Member Info for BigBiteNow

1/2

What much of that analysis is designed to do is establish how far STX can now push on without the need for more debt/capital and just how much capital will it take to get themselves to self-sufficient levels.

With Q4 2023 trending towards at least 50,000 in sales FY24 is well set up for 350,000 and neither goal is particularly punchy.

Those sales will ultimately drive a higher gross-to-net price in FY24 which again isn't testing at $160.

Cavendish has YE23 cash running at $21.9m but assumes full take up of the retail offer. I don't think it'll be fully filled so I have YE slightly less at $21m.

If we then apply the sales figures of 350,000 at an average 23% QoQ growth we get the following rough spread ;

Q1 - 61,750 @ $140 = $8.65m

Q2 - 76,260 @ $150 = $11.44m

Q3 - 94,180 @ $160 = $15.07m

Q4 - 116,300 @ $170 = $19.77m

Costs to run the business equate to $46m in FY24 and STX achieves 45% gross margins of total US sales once Vitra and Viatris are paid = $11.5m per quarter.

Q1 + Q2 would equate to $14m in losses leaving STX with c. $7m in cash by HY24 end.

Q3 would then deliver $4.8m in further losses reducing cash down to $3.2m.

Q4 would then deliver c. $2.5m in losses prior to Q1 2025 moving into cash positive.

What this points to is STX requiring some additional but likely final funding sometime in Q3 2024. Of course, if things go better than the metrics I have employed. Average price rises quicker or sales go sufficiently beyond 350,000 then they may well hold out until Q4. But I expect one final raise.

However, as demonstrated earlier a Q1 2025 running at 127,600 sales and just $180 gets STX very close to breakeven already with a first Viatris milestone just around the corner.

So in my opinion the additional finance wouldn't need to be more than $10m - $15m maximum and I am not ruling out a revision to the debt financing that allows STX to avoid further dilution.

But I do feel they will choose some equity likely similar to what we saw last week. So c. $6-$8m with the rest in debt.

If STX is running at c. 76,260 in sales (Q2 2024) and signalling 94,000 (Q3) then I cannot see how the share price (credit event aside) won't be running well into double figures. I also think the discount at that point can be pushed back against far better because of the progress but even with a 25% discount due to the credit markets in 2024 we should be talking a maximum 66m at 10p or possibly even 55m at 12p.

In a worst-case scenario, I would say $12m gets raised at say 10p delivering 98.7m additional shares.

But then that is it and the market would then need to start pricing in profitability, $30m of Viatris milestones and +$50m in China regulatory payments and milestones etc. With that then comes a revised valuation.

2/2

This belief is compounded by the knowledge that STX cannot hit 100% coverage. So the above calculation isn't true one because $240 isn't a measure of 100% coverage. This means that the starting $155 average should be higher. Furthermore, the gross AWP of $530 from (which STX derives their $240-$250 achievable figure) will naturally rise as we move through 2024/25. Cavendish has this at 3% per annum which adds $15 per annum fo which STX wold likely look to achieve half.

Also, hitting that average 23% QoQ growth in FY24 I posted earlier alone would mean 138,000 HY 24 sales vs. 210,000 in H2 2024. Which delivers a bigger influence from H2 and pushes the average achieved price for the year even higher.

So lots of solid evidence that management's belief in their ability to raise their average gross to net has validity.

More later.

1/2

Now we need to start thinking about their revised cash run and associated revenues/milestones that may influence it.

The new loan carries a $3m interest payment in 2024 and $4m in 2025. Even with limited growth the Norgine royalties will cover the majority of this in both years. But they will begin to be added to by KYE Pharma in Canada and possibly KP in Korea.

Milestone wise we have the following;

Norgine paediatric study at $2.3m.

KYE Pharma $0.3m.

KP Korea $1.9m.

ASK Pharma China $10.3m (Post Vitra 10% cut).

Viatris $30m in milestones at between $100m and $250m in sales.

Personally, I think the only one that comes in 2024 is the $0.3m from KYE Canada. But in2025 a whole host of these could land beginning with Viatris payments from late Q2/Q3. Cavendish has these evenly split $7.5m.

My conservative numbers call for $130 average sale price in H2 2023 and 80,000 sales delivering an FY 23 US sales of c. $13.5m (Cavendish $13.6m). Bear in mind that Q4 sales would make up 62.5% of that and it is from Oct that the prior new authorisation regime begins.

For 2024 STX should deliver $160 average achieved prices @ 350,000 in sales = $56m.

That equates to $69.5m in total US sales at YE24.

At 350,000 FY24 sales by the time STX reaches Q4 2024, they would be running at c. 116,000 and likely minimum $180 pricing.

Just a 10% further increase in sales in Q1 2025 would deliver 127,600 sales which if still delivered at $180 would mean c.$23m in further US sales. The total then would be up to $82.5m. Thus demonstrating that Q2 2025 should see the first Viatris milestone beaten. Now it may not be $7.5m but by that stage, it will be large enough to render future capital raises no longer necessary. Especially if it is combined with any of the other milestone payments listed above. Plus, further payments from Viatris will quickly begin to feed through as 2025 draws to a close which is timed very nicely with the end of the 9-quarter interest-only period for the new SWK debt facility.

What that all should demonstrate is that the debt facility and the interest attached really aren't a major concern given the milestones that will feed in + ex-USA royalty sales.

The gross to net can of course be questioned but it's not very testing. HY23 sales of just 26,400 with poor prior authorisations have already led to a 10% increase in total coverage to 50%. Another 80,000 in H2 2023 + likely close to 140,000 in HY24 will inevitably increase this further.

c. 60% total coverage alone should deliver $155 (based on a top figure of $240 vs. cash price of $25). But STX is adamant that a well-managed prior authorisation system adds far more to this. So STX is well capable of pushing the gross to net beyond $160 as the year develops.

With STX running at +50,000 in sales in Q4 quarterly sales would only need to achieve an average of just over 23% QonQ in 2024 to near as damn it achieve the STX bottom-end target of 350,000.

To place that in perspective Q3 is heading for +80% and Q4 likely 66%.

Look at it through actual sales and we are talking + 14,000 and + 20,000 in Q3 and Q4 2023. For 2024 we are talking 11,750 (Q1), 14,500 (Q2), 18,000 (Q3) and 22,000 (Q4).

So STX doesn't need to achieve very testing growth rates through 2024 vs. 2023 to hit their bottom-end target.

As 2024 unfolds the sales team is going to grow in strength and experience. Doctors' confidence in the product is going to continue to grow driving repeat prescriptions outside of the sales force. Furthermore, direct-to-the-patient should also begin to strengthen overall sales along with word-of-mouth effects on prescribers outside the 12,000 targeted by management.

The clear messaging throughout the presentation but also the broker notes I have seen so far is that this is all about demand. That drives prior authorisations which in turn delivers market access.

The sales growth is already happening and we haven't even seen what Q4 can truly deliver but it has got lost in the equity raise which has led to both anger and disappointment but also an overhang of shares. Be it small.

Soon enough the sales growth and what it ultimately means for average gross to net pricing is going to take centre stage once more.

Morning all,

Given the recent events, I have been looking at the available data and broker notes released to date and wanted to share my key findings here.

1. Looking at the STX forecast for Q3 it looks light to me, with a view that the company has essentially employed August data for Sept. The presentation made it clear that they only had July and August actuals and the growth between May and August averaged 26% MoM. In the Q&A the CEO also stated that Q3 could be higher than 28,400 but they feel "perhaps we can beat 80% but I feel pretty good about that number now."

Q2 US sales were 15,800. May grew by 28% and June by 30%. Impressive numbers. On that basis, the monthly sales figures can be calculated and June comes out at c. 6,670 of sales.

With May and June delivering an average of 29% July and August have to have delivered an average of 23% in order to satisfy the above statement. However, that is shared is anyone's guess but it really doesn't do anything to the end August result which would come in at around 10,050 in sales. July can be played around with with a result between 7,670 (15% increase) and 8,400 (26%) most likely.

So worst case scenario (unless July fell off completely which only means that August came back very strongly and would therefore have been highlighted as it would have been over 35%) we are talking c. 17,700 for July and August but more likely c. 18,400 if July and August were trending more evenly.

What that all says is that a 28,400 sales forecast is conservative and likely includes a September that simply repeats what August did. This is backed by the notion that having come up a little short on their original forecast for FY23 Shield management wouldn't want to get their very next forecast wrong.

This sales team is gaining in strength and experience each month. Q4 was always cited as the quarter when things really start to kick off. That lends itself to a strong growth performance in September.

At a further 20% the Sept figure should be coming in at c. 12,000 prescriptions taking total Q3 beyond 30,000.

Cavendish in their updated broker note agrees with this and has set their Q3 monthly totals at 8,000, 10,000 and 12,000 = 30,000.

What we also found out in the presentation is that the marker for August's actual data was 18th Sept because it's marked against their Q3 forecast. That lends itself to an actual Q3 update being released late Oct which is the pattern that has started to form already for Q1 and Q2.

What all of this says is that STX will at the very least hit their 28,400 Q3 target with the communicated numbers saying it should be beaten.

If September indeed hits 12,000 then that sets up STX to take out 50,000 sales in Q4 based on just 17% MoM growth.

I don't expect STX to be trading down at 7.5p when that lands.

Having gone through a number of emotions this morning and having almost sent myself stir-crazy trying to get my head around all the new information Shield has released I concluded as follows.

Yes, I am annoyed about the insider dealings yesterday and the fact that management has raised at 8p when it was made clear that funds were sorted until at least H1 next year.

But what really matters here is the product is selling and growth is coming through from the new expanded sales team and it is that that wins the day in the end. But they do need to improve the realised pricing. Actions for which today's raise is designed to fund.

The reality is that STX has now created a 12-month window to grow before they likely need to raise again but if they hit their targets that raise should be limited. Likely be the last one and come (yes even with STX discount bargains) at a higher level than we witness today.

I also noted in today's announcement that the Chinese phase 3 study is now back underway. Coupled with the Korean study that should mean that Shield receives +$12m in milestone payments in 2025. In addition, at $100m total US sales STX should begin to receive the milestone payments from Viatris in Q2 2025 based on their current sales trajectory. Stated as being $30m at sales between $100m - $250m. Combined they remove the notion that further finance is required in 2025. Assuming of course the studies are successful.

There is now a process to go through to clear these shares, dissipate the discontent and restore confidence. Time will help with that. I am not saying I need to forget what has happened here these last few days. More a case of placing it in the context of the investment and what it all truly means for its future. I would think Q3 and Q4 updates will help especially if as indicated the average sales price begins to trend north.

Lots of noise around. Lots of people trying to tell me this is a poor investment now. I don't see that. I see a poorly managed funding raise that someone should answer for but even then its not so bad that it derails my reasons for being here.

All my view only of course. DYOR etc.

Thank you Frankie1x.

Yes most interesting. Either he has just become very good or his numbers are demonstrating a significant uplift for group 1 (first 16 retained sales reps) likely driven by greater imbeddiness and stronger repeat business. A solid read across (assuming he isn't talking nonsense which I doubt given he is a lead mentor) to the rest of the sales team and Q3 I would say.

Those wishing to see his numbers need to go to his LinkedIn page and look under his Shield Therapeutics Territory manager section.

A lot of drama, hypothesizing and scaremongering today around the SP drop. I'm not expecting to learn much from the results because we know how much cash they have at HY end and that they expect it to last until cash breakeven in Q4 2024 in the 20th July update. The odds say that doesn't suddenly change when Sept figures (at least) aren't fully known yet.

If anything it should be in the presentation where we gain insights into how Q3 is going if indeed they are willing to talk about it. I remember the AGM was held right at the end of Q2 and there was no willingness to share numbers or even dates for release. So my expectations are low but I lean towards this news coming late October.

This is a highly volatile market and many games are being played. But logically I cannot see what could possibly be in the interim that would be so scary to drop the SP 20%. But perhaps there's something I haven't thought of. FEels more like fear over holding positions into results because as other stocks have shown it hasn't been going very well of late.

I've added a few at 10p with a focus not only on Q3 but Q4 around late January.

Just to clarify. When I say an average of 2.5 months I mean during the full Q2 period.

Remember that of the 98 sales reps in the field as of 30th June 68 of them had only been active for an average of c. 2.5 months. That's almost 70% of the total sales force.

4-5 months to get up to speed is the industry average quote from STX management.

Broker Hardman also believes April's sales progress was interrupted due to senior management being distracted with training and recruiting + it was only a 20-day working month vs. the norm of c. 22.

But that aside the key though is June when sales hit 6,670 for the month. During that month, those 68 reps had been in the field for an average of just 2 months. So half the minimum time required to hit full speed and STX still pulled off a figure that would give them +20,000 sales in Q3 if simply repeated across the 3-month period.

Is that likely?

In Q3 those 68 reps will have averaged 4 months each. Will they have stood still? I would hazard a guess that the first 2 months they are pretty useless due to the need to bed in and introduce themselves to the clients in their new area.

Interims are the front-end focus but Q3 update is where the action should truly start. Q4 (due likely around the end of Jan) would see those 68 reps averaging 7 months of service. That's when the real fun should start.

And none of this places any commitment on the first 30 reps improving their sales numbers despite the fact there are 30 of them out there with clients that are becoming more and more accustomed to the performance of the product, Which is what really matters in the end.

Morning everyone.

I have put together a thread on Twitter which may be of use to those invested or interested in STX. Since posting I did pick up on a comment or two around repeat prescriptions on ADVFN but it's not a platform I use so I will answer it here if I may.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1704149663618609307?s=20

If you read posts numbered 11 and 12 of the thread I make direct reference to marketing and client-driven repeat prescriptions and the fact that they aren't easily measurable. But by now they must be having some effect on the expanding sales impact of the earlier groups particularly group 1. However, I do keep in mind the CEO's answer to my Q&A question back in April that sales to date were entirely sales rep-driven. At some point that begins to change but likely will take time with the earlier impact groups most likely benefiting the most front end. That said I did allow 20% sales growth for the first 16 reps vs. top sales person Drew who claims to be running at 50%. So an overall boost of 20% did not feel too ambitious.

But as I said I wasn't attempting to capture the total number of likely sales in Q3. I merely wanted to demonstrate how little impact the entire expanded sales force had so far had on Q2 sales. As you will see from my numbers even a below-par further impact from groups 2-4 should lead to a big uplift in Q3 sales vs. Q2.

Hope that helps.

For those that don't read Twitter (X) Invinity's Matt Harper was answering questions from the Science and Technology Committee today on energy storage. It is well worth a listen as questions about the opportunities and challenges in the UK grid were dealt with. Matt was clearly the most engaging respondent and was very well-received by the committee members.

Most important for me was Matt's confirmation that the 30MWh LODES project is "expected" to enter manufacturing and construction in Q2 2024. I was becoming a little concerned about project timescales and cash flows being pushed out so this was very good to hear. Following Larry Zulch's recent comments I am confident there is still much more to come but with this project now expected next year's workload is already shaping up to be a marked increase on that seen in 2023.

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/9571cdba-d30f-4979-af73-9d29f95bb012

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1704085494756245661?s=20

There is an August presentation on the Shield Therapeutics website which I certainly hadn't seen before as they are normally recorded in the presentation section.

Worth a look.

https://www.shieldtherapeutics.com/application/files/6416/9243/4592/Shield_Corporate_Deck_Aug2023_Final.pdf

@Frankie1x

Thank you for this. I will certainly be cautious with any read across this time around given how wrong I was in Q2 but whichever way you look at it is a positive.

He adjusted his Q2 result from the previous 30% (which was also shared before the period ended) up to 35%.

That's a big hike for a leading rep when overall numbers were 'only' up c. 50%. We were told the 16 retained reps operating in Q1 achieved 8,500 sales. Even at the average of 531 (which he looks to be above) that would equate to 717 sales in Q2. That's over 4.5% of total sales. So if this is true then he is an exceptional performer.

If he then ups this by the 50% that he is currently claiming then that indicates that he's already running at 1,075 sales in Q3. He is of course far more established than his peers having been with the company since July 2021. But still, it helps support the notion that significant growth is coming in Q3.

This aside whichever way I run the numbers they point towards substantial further growth in Q3 as more and more reps become as bedded in as Drew clearly now is.

Thank you once again.

Hi Daveboy19,

I assume you were replying to my post?

If so then I never said revenues from other markets didn't matter. On the contrary, such funds can greatly extend the company's cash run and would be welcomed. But it doesn't matter in terms of the cash run stated by STX because those funds aren't specifically mentioned in the going concern. If growth in Norgine royalties or the Chinese approval had been taken into account then I am sure the auditor would have made STX management highlight it.

That said there may be an allowance for a small uplift in Norgine sales but it cannot be material enough or as I say it surely would have been highlighted.

The most likely cash injection comes from Korea ($2m) and Canada ($0.5m). Both milestone milestone-driven and capable of landing in 2024. But they alone would only extend the cash run by a few months.

The big one is China at $11.4m for regulatory approval but that cash isn't likely to land before STX achieves additional finance in H1 2024. So yes a great future cash injection but unlikely to be a major help in the next 9-10 months.

2/2

At that point even a small raise to see the business through 2025 (if required). Say £10m at 15p would be of little consequence because it will likely be the last one we would ever see prior to the inevitable buyout/sale of the business. It would also likely represent less than 10% of the total shares in issue. Such dilution if it delivers them to positive cash flows is well worth it in my view.

But quite frankly if the numbers are improving as rapidly as I have laid out above then a debt finance/royalty package could well be in the offing. I am merely pointing out what I feel is the worst-case scenario here and its one that investors really shouldn't be feeling negative about.

Whatever the case something will likely be in place around about May next year and certainly before the HY24 report is concluded. This likely gives the team 3 more quarters of reports (assuming Q1 2024 is issued in late April again) and so growth to deliver and demonstrate before it is finalised.

This is a big holding for me because of the above. I expect a much improved Q3 figure to be reported in October if we don't hear something at the interim and with each update I expect te share price to find a new higher base.

Nothing is a given in this game but percentages wise STX is a very good shot at a multi-baggereven from these levels.

After that, it's all about sitting back and waiting for the growth to hit and the SP to catch up.

1/2

Right now the STX valuation is all about the US. Improving royalties in Europe or indeed other regions would of course be welcomed but growth there isn't really factored into the cash run. So focusing on those markets as some sort of potential failure point is incorrect in my opinion.

In terms of the actual cash run, the going concern from the FY22 accounts is key.

"The recent fundraise should provide sufficient cash to allow the business to continue in operations for at least 12 months from the balance sheet date." They are dated 5th May 2023.

In addition, the same going concern statement says that,

" The Directors have considered scenarios in which sales revenues fall below base case forecasts. In these circumstances

mitigating actions such as reduction of discretionary selling and marketing expenditure could be taken to preserve

cash. The Directors also believe that other forms of finance, such as debt finance or royalty finance are likely to be available to the Group."

Personally, I wouldn't want to see a reduction in selling and marketing expenditure as it contributes to defeating the object here but I see that purely as an auditor requirement because finance options will be available. Hence why debt finance/royalty finance has been highlighted as it is clearly their go-to option.

As for sales numbers the clues are in the Q2 update.

Total prescriptions "over 15,800" and "May grew 28% vs. April, and June grew 30% vs. May."

This gives the following approximate monthly figures.

April c. 4,010

May c. 5,133

June c. 6,672

Total = 15,815 (over remember).

Based on the June figure alone with zero further growth, Q3 has a starting base of c. 20,000 prescriptions.

But growth through Q2 came in at an average of 29% MoM. Maintain even 25% through Q3 and 20,000 becomes 31,800 US prescriptions.

This outcome is in part backed by Hardman who after the Q1 figures came out forecasted the following average effective number of reps for each quarter.

Q1 = 22

Q2 = 34

Q3 = 65

Q4 = 100

50% growth in effective reps in Q2 delivered a c. 50% increase in sales. Q3 sees a 91.2% uplift in effective reps which would mean a figure around 30,200 prescriptions.

However, this figure ignores the progress that will have been achieved in the business (e.g. earlier reps expanding their customer base. Self-driven repeat prescriptions through the time elapsed meaning more doctors will have witnessed the full cycle positive results and so likely increased their willingness to prescribe without sales rep pressure. Remember also that "73% of the HCP's who wrote an Rx in Q1 '23 wrote another prescription in Q2").

On top of this, we have the effects of the marketing campaign which remember only began in May.

Whichever way one looks at the available data a much bigger number is coming in Q3 and an even bigger one in Q4

and that lends itself to a share price much further north than that we see today.

@RetiredBanker it is important not to lose sight of the fact that Serabi has hedged 10,215 oz of production at $1,800. Something the market seems oblivious to.

As of 2nd May that allowed Serabi to soak up a gold price as low as $1,585/oz before things got painful. Since then Serabi has enjoyed 4 months of sales at c. $1,954 average half of which is reported on today and has helped drive the $6m uplift in cash in HY23.

In the two months since then (July and August) gold prices have averaged c. $1,940/oz which just happens to be the exact same level achieved in HY23. This will inevitably have further strengthened their balance sheet and added further protection on the downside should gold prices dip hard. But let's face it this really should be all about a dip rather than a change of trend because a significant recession is coming and after said dip gold tends to do very well during such risk-averse times.

In addition, such pain in gold prices still takes time to play out. In 2008 it took 6 months for gold to complete its top-to-bottom phase in Oct 2008 before it started its major surge through until 2011. One could argue that the process has already started this time around with the recent high coming in early May ($2,049).

What I am seeing is a far more resilient Serabi with a strong enough balance sheet to ride out any pullback in gold (if it indeed comes) certainly until the point the Coringa licenses are received and finance secured + the Vale alliance results are well underway. Great risk reward at these levels given the fact that a lot of assumed bad news is already priced in.

For those who perhaps haven't seen it yet.

https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/serabi-gold-posts-strong-h1-2023-results-advances-growth-projects

Here are my thoughts.

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1697211764964745305?s=20

Clive is a true poker player and so gives little away but that is perhaps better than some of Mike Hodgesons pumpy displays.

Key takeaways are the Vale set-up and the fact that any gold deposits the alliance finds revert back to Serabi. This is worthy of note given where the drilling rigs have been active the last few weeks or so.

More importantly, Clive is clear that the Coringa licenses are coming. The Indigenous community agreement was clearly a key milestone. So now it's about getting the paperwork completed to allow the courts and public prosecutor (both of which have seen and accepted the indigenous community agreement) to rescind their block on new licenses to allow the installation licenses to be issued. A big moment in Serabi's future. Expected before YE it appears.

On Coringa

Debt is c.$5.4m less (inclusive of interest) due to repayment made in May 2023. See Q2 update.

SRB EV running at c. £11m which is utterly ridiculous given their net assets and progress now on scorings + Vale.