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@Mikemine,

Check out this enclosed slide which demonstrates the path for Mistral costs per MWh between 2024 and 2026. Starts at c. $60-$70 öper MWh and then reduces down below the US DOE target of $50 by as early as 2025.

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1673263288812032001?s=20

For those that haven't seen this yet. Looks like a really significant 3 months coming up for Invinity.

https://www.bestmag.co.uk/flow-battery-maker-invinity-unveils-next-generation-product-at-ifbf-2023/

I will be attending the STX AGM shortly as a means to get a gauge on how management is feeling about progress.

However, it is important not to forget that management told us when they will update on half-year trading in the last Investor Meet event. Please see 31 mins 30s in.

An update is scheduled for Aug 2023.

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/final-results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2022-1

I will be attending virtually.

The key takeaway in all my waffle there is that those 16 reps achieved 26% growth in Q1 2023 vs the average set by 22 reps in Q4 2022. So only 4% behind Drew (30%) who is clearly one of the top performers.

Average Q1 sales in that group were 531 per rep.

If the others have kept pace with Drew then at 27% average growth (674 sales per rep) that group is capable of delivering nearly 11,000 sales.

That would be a fantastic base from which to add the other 82 reps.

Lastly, Hardman has the average number of effective reps running at 34 in Q2 2023. If they all achieved 674 in sales then we are talking 23,000.

Interesting times.

Excellent thank you.

Drew writes that he is in the top 5% of the sales team since hired in 2021. So some discount is required there. However, as I posted in late April the 16 reps posted an average 26% improvement in Q1 2023 vs Q4 2022. Drew is stating he achieved 30% so we are 'only' talking about 4% above the group average. So the discount doesn't need to be too significant.

Very simply if the same gap was applied to Q2 then the group average should be c. 27% vs Drew's 31% which is very healthy.

Not trying to solve everything here just attempting to make some worthwhile points.

Funnily enough, if you follow my thread through I also came out at 24,000 and I deliberately didn't build in any growth for the first 16 reps in Q2 (a safety buffer if you will.).

I ave since learnt that some of the numbers from the first 14 new reps were likely free or heavily discounted samples which will be adjusted out in the interim. Still,

STX management will have planned for this in their cash flow forecasts and a large element of this remains about getting the product seen and prescribed. So the total number remains valid in my view.

Thanks for sharing. I plan on attending the AGM and posing one or two questions on progress and confidence in the numbers. Whatever happens, the August update should be interesting.

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1651842133504978946?s=20

Hi Frankie1x,

That's perked my attention considerably. Could you provide a link to the Linkedin page that makes this statement, please?

Also, we were told in the company presentation that the 16 top reps achieved 8,500 sales in Q1 which equates to 531 per rep.

Thanks in advance.

Thanks, 2phevs.

This one is a serious winner. Got everything going for it. It's now just about hanging in there long enough to realise the true rewards.

I think one last decent-sized raise when Mistral lands. Likely as a basis to let Gamesa in and pay for the next expansion phase but it shouldn't matter by that point because the market will have got it and it likely won't dent the valuation by much. A recession may throw a few curve balls but it's not getting in the way of battery storage rollouts for too long if at all. You can't save the earth if you aren't signing contracts and utilities have limited focus on-short-term economic tides.

Hold and wait for gold is my view.

Have a lovely weekend.

Invinity is in a really good place now and I am extremely excited about both the near and longer-term prospects here.

We already know that the pipeline has increased significantly and that should come out with the results. It was already at +2GWh so a significant uplift must be compared to that existing number.

Furthermore, there are multiple references towards the US DOE long-duration programme and other recent US legislation designed to support battery rollouts. The IES category has funding up to $50m per project available. I suspect this is where US Vanadium comes in and why IES recently made a commitment to training union electricians in the US. The US funding demand minimum 40% local content and job creation. This is why Invinity is also hinting at setting up US production which is clearly further along than we know about. There is a strategy in play here which we investors are yet to realise but it is coming.

Then we have Mistral whose chances of success received a big shot in the arm recently wit the pilot project. If the market was focused enough it would appreciate the enormity of this milestone because it says Mistral is going to arrive. Security in that knowledge should have the market repricing Invinity purely on the fact that its JV partner builds 100s of MWh in one sitting and needs this battery option to help it return to profitability. Meaning significant work is going to be realised once it is commercially available and I suspect that is where we will see the most uplift in the pipeline even if it's not marked down as purely Mistral.

Lastly, my belief is that the serious Mistra pilot projects are still to come later this year. They are the ones that Mistral needs to market the product properly. So I expect them to be larger than the 1.2MWh seen to date. But that part is my view only at this time based on my research.

In previous years Invinity has always given notice of when the results will come out. Clearly this year the auditor has picked up on the cost of fulfilling previous contracts which has led to an extended audit and financials sign-off process. Today's announcement looks to be designed to highlight this and explain that (for once) the extra time is centred around an actual improvement to the report.

In terms of cash burn, it's important not to forget that IES raised £23m before expenses and then almost immediately settled the outstanding CLN payment of $2.1m (c. £1.65m). Making the actual cash raised closer to £21m.

YE22 Invinity had £5.1m in cash. So the current cash position of £15.4m indicates a cash burn of c. £10.7m since year-end. However, it's important to appreciate that this is merely a moment in time and is heavily affected by front-end payments suppliers to execute the increased workload both this year and into FY24. The message from the company has been consistent that the cash raise was sufficient to support the company through until the Mistral launch which is c. mid-2024.

Also from 23rd Feb RNS,

"In its announcement of 22 February 2023 the Company set out that a minimum Placing of £16 million was sufficient to satisfy the Company's working capital requirements through to the end of H1 2024. On 23 February 2023 the Company announced that the Placing was oversubscribed and subsequently increased to £19 million. The Company is therefore comfortable that the additional £3 million to be received in the Placing combined with the £2.5 million Subscription, the Company's existing cash resources and any proceeds from the Open Offer provide the Company with a robust working capital position."

£16m was deemed sufficient to reach HY24. The company raised £5.5m more than this and then spent £1.65m on repaying the CLN. That repayment then gave them 97% ownership of the remaining shares issued to the CLN provider (1.78m) and they control when they are sold. So yet more be it relatively small financial support.

The LODES £11m award is just that until such time that the client and matching funding are announced. IES won't have received anything yet.

On top of all this, the Vancouver facility has recently been expanded to 200MWh. Sufficient we are told for the next 24 months of operations. So CAPEX has been covered and plays its part in this recent cash burn.

What's truly key is that project sizes/workloads are increasing and they are now providing positive gross margins. Meaning cash burn decreases markedly going forwards.

Finally don't forget that the Australian 8MWh project rolling out this year was won in November 2020. I suspect this is the loss-making project which automatically skews the cash burn in HY23 as it is finally completed.

For those that haven’t seen them.

https://twitter.com/bigbitenow/status/1661289320492195841?s=46&t=6uXiPPBc0pslakpmlxiTnQ

https://twitter.com/bigbitenow/status/1661290180743970818?s=46&t=6uXiPPBc0pslakpmlxiTnQ

For the record I have not pumped and dumped my DKL holding. If you read my timeline properly you will see that I post on DKL whenever I have something I feel is worthwhile sharing. Such as my thread on El Niño and it’s potential affect on CPO price sentiment in H2 2023 due to the affect it is expected to have on Indonesia yields in 2024/25.

DKL is in the best shape it’s been for a very long time and is certainly worth more than 4p.

What I see is a healthy pullback prior to the next leg up but I do recognize the recent slump in wider market sentiment. That said I think we see a strong May production (my est. c. 20,000 tons) which should lead to €20m in revenues in H1 (ex. Cashews).

Then it’ll come down to how prices and production performs in H2. Management says they are tracking towards €7m in EBITDA which says to me that this is a €70m business (EV).

I do think we should expect price softening but the cashew operation has the ability to replace the majority of any shortfall in 2024 and thee we n enhance overall revenues from 2025 when expansion to 15,000 tons should be in full swing.

In the meantime it would be good to see some debt refinancing to reduce pressures there whilst the business maneuvers through this pending economic rough patch.

I'm not sure I explained that very well so I will put it another way.

The 16-salesperson team demonstrated in January that it could achieve total sales of 3,240. Divided by 16 people that equates to c. 202 sales per person. Having worked for the company before they are the closest we have to a full-on-boarded team and its effect.

At the same ratio, a 100-person team achieves over 20,000 prescriptions per month.

But January was likely the month when many new avenues and methods were only just being applied. Marketing, focus on smaller areas etc. So even that team has much more to give. The other 84 sales persons need time to get up to that speed. As does the marketing campaign etc. Yes, we have to adjust for repeat sales but in theory, that element should only grow along with the team-driven sales just as it has before. Meaning the calculation retains sufficient accuracy to be employed (My view).

STX just needs time to demonstrate all of this and they have at least 12 months' worth of funds to do so + we are told royalty or debt finance options when the time comes. If so then we get even more time to watch this picture truly unfold.

Hi PharmaGiles,

You can see the effect of the month-on-month total prescription volume in the table in the update. January was only 3% higher than December with Feb only 1% higher than that. Clearly driven by the fact that Shield had to hire 16 "direct sales representatives" who were previously part of a "contract sales team" (A big difference moving forward given they will also only concentrate on Accrufer moving forwards) and bed in the 14 new people that joined them.

Because Jan and Feb were fairly flat (1% difference) it is easy to work out the monthly sales. March was a minimum of 3,990 of the "over" 10,500 sales that were booked so we are talking c. 6,510 between Jan and Feb. At 1% difference that is near as damn it 3,240 in Jan and 3,270 in Feb. Thus whilst the 38% doesn't immediately feel like a big uplift it was c. 21% (again see the table) which is a marked improvement.

A 22-person contracted sales team(which I take to mean outsourced) achieved 9.324 sales. A combined new dedicated team of the first 30 sales persons is showing through the March figure that it can achieve c. 12,000 sales and half of it (14 people) barely got going in March and so can likely deliver much more given more time.

Unfortunately, the market is seeing a rather flat Q1 figure and saying not good enough show me more but in my opinion, it is being lazy and reverting to type (current market conditions and so attitude). There is clearly a lag effect on commencing work and actually contributing meaningful sales which should clear itself much more in Q2 for those that were added in February and to some extent the 36 people that came on board on 1st April.

The marked increase in first-time prescribers looks to have been completely bypassed by the market and it is important because it widens the reach and enables more self-driven repeat business to be realised.

I am trusting that management will better explain things in the investor call and show commitment to quarterly updates which I have asked about. It is clear to me that STX is now on a steep sales curve which will show itself in the next couple of updates/interim reports. Then let's see where the valuation sits.

Morning all,

I will publish this here too because I have little confidence that Twitter is allowing posts to be seen properly anymore. Battery Minerals report from yesterday. All precedents are confirmed as having been met. Just waiting on the final Mozambique government approval. It really shouldn't be affecting TGR's review of the Capex and Opex which was stated as being already underway as of 5th December (see below). It is more a case of having that certainty in a market that currently believes nothing until it is nailed to the floor and even then it finds fault because that's the mood at the moment. But it will change one day and positive progress can only ever help.

"As we progress towards completion of the transaction, we intend to further optimising the development plans for the Balama Central and Montepuez projects."

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1641324095336767489?s=20

@LondonIrish, TGR updated the market on cyclone Ana on 2nd Feb reporting reduced output for the FY to March 2022. They actually fell short of this by 200 tons.

They then updated the market in June to signal the 3-month delay to the Sahamamy expansion project and slower ramp-up at Vatomina. What they then clearly realised post this update is that weather-related delays would reoccur if they didn't adjust the method for moving ore from the mine pit to the processor. Hence why they then spent the second half of last year installing pre-concentrate units across both mine sites.

Was it clearly messaged? Not entirely. Have the company been proactive and achieved a valid solution to weather-related issues? Yes, I believe so because this has been borne out in both the 20th Feb update that clearly states that there was no significant damage to the infrastructure following cyclone Cheneso. So a first real solid test of the new set-up. Meaning the changes carried out last year have been effective in countering what was a strong cyclone. That's good news moving forwards.

As for cyclone Freddy whilst being I believe the longest cyclone duration in history its path was across the south of Madagascar and therefore not in the areas around the TGR mines. In addition, in the interview released yesterday, CEO Poddar made it clear that there was nothing to report on cyclone Freddy because it had no effect on the company's operations.

The message was clear in 29th December half-year report that,

"With the operations in Madagascar reaching the critical point we expect the future capacity developments in Madagascar to be built using internal resources and leveraging future earnings."

Since then they have lost a month or two but given the gross margin achieved even at just 1,700MT production there is more than enough slack to accommodate this. This is why yesterday's interview was so important because the message was that the ramp-up and production targets are on track along with the marketing plan for the additional production. This gives me confidence that cash can now begin to be built up and TGR can turn its attention to a debt package and indeed the commitment of further capex for the next phase. Although I do think they will want to bed things in for another 3 months or so before doing so.

With the cyclone season now drawing to a close the company now has a solid period ahead of it where it can extract serious production from its now-completed expansion and begin to build up cash reserves. What all of this change in 2022 also means is that TGR has learnt the hard way how to install these expansion modules and so they should get better at it both cost and time-wise moving forwards.

https://zakmir.com/zakstraderscafe-shishir-poddar-executive-chairman-tirupati-graphite/#gs.tdbpo7

Morning RiskIsReward,

No, I won't be surprised. This is a market that isn't giving any companies any slack at the moment although I stand by my belief that there is a seller driving this. The December statement on Sahamamy being in the "final stages of installation and commissioning with production ramp-up expected to be complete by end of January 2023" lends itself to things being very close to completion now. So I do wonder how far it can be pushed down before buyers say the value and risk-reward are now too tempting.

@Gallmat,
I agree on the DFS but it is water under the bridge now and when this 30,000tpa production finally comes through and can be demonstrated to deliver solid margins then that debate really needs to be parked. My view is that TGR has gone through a lot of painful learning about their Madagascar assets in 2022. Learning that perhaps would have been avoided if a BFS had been completed. But that isn't a given. There are very good examples out there of operating mining assets that have been greatly undermined by geological and weather-related issues. But that learning should now stand TGR in good stead for the next expansion phases because they have already walked the path which in reality is the best form of learning in this world.

In addition, the majority of that 8% of world supply call will need to be driven by the Mozambique assets and they are both BFS stage and so measurable in that manner. Be it that TGR will need time to revisit the studies and declare its intentions in terms of cost improvements. I trust they will be more clear in their approach there.

As I said yesterday post this ramp up and stabilisation + Mozambique close out TGR needs to clarify to the market what this all means for their metrics and plans moving forwards. That may come in stages but it is absolutely required given how little the market has had to go on so far.

But none of that takes away the fact that TGR will be a 30,000tpa pöroducer with two excellent late-stage projects aimed directly at a battery metals space that is beginning to look very short of the material it will need.

Something else you guys may be interested in is the improvements that have begun on the N2 road linking Antananarivo, to Tamatave which is TGR's main route to the port.

Will take a while to complete but great to see.

https://www.africanews.com/2022/12/04/madagascar-starts-works-on-first-motorway/

2/2
This being the website, production and cost guidance, quality of reporting and of course the Tirupati Speciality Graphite (TSG) acquisition. The last point is particularly sticky for some older and indeed former shareholders. Some believe that TGR has played them but I believe that TGR has simply not had enough time to move things forward due to the focus being on recovering production. It is something I have seen with other management teams of late. If you don't have steady profitable production then owning downstream processing is of no value because you can't feed it. So it becomes about priorities. I think many armchair investors have completely underestimated just how difficult it has been for junior miners to overcome supply chain, covid and inflationary problems these last few years. Many businesses have painted a positive picture but like the proverbial calm duck, their legs have been very busy underwater.

So I think TSG still comes, be it perhaps in a different form but it comes and we shareholders benefit. But TGR management does have to prove it and if they do then the business gains another feather in its cap and that multi-bag opportunity grows even more. One does have to ask oneself why Mr Poiddar was discussing downstream locations in the last interview as a pending news item if TGR isn't going to deliver TSG in some form or other.

Whilst I don't know all miners out there I still believe one would be hard pushed to find a 30,000tpa graphite producer who owns two BFS stage fully permitted mines that are trading (post-Mozambique dilution) at a MC of c. £36m.

It reflects how far out of favour TGR has become. It reflects the risk-averse nature of this market which is amplifying perceived faults and delays, and the mistakes and misunderstandings that have come to pass since TGR was listed. So the bet is that TGR is misunderstood and capable of delivering these two milestones and going on to improve its corporate and market standing vs faltering for longer. Because failing is for me not on the cards. These guys are too good with costs and stretching their budget to fail during this market phase. Post that for me the graphite market takes off driven by substantial shortages and then producing entities like TGR with significant advanced projects suitable for battery metals will be in high demand. However, that may well be the case already.

The market can criticise TGR for the things I have mentioned but nobody can deny the tenacity and cost-effective approach they have taken to reach this point in their development. That says a lot to me about where the risk-reward sits with TGR and is why I am backing them to make good. Because if they do get it right then from these sorts of levels the rewards can be really good. But as I said at the start it is for each investor to decide because such rewards never come without risk.

1/2
Morning all,

I appreciate having the opportunity to discuss/debate TGR because lately the interest on Twitter has faltered to say the least.

It is important to not ignore the fact that there are risks. TGR operates in a country with poor infrastructure that is susceptible to significant rainfall and cyclones. There are also questions about management's methodology because they have not taken the traditional study-based route to deliver their mines there. Hence why the completion of this next expansion phase and then guidance on production and cost are so important.

But I like to find unloved stories that can deliver me big returns based on solid risk rewards. I would not have had this chance with TGR if they had followed a more conventional approach. TGR wouldn't have the cost structure it has now and have come as far as it has without cutting a few corners and leaving a few things (temporarily) behind. Hence why the website hasn't been a priority and why the management team has been stretched in its duties. It is establishing whether these cuts were made with the right intentions and can be managed that decides things.

I am clear that TGR management is focused on costs and has stretched their budget extremely well to deliver a (soon to be) 30,000tpa production hub for a fraction of what others could do it for. I am also clear that their skills in designing and producing processing equipment are a really strong competitive advantage which is investable.

TGR management states that once this next phase is bedded in then all future phases in Madagascar will be financed through cash flows and debt. Each may take longer than planned. Similar to what we have seen so far but so long as the growth is self-driven without calling upon shareholders too much then my multi-bag opportunity is very much on.

The last major obstacle required to start this process is this next phase and indeed the closure of the Mozambique transaction. Yes, they may have had problems with the commissioning and even limited weather interruptions from the last cyclone in January (be it that it didn't come close to their facilities because I followed it every day) but it should be a minor issue in the grand scale of things. If it indeed exists.

Graphite prices may also pull back this year but even there I believe that TGR has enough slack in their production cost to counter the majority if not all of any sizeable pullback. Such that the current margin reported in Dec should be at least maintained. But I see that as my worst-case scenario and it still should not prevent TGR from gearing up for the next expansion phase later in the year once this particular phase is secured.

As unloved as TGR is at the moment it is so close to triggering a sustained re-rate. But having achieved these two major milestones management needs to start proving my belief that some of the corporate misdemeanours will be put right, now that more money will be there to right them.