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No problem whatsoever.

An analysis of the numbers from today's Ferroalloys report says that China FeV is now running at $40 per kg.

Argus Media is playing catch up at the moment be it they are now getting closer to reality.

It is of course about FY averages as opposed to one-off price points but such moves help a great deal and for BMN their year is all about post Q1 maintenance ramp up. Let's not forget that 83% of production and likely min. 80% of sales will come from Q2 onwards.

The vanadium market is looking very healthy for BMN right now.

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1397136785692676097?s=20

Morning all,

Here's a couple of posts that I sent out this morning on Twitter which I think contain important information on the vanadium market as it stands.

Whatever the likes of vanadiumprice.com may say about current pricing I don't believe they are putting much effort into their conclusions. In my opinion, the V205 market is key to everything else however much the other vanadium product markets may fight it.

China is key to every other world market because it has the highest demand and exports to those markets. So its prices at home have the ability to starve other markets trying to operate at lower prices. In a tight market that doesn't work.

Big factory prices will be key next week but $9 per lb looks to be on the cards very soon. Whilst catch-up processes may be required for the FeV/VN markets who tend to try to fight these rises in V205, that should lead to +$40 per kg FeV.

We must be careful with what we wish for but that sort of consistent pricing gives BMN a healthy profit this year and can act as a buffer if any potential global market slowdown or worse comes along. This for me first and foremost is about maintaining the expansion plans and delivering on the wider integrated plans. $40 per kg in my view delivers that wit the chance that it may well push much higher

That's my starter for 10.

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1395671249695780865?s=20

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1395664685341585410?s=20

My goodness idly! mildly successful...

Hi Paul150,

I am deeply conscious of my potential influence on these things and so will say upfront that as always this is my opinion and it is absolutely on a par with yours and anybody else's and we all have a right to challenge each other professionally and in the context of recognising and respecting the risk that we all take as investors/traders. I research BMN hard but that doesn't mean that my conclusions are always right.

That aside I would the following.

The $30.50 per kg mark is the best marker that I could establish in order to see where BMN sits in this defining year because it should be the highest production cost we will ever witness if the next refurbishment stages are even idly successful.

That figure is pre-tax. However, it certainly looks like BMN are going to book a significant loss for 2020. I also continue to hold the view that BMN will employ South African government incentives for their brownfield expansions at both Vametco and Vanchem (See below link and run the further 'Do you qualify?' link on the right-hand side).

http://www.investmentincentives.co.za/expenditure-capital/large-industry

It is abundantly clear to me that the current expansion programme qualifies for these incentives. That effectively means up to R550m of investment can be deducted from their tax payments. Using my revised R14.50 exchange rate for 2021 that equates to c. $38m and covers the vast majority of expenses in this regards for the next 2 years. Even more so if each plant can be applied for separately given they are separate entities under the same corporate umbrella. If so then said $38m may be doubled.

My only caveat is that there was a deadline for applications around mid-2020 but as far as I can see that no longer appears on the DTI website. Given that the opportunity is still on their website one is entitled to assume that it is still very much in play.

The DTI is of course the department headed up by Minister Patel who directly referenced vanadium beneficiation in his speech yesterday and which BMN stated they were joining "to help the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition to drive its localization strategy for South Africa."

So they certainly are aware of each other.

https://twitter.com/BushveldMin_Ltd/status/1394877057079914498?s=20

So whilst any figure calculated above $30.50 should be taxable there is solid reasoning available to say it won't be this year and will likely be reduced in 2022. It will of course ultimately depend on just how profitable BMN can be in 2021/22.

Said incentives should also apply to the electrolyte plant under the greenfield umbrella which is costing BMN a further $5m and gains an extra point for being situated in an IDZ.

Finally, it's important not to forget that BMN has already made min. c$8m profit from its BE related asset sales this year, be it in a more unconventional manner than expected.

@coffeecups

The PFA deal was agreed between Orion and Vametco Alloys, not Bushveld Vanadium. It is therefore sectioned off from the rest of the business and the gross revenue rates are therefore associated with Vametco only. So it's highly unlikely that parent guarantees would be set up for the whole vanadium business.

The rate is to "be serviced through quarterly repayment amounts (comprising repayment of principal and payment of interest)." So it's not pure royalty as it includes repayment of the principal be it that we don't know the exact breakdown between principal and interest.

It is tied to inflation but the denomination isn't given and so the S.A. inflation assumption is just that. As it is tied to revenues and these are in dollars (note unit price and vanadium price both in dollars), one would expect that this is the inflation currency.

Also,

"On each of the first three loan anniversaries, the Borrower has the option to repay up to 50 per cent of both constituent loan parts. If the Borrower utilises the loan repayment option, the gross revenue rate and the unit rate will reduce accordingly."

Given that this loan is tied to Vametco production but that BMN is expanding Vanchem through the separate CLN and is due to take its electrolyte plant into production late next year, there is a very good chance that BMN will be in a position to start to make such payments and reduce the gross revenue and unit rates stated.

Additionally, this year's gross revenue rate is lower at 1.175%. Therefore the increased rate of 1.45% from 2022, may not be around for very long (perhaps c. 3 years) and is perhaps why it was agreed in the first place, in order to give Orion a better return.

This deal as far as I can see has been based on the assumption that BMN will add significant production, reduce its production costs substantially and therefore have profit to pay down the loan. Therefore the gross rate and unit prices as they begin are of less relevance. What is however highly relevant is the refurbishment programme's success.

As for the Vametco workers taking advantage of this situation that's a bit of a jump for me. The strike commenced c. 5 months after this deal was closed and its outcome was a payment of R4,500 per Vametco worker. At last count, Vametco employed 380 people and management there wasn't a part of this deal. However, even if we say that everyone received a payment that equates to 1.7m Rand which is c. £85,000. In the scheme of things, such a sum is irrelevant.

It's a good deal for both parties that is designed to push BMN to perform and deliver up to 6,800 mtV. If they do that this deal will be remembered for what it was, the means to make the big plans come to fruition at a time when life was hard.

In criticising the make-up of this deal it is all too easy to forget what brought us to this moment in time.

BMN completed the purchase of Vanchem in November 2019 knowing that they had significant finance to find to refurbish the plant to a level that made it profitable once more. Like so many businesses that are trying to better themselves they could not have envisaged that Covid would come along and completely upend their markets.

The timing for BMN couldn't have been worse. It has already been reported that the discussions with Orion had been in play since shortly after the Vanchem deal got done. The Durfeco payments were a line in the sand created before knowing what the future would hold. Covid not only removed BMN's revenues streams but decimated its share price at the exact point that they were attempting to get this deal over the line.

So bold decisions had to be made which is clear from the 17p agreed for the CLNs.

It is a testament to what BMN has to offer that Orion closed this deal at all but yes they did hold many of the cards and that shows in the deal structure. However, what better choice did they have in 2020?

This deal whilst likely costing shareholders up to c. 16% in dilution and perhaps some selling pressure, also delivers the funds to take this business to 6,800 mtV. Overall when given sufficient time to execute is a very good deal for shareholders.

That conclusion is further compounded by the fact that in the months leading up to the closing of the CLN deal on the 9th Nov 2020, the SP averaged around 12p. With their finances taking a battering due to Covid and bills to the like of Duferco coming due, attempting to raise the sort of capital needed in a placement, would have attracted far worse lenders and cost us all far more dilution.

BMN made the best of a bad situation and with it attracted one of the very best mining lenders onto the books. Yes, Orion will do very well out of this deal but so will BMN, given what it could have cost them and what Orion could have pushed for.

These things are forgotten all too easily. The plan is intact and the building process began in earnest when this deal got signed, but like all things mining time is required to execute.

2/2
My view is that Orion is a real long term partner in this and will likely (dependent on company performance of course) wait until much further down the line to convert. After all their price is set and they can make great returns by just picking up the interest. I could then see them converting towards the end of the deal or indeed immediately prior to payment at BMN's request which would then give them the best of both worlds. Again depending on BMN's performance during that period.

The caveat in that being that BMN can request their conversion once the share price sits 200% above the conversion rate of 17p for 15 consecutive trading days. Something I certainly expect them to achieve during that 3 year period.

Prior to that I simply don't see Orion converting unless they wish to sell the shares and given their style I personally don't see them seeking a fast buck on this. So it would have to be in a scenario where the SP is considerably higher than 17p. Their investment is as far as I can see supportive and designed to realise a far greater outcome later down the line.

My view only of course.

1/2
Afternoon everyone,

I just wanted to flesh out my thoughts on the Orion situation given it is a topic of concern.

First of all, here is a recent deal that Orion Mine Finance (OMF - which is who we are in business with) concluded with Occidental for $1.3BN.

The same article states that OMF has some $6.2BN in assets under management. Does that guarantee that they won't convert their CLNs and sell the lot? No.

What it demonstrates is just how big a mining asset player BMN has got into bed with. This is no YD or Orange Trust we are dealing with here. Their goals are arguably more long terms and for bigger prizes. Having searched the internet I cannot find another CLN deal that they have concluded. They tend to be more royalties orientated which is what their deal with HZM gained them.

https://apnews.com/article/f0e91d867ca4a311b49d02e4ac2ab746

The only deal I can see on the list of historic transactions that they provide that is even close to a 'convertible type loan is one with Stornaway Dimaonds in July 2014.

https://www.orionresourcepartners.com/orion-mine-finance

As far as I can see they then disposed of an amount of those shares in April 2019 which is some 5 years later. This despite the share price tanking from around 2016 onwards and ending up at c. 10% of the value it was when they took their shares.

Again does not remove the possibility that they won't convert, sell and walk but there's much evidence in the sort of transactions that they do to say that it isn't their style. Through their HZM deal, I have seen evidence that they do their homework and they invest for the longer term.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/orion-mine-finance-disposes-of-shares-of-stornoway-diamond-corporation-893566333.html

In addition, it's important to appreciate that their $35m CLN delivers them $3.5m per annum in interest over a 3-year term. So simply sitting still would give them c. min. $10.5m in profit or c. 30% profit.

By converting and selling they would need to know that they could sell each tranch at a price that at the very least matched that return. One third could be converted now and the next third up to 12 months post the Dec 2020 transaction date.

At 17p each one-third element amounts to c. 49m shares. Interest after 1 year gives them another 14.7m each time.

So in total, the first tranche would be c. 63.7m shares or c. 5% of the revised total shares in issue.

To shift that amount of shares at a 30% profit they would a sizeable margin of support above the 22p mark because their sales would pull it right back down. It may of course pan out that they need the money for something else but I don't see $35m being a big problem for a company with over $6BN in total assets.

@SMT1

I never actually said that V prices could reach $60 per kg this year. I merely used that pricing as an example of potential profitability.

What I am focused on are the trend and significant pricing point breaches. That doesn't guarantee anything but right now things are looking very positive.

@AlastairMcgrift I agree with you in part and absolutely respect your position.

However, in my view, you give Largo too much credit and the markets not enough. Largo are hugely profitable at current vanadium prices. They also have a weak Brazilian Real at their backs. Prior to January 2020 the Real couldn't break above c. 4.10 to the dollar. Then at the start of 2020 it started to surge peaking at c. 5.80 real/dollar in May 2020. It now sits at c. 5.25 a dollar. That's a c. 30% improvement on 2019.

Now take the Rand. It sat at c. R14.30/ dollar at the start of 2020 and also surged that month, hitting a peak of over R19 to the dollar in April that year. The problem is it has since receded and now sits lower than that January 2020 level.

That's what is hurting BMN right now and helping Largo stay elevated.

This allows Largo to run at all-in costs of c. $5.30 per lb V205. So prices of +$8 per lb are very attractive to a market that isn't stupid. At my last count, Largo also had c. $70m in the bank and no debt. BMN is taking on debt to deliver a brownfield expansion.

Yes, Largo is pushing into energy storage but what contracts have they won? What substance would the share price have to hold on to? Right now next to nothing. It's all words.

BMN does not sell its energy storage story well enough but it is happening and it is far more worthy than Largo's headlines. I don't believe the market is anymore excited about Largo's energy storage angle than BMN#s. What it likes is that Brazilian Real price and what it does for Largo the miner.

In South Africa, something has to give because the market is pricing a bigger success than most minerals are giving them to date. So either the Rand falls or commodity prices go up. I think the latter will apply across the board.

Let's try that again.

@cindercone Again very much appreciated but in all honesty, there are some very well versed investors in BMN.

That aside, at current prices and my estimated total costs, the outcome that this BMN management team achieved on their Invinity investment will likely add 40% to the profitability of the company this year. That's great business acumen and is worth far more than PR in my book.

However, despite the clear need for better communication and guidance, starting with what 2022 is going to look like, this team has delivered a +4,000 mtV producing mining company just as vanadium prices look set for another surge.

Yes costs are higher and the Rand is really sticking the knife in at the moment but that in itself points to where the market expects these commodity prices to head. If not then the Rand falls back. It likely can't have both.

Quite frankly no one in this for the long energy storage game likely wants to see a repeat of 2018 but let's be honest, it wouldn't hurt our pockets now, would it?

It has been a tough journey to get to 4,000 mtV but again that is already +56% higher than what they were achieving when the last surge took place. So 2018 prices need not apply. As an example, $60 vanadium, so less than half the peak of 2018, would deliver $120m in pre-tax profits even if current costs and production stayed still.

That's not an impossibility given what is happening in the vanadium market today. This management team delivered that and this market, however stupid it may wish to look, will notice that if it happens. PR or not.

If the said surge in pricing takes longer to come through which is what FM indicated in their analysts call ( and that is what it was an analyst call, not an investor call) and I have to, then even with these bumps in the road production is going to be higher than 4,000 mtV in 2022 and that will reflect even more in the SP.

Right now $35 vanadium is healthy but the market wants more in order to buy into it. Just like they did in 2016/17. But mark FM's measured words in that call, steel production is much stronger than it was in 2016. BMN is sending much more material into China now. That reflects a Chinese market that is in deficit and they are maxing out on production in a very high iron ore price environment. That is a recipe for significant price rises and a great deal of pressure for the US/Europe because they need material to come out of China not be sent into it.

@cindercone Again very much appreciated but in all honesty, there are some very well versed investors in BMN.

That aside, at current prices and my estimated total costs, the outcome that this BMN management team achieved on their Invinity investment will likely add 40% to the profitability of the company this year.

Yes costs are higher and the Rand is really sticking the knife in at the moment but that in itself points to where the market expects these commodity prices to head. If not then the Rand falls back. It likely can't have both.

However, despite the clear need for better communication and guidance, starting with what 2022 is going to look like, this team has delivered a +4,000 mtV producing mining company just as vanadium prices look set for another surge.

Quite frankly no one in this for the long energy storage game likely wants to see a repeat of 2018 but let's be honest, it wouldn't hurt our pockets now, would it?

It has been a tough journey to get to 4,000 mtV but again that is already +56% higher than what they were achieving when the last surge took place. So 2018 prices need not apply. As an example, $60 vanadium, so less than half the peak of 2018, would deliver $120m in pre-tax profits even if current costs and production stayed still.

That's not an impossibility given what is happening in the vanadium market today. This management team delivered that and this market, however stupid it may wish to look, will notice that if it happens. PR or not.

If the said surge in pricing takes longer to come through which is what FM indicated in their analysts call ( and that is what it was an analyst call, not an investor call) and I have to, then even with these bumps in the road production is going to be higher than 4,000 mtV in 2022 and that will reflect even more in the SP.

Right now $35 vanadium is healthy but the market wants more in order to buy into it. Just like they did in 2016/17. But mark FM's measured words in that call, steel production is much stronger than it was in 2016. BMN is sending much more material into China now. That reflects a Chinese market that is in deficit and they are maxing out on production in a very high iron ore price environment. That is a recipe for significant price rises and a great deal of pressure for the US/Europe because they need material to come out of China not be sent into it.

I appreciate that HarChris. Here they are. I trust they are worth it and easy enough to follow. It's just my opinion remember. There are lots of very good other ones out there too.

https://www.bbnbigbitenow.com/post/bushveld-minerals-review-of-q1-2021-update-part-1

https://www.bbnbigbitenow.com/post/bushveld-minerals-review-of-q1-2021-update-part-2

Morning everyone,

I have just put some notes together in the recent vanadium price rises in China.

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1392751140736012288?s=20

All three main markets are now running at +$8 per lb which is a significant milestone.

It is important not to lose sight of the fact that the majority of BMN production will come in H2 2021. The 35 day maintenance period at Vametco and possibly the kiln 3 refurb at Vanchem have seen to that.

8th Feb update,

"Estimated Group production of between 4,100 mtV and 4,350 mtV in 2021, a 13 per cent to 20 per cent increase relative to 2020, with volumes weighted towards the second half due to a 35-day maintenance shutdown at Vametco during Q1 2021."

Important not to forget that Vametco is at various levels feeding into the Vanchem plant and will likely replace Vanchem ore acquired from Mapochs at some point this year.

So Vametco's operating position post the Q1 shutdown is significant. Even on an evenly weighted basis Vametco guidance at 2,775 mTV, would mean Vametco lost c. 240 mtV just on the 35-day shutdown alone. TO this we need to add the effects of the maintenance work and de-bottlenecking + the fact that weather-wise H2 is always a much stronger production period.

So we are likely talking about a significantly bigger H2 2021 which makes prices year to date less influential. This is all about what pricing environment BMN is expanding into (possible inventory sell down noted). Therefore, Q1 update is about stability and maintaining guidance. Subsequent quarterly reports are what are going to deliver the impact if this vanadium market rise is maintained.

I cannot say for certain that it will be but the macro factors are certainly in place and history says when prices push beyond $6-$7 per lb, we are already in a deficit scenario. This push beyond $8 in my view, compounds that argument and says it will now continue (significant market crashes or Covid related influences aside).

Thank you. You are a star.

Morning gambitxjs,

Thank you for this. It makes for very interesting reading. You wouldn't happen to have access to the 2nd article posted by Ferroallloy to day, would you? It's the one entitled "vanadium system is in good atmosphere..."

No problem if you don't.

An unnecessary and unsubstantiated tirade that I didn't earn or deserve.

For the record, I only visit BBs where I am invested. I don't go looking for fights because they are a waste of time and I don't feel any need to be in a BMN cult just because I am passionate about the stock. Whether I am believed or not is of little relevance. The markets and the stocks we choose to support will do the real talking in the end.

I have posted some thoughts based on what I have learnt from being invested in vanadium for the last 6 years or so. I have put a lot of time into this industry. It will be of use to some who will hopefully be encouraged to look deeper into it and find things out for themselves. Whilst others will likely ignore it or write it off as lies. That's fine. It is of little consequence to me because facts cannot be changed.

I will continue to add to my position here as the price allows and I will post here as and when I feel I can add something of worth. However, my home these days is my Twitter feed and my blog which when I feel stronger (currently sick) will now include Invinity because post the SGRE deal this is for me a long term hold.

Until then.

2/2
Where BMN remain of great importance to Invinity and so yes should be involved in any sensible discussion about Invinity and their prospects, is that they are a willing partner even when the vanadium price is set to spike. That long term security sets a benchmark for the like of SGRE when they carry out their extensive due diligence.

As I wrote earlier today, in SGRE Invinity have found a partner who is going to be asking about GW size production and not MWh which is where Invinty still is at this time. So we are talking many thousands of tonnes of vanadium and it cannot simply be about abundant material in the ground, it has to be about how does it get out of the ground and into our batteries and at what sort of likely price? It is highly unlikely that the likes of Siemens would make such commitments without these answers having some sort of structured plan attached.

In the 2 years that it will take for SGRE/Invinity to deliver on their developments plans the energy storage market is likely going to explode. Vanadium supply is therefore going to come under even more pressure even if steel demand waivers somewhat in between. The VRFB market can expand far more quickly than any mine can be developed.

I would think that a Siemens of this world could have a 1GW plant up and running within 18 months. At 17,000 mtV that would require 4 fully expanded Vametcos to feed. Right now until vanadium prices rise most greenfield projects that aren't owned by existing producers aren't going to get financed. The vanadium price is just too damn volatile to enable it.

That means vanadium price spikes are a real risk for VRFB companies as they were in 2017/18.

Despite all of that SGRE signed up with Invinity to develop grid-scale sized VRFB opportunities. Without BMN behind them the questions on the sort of risks I have just listed, couldn't be answered by Invinity on their own.

That is not to say that BMN are the only story here. This is a partnership that has come together at just the right time and presents a compelling pitch. That is why Siemens has signed up. Great tech. Great experience and now defined supply lines for the one product that is most important right now, the vanadium.

Once the scale starts to really kick in (and it has to be well beyond what Invinity is approaching now c. 50-60 MWh) then the vanadium element becomes less influential. However, in order to achieve the commitments to that scale, the vanadium supply has to be the most central concern right now. It's unfortunately unavoidable.

In time I believe Invinity will have more choice and all along the way BMN and its shareholders have to respect its place in this partnership.

I am really excited by this deal and what it means for Invinity and BMN. It is the first real springboard to large scale VRFB production outside of China and is groundbreaking, and both sets of shareholders really should be rejoicing it together.

1/2
Having now started to build a position in this company I find myself visiting a BB that looks to be filled with a great deal of unnecessary anger. That doesn't do anybody any good and detracts away from the work that both companies are achieving both individually and in partnership.

As I have explained on my Twitter feed today, the sell-down by BMN when looked at factually had no lasting effect on Invinity or its future. The two key elements for longer-term success centred around a high placing price (so minimal dilution) and a completed deal with SGRE at the same level of valuation. Both have been achieved. Anything that happens in between is purely short term market dynamics and only affect those that feel compelled to sell during that period.

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1392378787225120769?s=20

As someone who has also invested for a long period in the markets, such actions are common and often have far worse outcomes but placed in long term minded context they really are not critical to my/this investment's overall success.

IES management is all about that longer-term consideration and when all things are considered, I am sure they are delighted by the support that BMN has given them since they tabled the idea of a merger to both Redt/Avalon in 2019.

Moving forward these two companies futures are now intertwined and it looks very much like BMN will be IES go-to partner for vanadium for the foreseeable future. That continued relationship will of course be dependent on BMN matching any offers of vanadium/electrolyte available in the market. So it's not a given.

However, it is in my view a mistake to assume that vanadium and/or electrolyte is easy to come by at prices that make business sense. Yes, the world is full of vanadium and in the case of China, 87% of their resource sits in stone coal. Unfortunately, right now, it is too expensive to extract to be of value to what are still fledgeling VRFB companies. It is also under a great deal of pressure from China environmental crackdowns.

Therefore, the vast majority of vanadium is still coming from Chinese co-producers and right now they are struggling to keep up with demand in their own country. In addition, Chinese VRFB companies including VRB Energy, are ramping up to demand to c. 5,000 mtV for their own list of VRFB projects starting later this year. My belief is that is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of 'local' demand. At c. 110,000 mtV total 2020 production, we are already talking c. 4% of world production going into VRFBs in China in 2021/early 2022. Once that begins to expand then the likes of Invinity are going to need low-cost vanadium from ex-China sources and that is limited at this time.