SS22 suggested.

They have not exactly discussed US licensee partners much apart from what was announced a few years back. At least they have constantly discussed ROW licences, whch, although have so far have come to nothing. At least there has been continued dialogue regardig these. Certainly not the case for any FDA speculative license agreements/partners. Even China seems to be included in discussed more often now.

So whilst Id like to belive, Im not going to hold my breath re this so as not be further disappointed.

Bothwell.

Big money should start to be made before then if they get their fingers out re the ROW licenses and Recordati manage to launch new territories sooner rather than later, which Im sure will be influenced by sales progress. All of these add up to more than the good old US of A.

6 billion ppl on the planet (excluding Chinas 1.5billion). yet only about 350 mill in the USA. It still means a lot of Wonga, even if average can price is a little lower.

Ha ha ha..... Yes I do remember his films too..... not forgetting Charley Drake or even Dick Emery..."Ooh you are awful, but i like you"

px

My understanding is there will be, unless early sales are damned incredible, which I doubt, however. The magnitude of the profit warning could give an indication of first sales, if they do manage to include them in the half year results. Hopefully something will become clear at the end of next week (based on when last years profit warning was announced).

The amortization I understand still has sometime to go yet (If Im not wrong a few more years yet).....This was discussed several months back in detail by our resident accountant Pom.

Just cannot give the stock away at the moment and it seems nobody wants to keep any....... lol

Hi PP

A sea of blue today with only 6 buys.........Timberrrrr

Prof

That is indeed true. It would seem a very high cliff, although I just don’t get it. Why would they keep announcing they are at an anvanced stage. Why write anything at all since I’m sure it would make no difference to the way things have already been played by the company. As to what is happening I have no idea. You are certainly right in that they shd at least inform shareholders of what has caused the vast delay or even if the row licenses are no longer on the cards. It certainly can’t do any more damage to the sp or our resolves than what has already been done with the constant mis information and delays. It’s not like we cannot take it, I think we have all become accustomed to delays and most probably now even expect it. So, come on JG, spill the beans...what’s happening ?

:-)

prof

Maybe there is, maybe there isnt. One can speculate till the cows, come home, as it makes no diffetence to us now, otherwise something more concrete would have happened. Whats currently more important are the row licenses, which are taking forever and a day, and the rest of Recordatis regions asap. Just my opinion fwiw instead of worrying what it all meant as no one knows.. :-O

Morning Pom

Onw would think so, but who knows how the strange mind of an Asian ticks. Im still trying to work my wifes out to no avail, but then again, I guess that's the same with the women the whole world over.....LOL

So far, nothing. A bit like water off a ducks back....LOL

Seems more than likely, although our resident HK trader, SS22, predicted on the 12th June, 1HK$ by the end of June. Was he and his trader mates privy a month earlier to said information since it spiked to about 0.465 around then too ???

Since its now cast in stone...ie it's finally been registered, it could wonders for the SP on Monday.......Will be interesting to see if there is any reaction.

Matt,

Finally something more concrete to go on.

I guess a few emails received requesting an announcement be made for something as important as this may have helped. Probably did it cos he must have known "Friday the 13th" has always been lucky for me....... :-)

Anyway, hopefully its the start of some decent announcements in the next 3 to 6 months... nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

Seems to have reached a new base around 0.4, bouncing up n down around this these last few days.

We still have a couple of weeks before any profit warning is released (based on last years 28th July). It will be interesting to see the magnitude. Im sure there will be no other announcements before then as isnt it a closed period now ?

Yes, of course your right Pom. Thanks for reminding me.