Member Info for big-blue

In response to others posting and raising this issue;
My well informed sources tell me a fundamental change in assessment has happened at the highest levels. Putin is no longer regarded by anybody (including the French) as rational or stable in the sense he can be influenced by sanctions, battlefield defeats or threats the west may extend equipment scope supplies to Ukraine.

It is accepted that he actually believes he is now engaged in all out war with NATO physically on a battlefield, it isn't just a propaganda line. He believes reports of thousands of NATO tanks, rocket launchers and air craft are lying demolished on Ukraine battlefields and he/Russia is winning outright. He actually believes this is a reality right now. It is his cover to explain away the catastrophic defeat Russia has suffered so far and therefore doesn't have to acknowledge it. This is a high level psychiatric assessment.

In order to try and evidence this, intelligence suggests Putin is expected to try and extend the line of contact north of Belarus, most likely with false flag 'events' along the northern Finnish border and again with Latvia and Estonia but careful not to strike within those countries to avoid giving NATO grounds for a response. Kalingrad is to be attacked from off shore, most likely submarine launch when the spring offensive east of Ukraine starts for diversion. You can well imagine how these false flag events will play out against the recent propaganda line to Russian people. This is also designed to press the propaganda line with Beijing - although weirdly Moscow seems to think the Chinese are some sort of easily led idiots who don't have their own observers in every capital in the west and with spies and spy balloons all over the place looking for Putin's fantasy war with NATO.

I also understand that when, not if, NATO is finally pulled in it will be as a humanitarian operation, with agreement [orders???] from China that the campaign will not encroach Russia on the ground, but deep penetration from the air will be allowed eliminating practically all Russian air and air defence capabilities for many years to come.

You all think the US is behind this and setting the agenda. My well placed source tells me the puppet master is China and NATO/UN can not mobilise until China says so. It is a fascinating and credible twist.

"But if President Zelensky and the Ukrainian people can be persuaded that leaving the ethnically Russian areas of the Donbas as they currently are, in Russian hands, is the price for EU membership, then the other pieces of the ceasefire jigsaw puzzle may start to fall into place."

And when we get to this part at the end, we realise this is a private unedited blog by somebody who has a very poor understanding of the politics of the situation. In fact an earlier statement also showed this,
"The EU will ultimately follow the US position"
Huh? No chance. More likely the EU will find some alternative objection to any US line as it tries to be big and important and independent. EU will be huddled into one script through NATO commitment to the humanitarian ingress sanctioned through the UN on China's instruction more like.

"and the presence of a UN security force to monitor this may well be part of any proposed settlement."

The configuration will be argued over but if a buffer zone is created, the Russians will expect to be part of the UN force with no NATO and use it to actually annex part of the territory like they did in Berlin and latter Kalingrad. This part of the proposal will be just buying time by Moscow before they try to re-invade. Can you imagine Moscow's response to the UN wagging it's finger because the Russian 'blue helmets' simply elbow out any other blue helmets on land Russia wishes to take for it's own?

"sorry i dont have no relative working as cleaner at MI5"

Cleaner's get access all areas and tend to be around when the offices are empty in the dead of night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Other little snippet. The deaths of so many high ranking Russians on the battlefield is not by luck or accident. Those generals inclined to act or assessed to potentially act independently of Moscow have been manoeuvred into harms way and movements even leaked to Ukraine contacts to unsuspectingly do the deed on behalf of Moscow. The expectation that it will be the generals that call it off has diminished since the November withdrawal was stymied to a tactical retreat and a large gathering of senior military in Kherson was hit by targeted Ukrainian fire. I am told that the Ukrainians may have been unwittingly used (at several such gatherings) to eliminate the dissenting military movement which, if allowed to develop, may have resulted in a withdrawal by now back to 2022 boundaries.

Again, I find this an interesting twist and credible when considering the remarkably high attrition rate amongst the Russian military top brass. Needless to say, those left are somewhat less inclined to talk of ending the war!

My well informed sources tell me a fundamental change in assessment has happened at the highest levels. Putin is no longer regarded by anybody (including the French) as rational or stable in the sense he can be influenced by sanctions, battlefield defeats or threats the west may extend equipment scope supplies to Ukraine.

It is accepted that he actually believes he is now engaged in all out war with NATO physically on a battlefield, it isn't just a propaganda line. He believes reports of thousands of NATO tanks, rocket launchers and air craft are lying demolished on Ukraine battlefields and he/Russia is winning outright. He actually believes this is a reality right now. It is his cover to explain away the catastrophic defeat Russia has suffered so far and therefore doesn't have to acknowledge it. This is a high level psychiatric assessment.

In order to try and evidence this, intelligence suggests Putin is expected to try and extend the line of contact north of Belarus, most likely with false flag 'events' along the northern Finnish border and again with Latvia and Estonia but careful not to strike within those countries to avoid giving NATO grounds for a response. Kalingrad is to be attacked from off shore, most likely submarine launch when the spring offensive east of Ukraine starts for diversion. You can well imagine how these false flag events will play out against the recent propaganda line to Russian people. This is also designed to press the propaganda line with Beijing - although weirdly Moscow seems to think the Chinese are some sort of easily led idiots who don't have their own observers in every capital in the west and with spies and spy balloons all over the place looking for Putin's fantasy war with NATO.

I also understand that when, not if, NATO is finally pulled in it will be as a humanitarian operation, with agreement [orders???] from China that the campaign will not encroach Russia on the ground, but deep penetration from the air will be allowed eliminating practically all Russian air and air defence capabilities for many years to come.

You all think the US is behind this and setting the agenda. My well placed source tells me the puppet master is China and NATO/UN can not mobilise until China says so. It is a fascinating and credible twist.

Actually JN, everybody including the yanks would rather not have had this coming out of COVID. It is because the yanks were not involved and allowed Europe under France and Germany to try and divert conflict, that we are in this mess. It is a carbon copy of the Balkans. EU trying to be big and important and were instead walked all over - then it was Serbia, this time round Putin.

The Balkans were only sorted out when NATO finally went in and very unfortunately it looks to be heading the same way again. However, it will be very interesting to see just how much US boots and metal is used! Remember, the EU has the same delusions as Russia about being some great world dominating power and may try and use the inevitable NATO ingress as it's own EU army venture. The US will be there keeping the campaign on track though. But which troops will enter Moscow from NATO? It'll be French troops looking for Putin style hero conqueror glory. The others like the British will then have to go in and rescue them before leaving Russia to implode, with an almighty big bang.

Russia sells a very simple black & white narrative about NATO, Europe and the west. It is in fact a lot more complicated, we have plenty of Putin-esque characters around the member states in the soviet Europe. Think Brexit. Think all the ***exit movements around Europe. Think of the explicit anti-US rhetoric coming out of the EU from day one (the big one at the moment over this stupid net zero and US green import tariffs). It took 25 years for the EU to initial a US trade agreement.

And despite all that division to leverage, Putin succeeds in achieving the closest unity for decades and even new members to join NATO. This Ukraine folly is going to go down in the history books as an absolute humiliation for Russia, and it will be a permanent mark of failure.

The west has barely begun to furnish Ukraine with weapons. The contribution is token so far. 1 year on and only now a handful of tanks to be donated. If Russia thinks it is in anyway grinding down the west, it's in for shock. One year on and the west's inventory of munitions is only just starting to reach re-order levels and only now new orders to being placed. The west can well out last Russia at this snail's pace rate. The west isn't even requesting switching of production, the existing factories are more than sufficient.

Putin will either have his longed for war with the west and lead to Russia being occupied by NATO, or the propaganda cork will pop and back in Moscow and there will be civil war. As with all autocratic regimes, you can only peddle a false narrative for a limited amount of time. If the Soviet Union could fall without text, facebook, twitter or any form of internet, what chance of keeping up the ever expanding lie coming out of the Kremlin now.

But for businesses with any form of asset or association with Russia, if the war ended tomorrow there will still be a very long restitution, over many many years. Trust has been shattered. The likes of POLY might get some high volatility with some potential day trading moments, but the board have deduced they will have to relocate completely now. The delay in splitting the company last summer/autumn has backed them in a corner [intentionally for some] but for those thinking that allows some magic return to former status and listing - forget it. It's over in the west for POLY.

I am not the subject matter. Stop trolling the board and encouraging others trying to make me the subject matter.

Today has all blue sales so far. Surprised the rampers aren't flooding the board with hysterical rants or £10 tomorrow promises.

"South African Rand have fallen over 600% against USD in the past 3 decades but that hasn't affected companies like Anglo American which is heavily exposed to SA from doing business."

And, pray do tell, where is Anglo listed? What trouble does Anglo have contracting exchange services in London?

There is no correlation between SA and KZ.

oh no no no
chiquo, no!
You wanted an echo chamber and got Telegram. Don't you dare come on here whining about what you wished for.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/chinas-grim-future?mc_cid=6d365c3d56&mc_eid=177c4f2d97

Interesting observations on the 'new world order' prospects. The relevance is, if you are going to see pension size investments transferred to KZ and expect your dividends, or liquidity, to flow freely with little loss from there, you need a good hard think of what the prospects are for currency strength, exchange rates and local tax schemes. The prospects have always looked weak for me. To move your pension pot out of London to KZ is a major decision requiring some cool calm war gaming.

As for a long term London based GDR willing to hold POLY, I have yet to see one credible name posted or any clear indication there is even a shortlist of one. We all know how information leaks out in London so to have no 'quality rumours' tells me it is a no go and so if there is to be any remaining west listing it will be AIX - until a future round of sanctions cuts off that path!

stop trying to make me the subject matter and trying to encourage others to target me as the subject matter.

Wjt123

Posts: 98

Price: 2,647.00

No Opinion
RE: Drop today12 Feb '23

Joo you know broker ratings mean nothing

-------------------

Really?

Of note, the 1m trade seems to have been 'corrected' and there is one buy against a sea of sells for the day so far. I have a bad feeling about this.

Not suspended, quotes on iweb. It is now on SETSqx with a different pastern of auctions.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdr.asp

Note from the article a principle issue I have with overseas holdings, fx. That issue is significantly enhanced by the new world order business, and the political risk associated. Then there are the fees, even fees to simply hold let alone trade. Go and talk to a professional financial advisor. It maybe the best couple of hundred quid you ever invested!!!

Advantages and Disadvantages of GDRs
Advantages

GDRs help international companies reach a broader, more diverse audience of potential investors.
They can potentially increase share liquidity.
Companies can conduct an efficient and cost-effective private offering.
Shares listed on major global exchanges can increase the status or legitimacy of an otherwise unknown foreign company.
For investors, GDRs provide the opportunity to diversify portfolios internationally.
GDRs are more convenient and less expensive than opening foreign brokerage accounts and purchasing stocks in foreign markets.
Investors don't have to pay cross-border custody or safekeeping charges.
GDRs trade, clear, and settle according to the investor's domestic process and procedures.
U.S. holders of GDRs realize any dividends and capital gains in U.S. dollars.2

Disadvantages

GDRs may have significant administrative fees.
Dividend payments are net of currency conversion expenses and foreign taxes.
The depositary bank automatically withholds the amount necessary to cover expenses and foreign taxes.
U.S. investors may need to seek a credit from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) or a refund from the foreign government's taxing authority to avoid double taxation on capital gains realized.
GDRs have the potential to have low liquidity, making them difficult to sell.
In addition to liquidity risk, they can have currency risk and political risk.
This means that the value of GDR could fluctuate according to actual events in the foreign county, such as recession, financial collapse, or political upheaval.

"They have stated the dialogue with a depository bank is ongoing"

I seem to remember that was alleged based on some word play by rampers. There is no explicit reference or indication that there are any institutions in talks with POLY. If they were, it would be important enough to be direct about it and keep the market well informed.

In fact, the sentiment that nobody in the city was talking to POLY, then the clearing house issue, indicates the GDR route was a non-starter and even mentioning the option may have just been sweet talking to appear to be seen to be doing something and give an exit window for people not prepared to manage a holding overseas. And even if a GDR was set up somehow in a western exchange, I don't think it would be a long term arrangement given the redom and KZ listing choices already made. The plan looks more like an exit strategy out of the west.

" as world will be one and at peace with each other."

That sounds like the 5th shot getting to work. You need to lay off the sauce in case you accidentally fix the world. Then where would we ne?