Member Info for BigBear2

np Phil, my biggest mess ups have always been not to consider all the possible outcomes, seems prudent to do that here.

To illustrate my example... For arguments sake lets say BOR decide to strengthen their balance sheet with �40 million. This would be more than enough to fund a Darwin appraisal. Lets say a placing of 2,000,000,000 shares @ 2p. that would give about 2.6 billion shares, not huge by AIM standards, and would give a fully funded BOR a market cap of �52 mill. The dilution would suck but an appraised Darwin could easily move to a �200 mill market cap from there. It also would also massively strengthen farm out discussions.... Just my opinion...

Phil hard to say how this will play out but all I will say is that big oil have deep pockets and a lot of patience. Bors biggest issue imho is they have not appraised Darwin , look at the amount of appraisal rkh have done to be in the brink of commercialising sea lion. I agree with wraith and have perhaps 25% of my target holding and will add once Darwin appraisal funding is known. If I had to take a punt I would say Bor would rather dilute massively then of course multi bag later again, they would rather do that than farm out ona krap deal. Doing so would also require huge II backing but I again list pvr as an example Only after they self funded the well did big players farm in

Phil I am not pessimistic quite the opposite it’s a fantastic medium to long term hold. I am merely thinking of all possibiliies to get the appraisal done

Phil I cannot see a sellout no way . This is not fogl and these lot are stubborn and believe Darwin is just the tip of the iceberg in the sweet spot of the basin. If it comes down to it I see them doing some sort of cash raise could even be one where the rig provider takes their fee as equity or worst case a massive fund raise plus consolidation. To me that is the risk of buying in at this silly price, they could do a gkp and wipe out equity holders to get an appraisal drill done.

Is to do a PVR and do a massive fundraise that would dilute current holders to oblivion and also likely require a consolidation. It's that or farm out and that seems far away....

Clearly the MMs feel there is no near term chance of a farm in. BOD run a tight ship hete and have cash for another 5 years or so. As ever a stalemate. Why should someone pay for a $40-50 mill drill when its multiples of the market cap? Also all figures presented by the BOD are based on internal modelling(admittedly verified externally) but by the BODs admission they probably need 2 appraisal wells pre development so full cost is closer to $80-100 mill USD.

Also pcl and sgc are not partners on Tulainyo drill..

II am aware of this, my point simply is the geology is perhaps more complex than originally thought.

Yup I also got that rude awakening of a SGC Ann. Unfortunately due to massive damage in sentiment here caused by unbelievable operator incompetence for most of us the best we can hope for is a break even exit from this shambles. Who would have thought a few months back we would be glad to get to 20p....jeez

Personally I was gutted today on the news as was really hoping for commercial rates from this zone. Quite clearly there s a lot of gas in place here, but getting it out at commercial rates is proving a tiresome and laborious process. I think they will eventually squeeze a commercial rate out of co-mingled zones, but ultimately this will need a frac. Ain't gonna be a quick win though...

That taking note of the Tulainyo results, it is becoming apparent why for years no one has bothered with these deeper horizons....tight rocks... 'Tulainyo 2-7 Gas Flow Test Program Update Testing has so far been conducted in two stages over a range of zones between total depth of 5,710 feet and 3,600 feet. Inflows of good quality gas at modest rates are currently being achieved but not yet measurable per zone. Although tighter or less permeable rocks than predicted may be a factor in the results so far, there is substantial data that continues to support the presence of permeable gas reservoirs

Still the waiting game then. Interestingly PCL gave an update on their test also, same issues low flow rates as well despite the potentially huge in place gas...

In short they need exactly the same kind of deal TOR has just done @ Barryroe for PVR... Eg, no cash element for them to fund. But as we saw @ PVR this comes at a cost - no share of production until the 'loan' for PVR's component of the drills is paid back. As per todays BOR RNS... Our current plan is to drill a well on Darwin West with a possible side-track. This would provide two penetrations of the main reservoir and would test additional reservoir intervals. So 2 drills, plus flow test, at a guess I would say this is a requirement of 70-100 mill USD.

Cheers but was aware of that, eg all in cost is circa 35/barrel. Problem is if oil goes sub 50 again this once again becomes a stranded albatross. Msg from BOD is loud and clear, we have an excellent asset but there is no farm out imminent. BOD are a patient bunch and will not farm out a multi billion asset on the cheap.

I guess with sea lion premier had already committed in a high oil environment. Still I have a few of these in my sipp so I am in no rush and will add if we go sub 3p

Phil as per Rns it’s now mid 30s

V strange rns... Stating that investment in traditional plays is still limited. The big issue here is that running costs are still mid 30s, which is not resilient to another downturn. No one is going to stump up 1.8 billion capes and risk being left with an uneconomical development... Any idea why it's so expensive when compared to Nigeria for the sample wher running costs are often around 12 dollars a barrel?

The Group has, however, recently been notified of a one off, immediate tax liability which, combined with the Group's existing cash flow constraints, would have a significant impact on the Group's liquidity. Accordingly, the Board has requested that trading of its shares on AIM be suspended from 12.30pm on 27 March 2018 whilst is seeks to clarify its financial position.

Not stopped just no trades !