The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
If I was Avani I would get an agreed bid now while the coal price is low. They have to pitch it at a level that the big shareholders would accept but right now something in the low 20p's looks attractive. Thinking about it, this was always their game plan. Sadly I think we will be taken out at a low price, better than 18p but less than 30p.
BEN is a very low cost producer and can make money at current levels so they will not lay people off. Also they have Avani as their major shareholder who are investing heavily. Avani know more about the MET coal price and the dynamics of that market. The current MET Coal price does look too low and we could see a move back to $300+ which would make BEN extremely valuable. We are invested in a geared play on the MET Coal price. With steel likely to be in big demand going forward it looks a good bet imho
Several MET Coal producers have filed WRAN notices re layoffs of substantial numbers of staff. That should take about 2.5m tonnes a month out of supply which will lead to further prices rises over coming months.
Agree.
Mixed emotions this morning, I think Avani will bid for the rest of the Company this year at a much higher price but that means we won't get the dividends going forward. I was really looking forward to some meaty divis. Maybe they will be a passive investor (very much doubt it) and enjoy 10p annual dividend on their 18p investment, not a bad return.
Absolutely agree, if MBU has sold 29.9% of the Company it will create strong demand from investors who were not comfortable with MBU holding a controlling stake. BEN shares are very cheap on fundamentals.
An international commodity trading business is not taking 29.9% as an investment, they obviously trade in coal and see this as a prime asset, they will buy the Company IMHO and have to pay much much higher for the balance of the Company.
TT Canaccord put a price of 210p on the shares when they listed over a year ago but a lot has happened since then. Phase 3 will produce £90m of sales and £52m of profits. There are 61.7m shares in issue so the forward eps is 84p. A super growth Company like CEL would normally trade on a pe of at least the mid-twenties but in this market a very low 10x should be achieved, that gives us a short term target of £8.40.
I'm looking for much more than that.
Brains, it seems likely that CEL will be bought just like GW. Either that or the shares will massively re-rate. I listened to the interview again this weekend.
Phase III produces sufficient for 50k patients which gives CEL £90m sales and £52m profits. In the interview James Short says Birmingham CC have been fantastic, hugely supportive, and have brought some property deals for more farms to him. He then says one of the facilities he is looking at will prove enough crop to support 200k patients. That is £360m sales and £208m profits. When they ask him how many patients he can serve by 2027 he says "several hundred thousands, maybe a million".
Just topped up a little and will be putting more into my ISA next week. CEL is a great British company doing good things. Most likely someone will bid for it just like GW Pharma, I just hope James Short is not going to sell out too cheaply.
Yes, James Short actually mentioned he had property companies offering to fund turning buildings into Hydroponic Cannabis farms and leasing them to Celadon. That would really accelerate the growth of the Company.
https://www.***************************/celadon-pharmaceuticals-plc-%E2%80%9Cup-to-80-million-uk-sales%E2%80%9D-says-fund-manager%C2%A0/4121112442
I topped up a bit today and will be holding for at least 10x this price. Gervais Williams at Miton is very bullish on CEL and sees £80m sales just from substitute sales from imports. CEL is our only UK based producer of medical cannabis, one for the SIP.
I reckon dividends will be paid this year and going forward if, for no other reason, AW doesn't get anything out of this unless he pays dividends.Hhe has mentioned his intention to pay them several times and will have plenty of cash on hand over the coming months.