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China insurance co increasing stake in HSBC. Lifts banks.
http://googlenewspost.com/2020/09/28/european-markets-rally-as-banks-bounce-hsbc-up-10/?feed_id=475
“Plan” is misleading.
There is no plan, which would imply intent.
“ Her remarks come days after BOE Governor Andrew Bailey played down the prospect of such a policy any time soon. He said it is in the toolbox but that ‘doesn’t imply anything about the probability of us using it.’ ”
Part of the BoEs role is to guide money markets and sometimes the threat of something is all that’s needed to get the outcome you want.
www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-27/boe-s-tenreyro-sees-encouraging-evidence-on-negative-rates
Good to read these comments from the NatWest Chairman - you have to feel comfortable he knows what he is talking about...
Clearly the return of dividends is both the biggest current hope for investors and threat to shorters.
Personally (logically too?!) I think it’s inevitable (even if there is another small delay - which I doubt) that dividends will start to be paid in 2021.
What will that trigger? Cash rolling back into LLOY shares from pension funds etc that have to maintain an income stream.
It will be a significant income too for those that get in early.
LLOY was capable of paying 3.25p per share until COVID.
At Fridays close of 24.72p that’s an income of over 13%!
You won’t get that income in 2021 but in the years ahead it seems highly likely.
My SIPP is hanging on to this income for the next 10 years...
Interesting day - FTSE +0.2%, BARC + 0.4% but LLOY + 2.3% !
May be linked to tip today (Behind a paywall but jist of it below):
“...Anyone who takes a punt on Lloyds should not expect a quick payday but its shares look good value at this level...BUY”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dont-bank-on-it-but-this-looks-cheap-6kshq73p9
As if by magic:
“UBS President Axel Weber wants to crown his career in the financial industry with a big deal.”
UBS believed to be running the numbers against four top European banking targets: Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Barclays and Lloyds.
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/die-hochfliegenden-ideen-des-ubs-praesidenten-axel-weber-844945783239%3Futm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_campaign%3DEd_Social_Post%26utm_medium%3DEd_Post_SZ&usg=ALkJrhhRdcjHPQQiNMljsPm2ERilSYqwsQ
No I don’t. However it is true that the MW position has generated a lot of commentary, and therefore once it goes away it can only be positive for sentiment.
Of course it’s small. Thank god!
A tiny reduction from 0.61% float short to 0.59% - but keeping an eye on this useful link for any further reductions to lift sentiment...
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0008706128/
Something else I found from 2006 mentioning the dividend yield being a huge factor in takeover targeting.
With the last 3 years total divs each totalling 3p+ we are now up to about 12% yield vs 25p on an eventual return to normal.
Whilst banks can’t issue dividends or buyback shares in themselves - there is nothing stopping them buying shares in other banks and effectively delivering that forward yield to their own shareholders...
Donald Tosh at stockbrokers Speirs & Jeffrey, said: "I think that Lloyd's independence is impossible to sustain at the current share price because of the yield. The group is paying for its own takeover."
2006: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2006/feb/02/lloydstsbgroup
An oldie but a goodie.
Wells Fargo takeover rumour from 2005 - citing a good fit.
YES 15 YEARS AGO NO NEED TO POINT IT OUT! :)
I was just wondering how much cheaper Lloyd’s must look today to potential predators like Wells Fargo and what price could it be stealed at? For example: if just 30p was offered you would reasonably expect claims of “Too Low!” - but that would represent a 20% premium which is typical.
Wishful thinking on a Sunday morning of course - but anyone else wonder how such an event could play out?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4184578.stm
Remaining 2020 dividends for ISF
Announced: 10/09
Excludes Div: 17/09
Paid: 30/09
Announced: 03/12
Excludes Div: 10/12
Paid: 23/12
PRA (not FCA):
"This statement confirms the PRA will undertake its assessment of firms’ distribution plans beyond the end of 2020, in Quarter 4 2020."
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/prudential-regulation/publication/2020/statement-on-dividend-payments-and-share-buybacks-beyond-2020
"The UK’s financial watchdog has told banks to offer a range of “tailored” repayment options to mortgage borrowers hit by coronavirus when the ability to claim three-month payment holidays is withdrawn at the end of October."
https://www.ft.com/content/76ada5b7-69e8-4016-b7db-2dda54000c70
To clarify - (and this is with HL) - i couldn't get a fill at all for the whole holding - and if you start to split it up you notice the offer price gets slightly better the smaller the sale is. So i opted to sell about £100k 4 times, then one final lot of about £200k (which surprise surprise had the worst fill price).
I consider myself very lucky today as I managed to do this just after market open on the spike today, sold 2,115,647 shares in LLOY just after 8am.
(I really did this honest, the lot sizes were 344,374 344,648 344,962 338,516 and 743,147 - all visible in the LSE public record!)
If it shoots up tomorrow yes I'll be pi55ed :)
Will probably keep trading in and out for a while.
Sure. This is an institutional holder so things like averaging down don’t really come into it I think. They will probably have this large 6% holding in Lloyd’s for donkeys years .
I actually didn’t quote his final comment but for the lazy it was:
“I have to believe we are at or close to the bottom [of the valuation],” he adds. “It’s not easy keeping faith, but this virus will pass like all before it.”
Just thought it was interesting that the 2nd largest LLOY shareholder would make such a comment.
I hope he’s right! He is probably better informed than I am...
Spotted a recent article in the FT, generally about the pandemic - but it had an unexpected comment from Harris Associates. If you own LLOY and don't know who they are - you should check out a list of top shareholders. Harris Associates are the 2nd largest holder of LLOY with just under 6% of Lloyds held - a huge position, just behind Blackrock.
Here is the comment:
Things are getting a bit crazy. Economies are in recovery mode, capital and cash positions are very strong and yet bank valuations are worse than in 2009, it beggars belief,” says David Herro, vice-chairman of the $90bn asset manager Harris Associates, which owns top-five stakes in Lloyds, Credit Suisse and BNP Paribas.
https://www.ft.com/content/b0b241d9-7c94-4b91-b727-d39245005d07