Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
"Shareholders are invited to watch the AGM via a live stream. The link will be available on this page from 09.30 a.m. on the morning of the AGM."
https://www.itvplc.com/investors/shareholder-information/agm
Good summary of current challenges:
Summary: "... for now, the attention is on whether (Unilever) can transfer rising costs onto customers."
https://newsfilter.io/articles/preview-unilever-margins-in-spotlight-as-inflation-surges-a2118bbe746a3d89da9dab74696132db
Looking at Proctor & Gamble ($PG) today for their first quarter earnings statement, for any relevance for ULVR.
Just released in US.
"(WSJ) - Procter & Gamble Co. is raising prices on a host of household staples as costs for freight and raw materials rise faster than the consumer-product giant anticipated."
Evergrande might go away without making any difference whatsoever to markets outside China, especially if they intervene, on the other hand it could be 'the next big thing' - we really have no way of knowing - so as an investor in financials I find it's good to just have awareness of current events with a banking relevance that could develop...
As an ordinary investor I have no idea. But if you think back to Lehmans - there was a complex web of counterparty liabilities. Sometimes it's not simply that counterparty A has debt with Evergrande.
It could be much more hidden eg that counterparty A has a derivative contract linked to Evergrande with counterparty B who have sold half of the position to counterparty C who have underwritten their risk to counterparty D...
This is why it's called systemic shock. Or in other words, everybody has a hand in the pot!
More downgrades Wednesday. Pay attention to Evergrande.
https://www.jaunenglish.com/fitch-downgrades-china-evergrande-sees-probable-default/
I’m always keeping an eye on foreign stories with banking relevance - just learning about Evergrande in China this morning…
Plenty on social media, but doesn’t seem to have much western financial press yet. Here’s some info from zerohedge (yes I know - but there are other sources!)
Depends whether China can contain it or banks take a hit.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doomsday-evergrande-arrives-creditors-demand-immediate-payment-bonds-no-longer-eligible
This mornings 3% drop is clearly a combination of the circa 1.4% dividend being removed (0.67/47.19 prior close) plus an element of sellers that were just holding on until qualifying for the next dividend. The co-incidental (?) Goldman Sachs downgrade to SELL is just one analysts view - and he was saying sell when LLOY was at 27p!
But perhaps more interesting - and maybe market paying attention - is the next BOE monetary policy decision today at 12:00.
From an article on Bloomberg today - they say most economists expect the BOE to lower the level of interest rates needed before QE starts to unwind. This opens the possibility of negative rates - something that Banks have been told to have contingency plans for as we all know.
Interest margin is crucial for retail banks, and if the negative rate scenario plays out - I expect it to be a negative for LLOY, at least in the short term.
All eyes on 12:00 then!
I've pulled out the last years data (not an ideal period due to Covid chaos last March obv) but anyway looked at behaviour around ex dividend day. I know its a small dataset but I get a feeling that what is typical is an initial drop for approx the dividend amount (normal) so 37p off and then often around 1% more of a fall until around midday when price often bases.
So depending on where it closes today, given current price as i write 11am (3840) that would be a drop to 3800 initially then further weakness and divi bailers until about 12:00 around 3760.
So looking to buy around that time around that price tomorrow (subject to todays close).
Its not great but its a plan/idea. :)
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/european-bank-regulators-reportedly-leaning-towards-extending-dividend-ban-20201210
China insurance co increasing stake in HSBC. Lifts banks.
http://googlenewspost.com/2020/09/28/european-markets-rally-as-banks-bounce-hsbc-up-10/?feed_id=475
“Plan” is misleading.
There is no plan, which would imply intent.
“ Her remarks come days after BOE Governor Andrew Bailey played down the prospect of such a policy any time soon. He said it is in the toolbox but that ‘doesn’t imply anything about the probability of us using it.’ ”
Part of the BoEs role is to guide money markets and sometimes the threat of something is all that’s needed to get the outcome you want.
www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-27/boe-s-tenreyro-sees-encouraging-evidence-on-negative-rates
Good to read these comments from the NatWest Chairman - you have to feel comfortable he knows what he is talking about...
Clearly the return of dividends is both the biggest current hope for investors and threat to shorters.
Personally (logically too?!) I think it’s inevitable (even if there is another small delay - which I doubt) that dividends will start to be paid in 2021.
What will that trigger? Cash rolling back into LLOY shares from pension funds etc that have to maintain an income stream.
It will be a significant income too for those that get in early.
LLOY was capable of paying 3.25p per share until COVID.
At Fridays close of 24.72p that’s an income of over 13%!
You won’t get that income in 2021 but in the years ahead it seems highly likely.
My SIPP is hanging on to this income for the next 10 years...
Interesting day - FTSE +0.2%, BARC + 0.4% but LLOY + 2.3% !
May be linked to tip today (Behind a paywall but jist of it below):
“...Anyone who takes a punt on Lloyds should not expect a quick payday but its shares look good value at this level...BUY”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dont-bank-on-it-but-this-looks-cheap-6kshq73p9
As if by magic:
“UBS President Axel Weber wants to crown his career in the financial industry with a big deal.”
UBS believed to be running the numbers against four top European banking targets: Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Barclays and Lloyds.
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/die-hochfliegenden-ideen-des-ubs-praesidenten-axel-weber-844945783239%3Futm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_campaign%3DEd_Social_Post%26utm_medium%3DEd_Post_SZ&usg=ALkJrhhRdcjHPQQiNMljsPm2ERilSYqwsQ
No I don’t. However it is true that the MW position has generated a lot of commentary, and therefore once it goes away it can only be positive for sentiment.
Of course it’s small. Thank god!