Member Info for bigkahuna

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If the MET Coal price can just pick up a bit BEN will throw off so much cash. Fingers crossed.

I'd like to see a couple more gains in MET Coal before buying more BEN.

Agree.

Mixed emotions this morning, I think Avani will bid for the rest of the Company this year at a much higher price but that means we won't get the dividends going forward. I was really looking forward to some meaty divis. Maybe they will be a passive investor (very much doubt it) and enjoy 10p annual dividend on their 18p investment, not a bad return.

https://on.ft.com/3A2Z2ud

Absolutely agree, if MBU has sold 29.9% of the Company it will create strong demand from investors who were not comfortable with MBU holding a controlling stake. BEN shares are very cheap on fundamentals.

An international commodity trading business is not taking 29.9% as an investment, they obviously trade in coal and see this as a prime asset, they will buy the Company IMHO and have to pay much much higher for the balance of the Company.

When this turns it could fly. There must be potential bidders down here, especially with 10p dividends coming later this year.

TT Canaccord put a price of 210p on the shares when they listed over a year ago but a lot has happened since then. Phase 3 will produce £90m of sales and £52m of profits. There are 61.7m shares in issue so the forward eps is 84p. A super growth Company like CEL would normally trade on a pe of at least the mid-twenties but in this market a very low 10x should be achieved, that gives us a short term target of £8.40.
I'm looking for much more than that.

Brains, it seems likely that CEL will be bought just like GW. Either that or the shares will massively re-rate. I listened to the interview again this weekend.
Phase III produces sufficient for 50k patients which gives CEL £90m sales and £52m profits. In the interview James Short says Birmingham CC have been fantastic, hugely supportive, and have brought some property deals for more farms to him. He then says one of the facilities he is looking at will prove enough crop to support 200k patients. That is £360m sales and £208m profits. When they ask him how many patients he can serve by 2027 he says "several hundred thousands, maybe a million".

Just topped up a little and will be putting more into my ISA next week. CEL is a great British company doing good things. Most likely someone will bid for it just like GW Pharma, I just hope James Short is not going to sell out too cheaply.

Yes, James Short actually mentioned he had property companies offering to fund turning buildings into Hydroponic Cannabis farms and leasing them to Celadon. That would really accelerate the growth of the Company.

I think CEL will be bid for, I just hope it is next year and at something similar to GW Pharma.

https://www.***************************/celadon-pharmaceuticals-plc-%E2%80%9Cup-to-80-million-uk-sales%E2%80%9D-says-fund-manager%C2%A0/4121112442

I topped up a bit today and will be holding for at least 10x this price. Gervais Williams at Miton is very bullish on CEL and sees £80m sales just from substitute sales from imports. CEL is our only UK based producer of medical cannabis, one for the SIP.

I reckon dividends will be paid this year and going forward if, for no other reason, AW doesn't get anything out of this unless he pays dividends.Hhe has mentioned his intention to pay them several times and will have plenty of cash on hand over the coming months.

Jim Short expects to serve 50,000 patients when phase two is up and running and that will give CEL a turnover of £90m with £52m profits. His ambition is by 2027 to serve one million patients which will produce over £1 billion of profits. That is without profits from LVL. By my reckoning that is over £500 a share. Can someone do the maths please?

BS at £90m sales they make £45m EBIT on a pe of 15x that makes a market cap of £675m, so 63m shares gives an initial target price of £10.71 Thats before international expansion or a US bid. Time to top up imho.

My expectation is double the IPO price so looking for 330p which seems reasonable after progress made.

hTtps://www.***************************/dg-innovate-accelerated-route-to-market-video/4121107870