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There are 2 moves left on the Chess board. Will Putin throw away a draw at the last moment?

Stay tuned for this and more exciting adventures on 'Trade it Today' [in color].

The last trading update was 5th November. Omicron hadn't hit home by then. You can not seriously extrapolate pre-omicron data through omicron travel lockdown. That is just absurd and delusional.

"inconprehencable "

Is this one of wordale things?

400km lol

Who says I believe a word coming out of the Pentagon? I did my own analysis of picture evidence yesterday and the stated location of forces on the Ukraine border as 400m north near the Belarus border, Yalka or something similar.

If Putin had requested UN blue hats in Donbas to protect ethnic Russians caught in civil war cross-fire on the grounds Nato were failing to protect civilians, he would created a pre-text to send Russian troops without insignia to act as ifUN, because UN would take years to put something together. I expected that course or similar but he missed the opportunity. That would have been a win. He has no boots on the ground in Donbas [new boots] but has propaganda victories, hence a draw. Nato has time to get its sh.it together and clear legislation for sanctions, as UK did last week.

Draw wobble, he poked the nato sleeping dog and it is awake and moving to restore old fortifications. He has talks in the direction and on some terms he wants re Donbas, but the element of surprise has been lost on his part and a future invasion will be against a prepared nato and sanctions regime setup just needing a flip of the switch. If he plays the democracy referendum card now, Donbas will be under Russian control in a year or two.

So sp just marking time. Waiting for clear thumbs up from Pentagon unless Putin's last move on the board is a rash one. He should consolidate and send out the handlers to the CND mob, now anti-whatever groups, and try and divide EU and ato ahead of the second chess game. He can draw or lose this game in the last two moves.

Will IAG price suffer with a drawn out campaign for the ownership rule to be implemented with the inevitable result that BA is spun off, or will the sp benefit by jumping early and spinning off now [results now]? Ownership has to be 51% European. Qatar has, what 21%?? If Qatar had to dump a very large % to an EU based buyer, what would the deal look like? I doubt Qatar would get much more than 150 per share. Lot of options to consider.

"Speaking to the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland, John Swinney said: “Essentially, we are being warned to expect very strong winds and heavy rain over the course of the next 24 hours or so.

“There may be a certain amount of a gap and then on Friday, a period of more wintry weather with Storm Eunice with the likelihood of some fairly heavy snow and strong winds again at the end of the week.

“Fundamentally, the next few days will be very challenging, with strong winds consistent throughout that period with the risk of damage that comes from that, and the onset of some wintry weather at the end of the week.”

He said the government’s resilience operation has now been activated, with transport providers, power companies, and public authorities “all planning where their resources will be deployed to be able to support individuals should we face some challenges.”

Swinney said the strong winds would “bring with them the danger of an impact on either transport provision, or the power networks or wider public services.”"

I will bet there will be virtually no disruption and this is yet another overhyped weather event designed to try and reinforce the climate change lie. You will see very little follow up of the devastation to come. If lucky, there will be some power outages, as there have always been in areas that haven't upgraded switchgear and loose cables. The weather ramping is worse than some [filtered] mega rampers on here. Yes, WORSE!!!

https://inews.co.uk/news/storm-dudley-time-when-hit-uk-today-met-office-wind-warnings-start-latest-weather-forecast-1463607?ITO=newsnow

Here we go again, big mega horror headlines for the weather, and will there be anything noticeable out of the ordinary? This is now becoming routine. The promised increase in extreme weather never happened, so instead of reporting on events the HAVE happened the switch is to events that might happen and leave the extreme weather potential in the mind without reporting on what actually happened. Will flights be affected? no. But cancelling trains is a nice touch isn't it. Seriously, a train is going to be blown off the rails in a 90 mph wind? And given that most trees have been cut from anywhere near train lines these days, there is no chance of leaves and trunks on the line. Next, in order to keep trying to ramp up the climate change fear factor we are going to see increasing bridge, road and airport closures for every gust of figgin wind that comes along.

http://www.tradearabia.com/news/TTN_393163.html

Not good news, too many airlines slashing prices or running promos when the industry is supposed to be well under capacity. Haven't heard much news on the number of routes for BA coming back, are they back to a full schedule yet or still restarting routes? Absolutely no news from BA at all. And the loyalty bonus? What is really behind that? It is not as if people are being rewarded for being run off their feet trying to handle the demand.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/02/16/fuel-prices-to-weigh-on-united-airlines-stock-in-the-near-term/?sh=242deb0e2f21

Ha, first article I see after posting the oil price is the issue. Underlines the principle we are returning to 'normal' trading conditions for a while.

Note oil is up today so bots will be calculating trades with that as a significant coefficient. So I will go with the bots are trading as they would if Ukraine wasn't headline. I.E. the 'priced in' market for a number of key variables, including IAG results is where it would be and market movements and margins will be more influenced by other market conditions. It's a bots market today.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20220216IPR23404/roberta-metsola-on-ecj-ruling-rule-of-law-is-non-negotiable

Whilst many of you will not think this will have any impact on the airline sector or IAG, think again. The commissions version of 'respecting the rule of law' is carte blanche. It means the greens in the EU will claim extreme environmental policies are the law and not applying the policies is in breach and therefore funds can be withheld. This seemingly small aside ruling mostly designed to protect EU sympathetic judges in Poland from being disciplined for erroneous behaviour [and some issues in Hungry] is actually to be used to 'enforce' a whole raft of quasi rules expressed as laws and the Greens have their sights very firmly set on public enemy number 1 - airlines. This is an issue you won't hear too much about in the headlines of mainstream media, but to not understand the likely impact in the near future would be amiss!

bots walking the sp down in the sector today. A bit of profit taking, shaving off a little to line the coffers ready for the next wave?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40809321.html

I'd like to hear remainers argue why this would have been good for the UK still stuck in the Soviet Europe whilst it continues to tighten it's grip around the throats of the member states.

I didn't write the article!

HSBC analyst Andrew Lobbenberg says that Germany and France are pursuing a reinstatement of this rule, which would force IAG to spin off British Airways into a separate company. As Lobbenberg explains ‘National interests are ever present in the airline industry…the commercial interests of Air France-KLM and Lufthansa would unquestionably be supported by adding new strategic challenges to IAG.’

He does say that Spain, Ireland, and Hungary would argue in favour of the current status quo. However, this leaves the IAG share price at the mercy of political negotiations that have not always worked out in the UK’s interests."

same article.

One thing for sure, if you want in on any BA spin off, you will be much better off as a holder. What happens when the market values your new shares compared to the relative IAG value is another discussion.

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/iag-share-price-could-fly-as-travel-restrictions-loosen-220215#information-banner-dismiss

You will like;
"The IAG share price was worth 623p just before the pandemic struck. It could be flying back to this price point shortly."

but not like;
" the eventual result of ongoing talks between the UK and EU on the post-Brexit settlement, which could see EU airline ownership rules reinstated. According to EU regulations, which were suspended post-Brexit, airlines operating in the bloc must be ‘owned and controlled’ by EU companies."

The breakup of IAG is being referenced in generic articles. Given the prime movers of reinstating ownership rules is France and Germany, you can price in that BA being spun off is a cert. That will decimate IAG share price, but it could be only IAG holders will get their snout in the BA spin off trough!!!!