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Banburyboy, Net Bank Debt was £21.8 million at 10 April 2024, not £28m.
PE firms also circling.
Also keep in mind Eldose Babu significantly purchasing shares in December 5p -5.5p region.
I’m of the opinion a bid of around 5p-6p is received, and excepted. Lower bid initially which is rejected and subsequently increased by 30%. Is usually the way these events unfold.
Open Offer to Qualifying Shareholders of Revolution Bars Group plc of 7 New Ordinary Shares per 8 existing Ordinary Share.
Applications together with payment in full must be received no later than 11.00 am on 30 April 2024
I am expecting the SP to naturally rise back to 3p, where we were before Sky news leaked the company in talks about fundraising. SP was False drop to 1.2p on fear of administration. Ask yourselves who leaked the info to Sky News, reported to be an investor. That investor knew the SP would tank on such news, giving them their 1p price per share if the fundraising goes ahead. Now that’s been agreed, SP can return to where it was just a week ago. Higher the SP now the better for the three new investors, a higher SP may put off a potential offerer in their eyes. Win win now for the three new investors, some of us may still win here also.
Banburyboy, I think the bank will have the final say here, not the three new investors. Will be sold before we get to September imo.
I also can’t get Eldose Babu out of my mind. I wouldn’t be surprised if he and his family feature here with an offer for the company. As we know Eldose was aggressively buying in December taking his shareholding to 17%, paying 5p a share. We learn this week that another family member has also been buying and holds 1.7%. I am of the opinion this was strategic buying in December, I refuse to believe an investor of this magnitude buys up 17% of a company on a whim. Time is on our side. This is going to get interesting imo
It isn’t particulate clear. However, the rights issue may never happen. . If there is a buyer and we are not holding we will miss out. I am confident we will receive an offer for the company, I therefore am choosing to hold.. I noticed Young & Co took a holding recently. They purchased City Group in December. They have enough finance behind them, and Rev Bars is currently cheap imo.
Last post from me for a while, going to sit back and see how events unfold. I would be happy with a part sale or full sale of the business, at the right price, and there is a possibility this may happen.
There is also a possibility Luke Johnson may get involved, interesting Rev Bars decided to name him in the recent RNS. Mr Johnson has significant experience in the hospitality industry, and especially for turning companies around. Any PI that hasn’t already done so should take a few moments to read up on Luke.
To suggest suppliers will now want money up front from Revolution is naive at best in my opinion. Rev Bars have not defaulted on any payments, why would suppliers therefore change their payment terms. Rev Bars increased turnover last year by £11.8 million to £152.6 million. £152 million is a significant amount of alcohol and food. Distributors (suppliers) to the Hospitality Industry will be facing their own challenges. Suppliers to Rev Bars will not want to lose the business, along as the current terms are being met. If anything, if approached to do so, it wouldn’t surprise me if certain distributors would reduce their margins and lower costs to keep the business, after all the supply to 58 bars and 22 pubs I would suggest would be a significant account to have.
Dom-Bella, it is my opinion your posts are deliberately negative, each and every one, in an attempt to present yourself an opportunity to buy in at a lower SP. I do not have a problem with that, we all have our own investing strategies. I was hoping for constructive conversation when asking posters their opinion on why Eldose was heavily buying in December. It is unintelligent to suggest an investor of his magnitude wasn’t aware of the rising costs approaching in 2024, namely business rates and payroll costs. This would not have just come as a surprise in the last 3 months as you are suggesting, it was widely known costs were to increase from the start of April 24. There was a good reason Eldose decided to buy up 16% of the companies shares. You and I do not know the reason, I do wonder however if this will come to light over the course of the next few months.
I’m sitting tight, hopeful that part or all of the business will be sold. I commented in December that I thought part of the business (excluding Peach Pubs) would be sold. There is hope. Eldose Babu was buying heavily in December, the last purchase on 21st Dec was over 5p a share and took the holding to over 16%. As an investor of this magnitude he would have done due diligence. I can’t get my head around the heavy buying from Eldose in December at 5p a share, fast forward just 3 months to 1p a share. Surely Eldose hasn’t just thrown over £1millon away in less than 3 months ! Surely he knows more than us pi’s ! What do others think ?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a takeover offer. Stonegate offered just over £100 million which Revolution rejected. This was in 2017, before the pandemic, but still shows how undervalued this currently is at £6.5 million MCap. I think for the right offer Revolution would consider selling the Bars to focus on the Peach Pubs / food side of the business themselves. Slightest whiff of an interest and the SP flys imo.
£24k buy went through way above the ask. 2.74 paid when ask was at 2.60. SP on the move again. Someone accumulating, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a TR1 in the coming days - Eldose Babu increasing his position in the company ?
Look at the Director Buys in October & November. The last Director buy was £170k @ £1.8685. I am sure the drop is not company related, the directors will know more about the health of the company compared to pi’s & ii’s. I’d suggest the drop is either sentiment related in general across the markets or could quite likely be the MM’s searching for shares to fulfil a large buy order (maybe another Director). This is the time to be brave, an opportunity to make money by buying at this level, or simply sit on your hands and ride this out. I’m not sure we have a company update at the end of the month, i believe the next update is due 12th March
I expect we will see a TR1 soon showing Eldose Babu continuing to add to his already significant holding, accumulating at this level.
Something positive happening in the background imo
Another £2.5m reduction in the debt since July. £4.8m reduction in debt since 6th March. These reductions in the debt are being made during the current ‘down trend’ in business. Suggests to me the overall business is not as gloomy as it would first appear when reading the latest RNS’s. I wonder if we see another TR1 next week showing an increase in Eldose Babu holding. I think we might ! I guess the SP is back in the range for accumulating. I strongly believe an offer will come for Revolution Brand, may exclude Peach Pubs which could possibly suit the current board !
I think Eldose Babu is still accumulating and the price range he is happy to purchase at is known to some. It matters not to the MM’s what the SP is, as long as they make their margin on the buy/sell. This will fly as soon as Babu has reached the percentage holding he is aiming for imo, and that is without any other positive news - Buyout offer etc. ..
£79.5k buy went through this morning at 6.71p.
I have a feeling an offer is on its way !
Peach Pubs expanding. The Three Horseshoes in Letchmore Heath, Radlett becoming the latest addition. On Monday 2nd October the historic pub was acquired. Why isn’t this being communicated to shareholders ! Seems there are some glimmers of positive things happening but Poor communication from the company. Very Poor !
Pain ........ why is that strange ?
Not everyone thinks like the childish posts / posters on this BB of late.
There is a great opportunity here imo.
Read the RNS’s , ignore the drivel on here (some of the posters can barely put a post together), and make your own mind up.
Those looking further than the end of their noses will do well here imo ........
I’m buying !
I too have made the same decision as FJGooner and sold out my Saga holdings in both my ISA and SIPP accounts.
I have felt very comfortable holding Saga and have every intention to rejoin ......... Roxbury’s influence to trade has been too much of a temptation ! ........ Only kidding Rox.
I have the same thoughts as FJ. I really cannot see the positive news some are expecting come Monday. Imo there will be little change for the majority of us, ‘some’ change to education but very little else.
The hospitality / leisure industry was the last to open back up previously, and it will be no different this year imo.
If I am right the market will react in a very negative way. If this happens I will be in a position to benefit from this.
If I am wrong and positive news is announced with regards to cruising, I will still be able to join the party and appreciate an increase, just not as much.
It will take Saga approx 3 months to pull together the crew and re-train them to include the new protocols. There will be plenty of ups & downs during this period.
Very pro Saga as a business to invest in ........ I just feel I may be able to gain more this time next week