VSA5 Jul 2018 09:39
South West Pensinsula Secured
The announcement in late June 2018 by Columbus Energy Resources (CERP LN) that it signed the Sale and Purchase Agreement for Icacos represents another milestone completed by the new management team. With the operational turnaround at Goudron well underway, management’s efforts have also been focused on unlocking the value in the South West Peninsula where an estimated 1.3BBoe are in place. The announcements in relation to BOLT, and now Icacos, pave the way for exploration drilling in 2019, which will enable the value realised by CERP shareholders to be maximised, in our view.
Updated Financial Estimates
Following the publication of full year financial results we have updated our estimates. The stronger recent performance of WTI oil prices has modestly benefited our near term estimates although this has been offset by a slightly slower ramp up and we expect an average of 675bopd through FY 2018 with over 800bopd by year end. We have also rolled over the model to reflect a return to profitability for forward earnings. Our Goudron value is adjusted to 17.5p/sh. The benefits of the recent transaction are harder to quantify definitively, however, we believe that operational control will enable CERP to more rapidly advance development than with a partner to whom the development is considered non-core.
Positive Management Update
We note the recent announcement in relation to senior management remuneration whereby all executive directors and senior management will continue to receive 50% of their salaries in the form of options. We view this positively as it further aligns the interests of CERP shareholders and the management team. This is an extremely unusual demonstration by management of their confidence in the future of CERP, effectively increasing their stake in CERP on a monthly basis. We are not aware of any other AIM oil and gas management who are prepared to voluntarily take 50% of their salaries in shares. This action also provides additional funds for CERP to invest in value adding opportunities.
Recommendation and Target Price
The shares have outperformed peers since management took over although we believe that the recent pullback provides an attractive buying opportunity.
We reiterate our Buy recommendation although adjust our target price to 25p as a result of our updated valuation.